Off the Red Carpet – Week of 10/10 – 10/17

With “Argo” now in tow (my 3.5 star review), the Oscar race is starting to flesh out. Only a handful of films that will be major contenders for any awards have not yet been screened at festivals or to the press, those being “Les Miserables,” “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Django Unchained,” “The Hobbit,” “Hitchcock” and “Promised Land.” The question will be if “Argo” has the legs to go all the way given its somewhat middling performance at the box office (it earned about $19 million and was #2 behind “Taken 2”). It’ll surely get a Best Picture nomination and likely more, but only time will tell.

Here then is an updated look at some of the news of the week and a slightly tweaked list of predictions.

 “Flight” premieres at NYFF closing night

Robert Zemeckis’s first live action film since “Cast Away” is already being celebrated as great, complex studio filmmaking. Its strong outing practically cements Denzel Washington as a serious contender for Lead Actor and also has put John Goodman in the supporting conversation thanks to his other appearance this week in “Argo.”

Documentary Shorts Category has shortlist revealed

Eight short films have been selected as the potential five Oscar nominees from a list of 31 eligible titles. The list is as follows: (via Indiewire)

“The Education of Mohammad Hussein,” Loki Films
“Inocente,” Shine Global, Inc.
“Kings Point,” Kings Point Documentary, Inc.
“Mondays at Racine,” Cynthia Wade Productions
“Open Heart,” Urban Landscapes Inc.
“ParaÍso,” The Strangebird Company
“The Perfect Fit,” SDI Productions Ltd.
“Redemption,” Downtown Docs

“The Dark Knight Rises” in the hunt

Warner Bros. announced their For Your Consideration campaign this week, with the big surprise being the campaign for Anne Hathaway and “The Dark Knight Rises.” Hathaway’s role as Catwoman is being sold as a lead performance, which means she could find a spot in a slim field and be poised to not compete with herself in the supporting ranks for “Les Miserables.” See the whole Warner Bros. campaign.

James Gandolfini has secret part in “Zero Dark Thirty”

I’ll just leave this here. (via Entertainment Weekly)

Michael Moore comments further on controversial documentary branch

Michael Moore, never one to usually be opinionated and vocal (cough, cough), made further criticisms/explanations about his expectations regarding the new rules for nominating films in the Best Documentary category of the Oscars. He was a proponent for the new rules that make the nominating process more inclusive, but he feels certain films have taken advantage of these possibilities, leaving for a crop of films, 160 roughly, that is just too big a mountain to conquer. At the same time, he hopes to expand the number of voting members in the documentary branch for next year’s awards season. (via Indiewire)

Week 2 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

Front Runners

Silver Linings Playbook

Argo

Lincoln

Life of Pi

Les Miserables

Probables

Hitchcock

Zero Dark Thirty

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Amour

The Master

Flight

Long Shots

The Dark Knight Rises

Not Fade Away

Moonrise Kingdom

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

The Sessions

Promised Land

The Impossible

The Hobbit

Rust and Bone

Some good NYFF press for “Not Fade Away” and “Flight” makes each movie a more likely contender. I’ve also added “The Dark Knight Rises” to the list of long shots. Warner Bros. made clear in their For Your Consideration campaign that they have not forgotten about it.

 

Best Actor

Front Runners

Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

John Hawkes – The Sessions

Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Denzel Washington – Flight

Probables

Anthony Hopkins – Hitchcock

Matt Damon – Promised Land

Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables

Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour

Long Shots

Richard Gere – Arbitrage

Jamie Foxx – Django Unchained

Jake Gyllenhaal – End of Watch

Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson

Jack Black – Bernie

If Denzel is in, then who do you kick out? I’m saying Hopkins for now since no one’s seen “Hitchcock.”

 

Best Actress

Front Runners

Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone

Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Helen Mirren – Hitchcock

Probables

Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Keira Knightley – Anna Karenina

Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Smashed

Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Long Shots

Halle Berry – Cloud Atlas

Anne Hathaway – The Dark Knight Rises

Meryl Streep – Hope Springs

Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea

One movie I’ve heard a lot about in the past week is the indie “Smashed,” about a struggling marriage after the wife, Mary Elizabeth Winstead (“Scott Pilgrim vs. The World”), quits drinking, alienating her free spirited attitude she shared with her husband, played by Aaron Paul of “Breaking Bad.” There’s definitely a push for her.

 

Best Supporting Actor

Front Runners

Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Alan Arkin – Argo

Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

John Goodman – Argo/Flight

Probables

Jude Law – Anna Karenina

Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained

William H. Macy – The Sessions

Irrfan Kahn – Life of Pi

Jim Broadbent – Cloud Atlas

Long Shots

James Gandolfini – Zero Dark Thirty

Aaron Paul – Smashed

Omar Sy – The Intouchables

Dwight Henry – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Russell Crowe – Les Miserables

Matthew McConnaughey – Magic Mike

Michael Caine – The Dark Knight Rises

Michael Fassbender – Prometheus

I still can’t say what John Goodman will be nominated for, but he’s probably one of the most likeable, popular actors right now without one. Don’t forget he’s also in “Trouble With the Curve.” This is his year. I’m also taking a shot in the dark on Gandolfini. No one knows how big really anyone’s part will be yet.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Front Runners

Amy Adams – The Master

Helen Hunt – The Sessions

Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Sally Field – Lincoln

Probables

Jackie Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Long Shots

Frances McDormand – Promised Land

Judi Dench – Skyfall

No changes here.

 

Directing

Front Runners

Ben Affleck – Argo

David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Tom Hooper – Les Miserables

Ang Lee – Life of Pi

Probables

Robert Zemeckis – Flight

Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master

Michael Haneke – Amour

Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty

Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom

Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

Gus Van Sant – Promised Land

Long Shots

David Chase – Not Fade Away

Dustin Hoffman – Quartet

Ben Lewin – The Sessions

Joe Wright – Anna Karenina

Just a few little shake-ups.

 

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