I took a week off last week, despite there being at least one piece of gigantic movie news, perhaps not Oscar relevant, but enough to make nerds on Twitter (myself included) flip out for better or worse.
But with the election now firmly behind us, I can focus on a race with just one president running (“Lincoln”).
President Obama defeats Mitt Romney in Presidential Election
Hey! Guess what? Now funding for “Sesame Street” and PBS won’t be cut and young kids will still like the movies and art for future generations!
Disney buys Lucasfilm for $4 billion, plans to make “Star Wars Episode VII”
“Star Wars” is now coming back in 2015, and I couldn’t be more disappointed. Even if “Star Wars” has become something of a joke since the prequels and having the “Star Wars” name on your product in fact makes it worse, the “Star Wars” series, with George Lucas’s muddy fingers and all, had become bad but never boring.
For Disney, who also owns Marvel, to plan to release “Star Wars VII” in the same year as “The Avengers 2,” is to make it into another tentpole blockbuster and popcorn movie that will be instantly forgotten as soon as people walk out of the theater.
Rumors are now spilling in that Matthew Vaughn (“Kick-Ass,” “X-Men: First Class”) is in talks to direct, Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill and Carrie Fischer are all interested in reprising their roles, and George Lucas is supposed to still be a “consultant,” whatever that means. These are telltale signs that this is not going to be an interesting film that takes the franchise in a new direction but one that is sheer fanboy baiting. (via Collider)
21 films eligible for Best Animated Feature
The number of animated movies considered eligible each year for the Best Animated Feature Oscar dictates the number of nominees the category will have, three or five, and five will definitely be the winning number this year based on 21 films meeting the Academy’s requirements. This says to me that Disney could very well have three potential nominees this year with “Brave,” “Wreck-It Ralph” and “Frankenweenie.” Expect buzz for “Rise of the Guardians” and one of the Gkids (“The Secret of Kells,” “Chico and Rita”) distributed entries. (Full list via In Contention)
Box office numbers bode well for “Wreck-It Ralph,” “Flight,” “Argo”
In a big surprise, Disney’s “Wreck-It Ralph” trounced the weekly competition by raking in nearly $50 million on its opening weekend, double that of Robert Zemeckis’s “Flight,” a number that’s really nothing to scoff at. “Argo” also performed well in its third week by making $10 million, proving that this is a movie generating money by word of mouth that has the legs to go all the way to a Best Picture prize. Doing less well was “Cloud Atlas,” which in two weeks has only brought in $18 million of its over $100 million budget. (via Box Office Mojo)
“Hitchcock” premieres at AFI Film Fest
Film buffs are eagerly awaiting the movie “Hitchcock,” for obvious reasons, and early reviews of the movie say that although Anthony Hopkins and Helen Mirren provide their characters with range and depth, first time feature director Sacha Gervasi’s film is a lightweight entry that feels clunky at times and goes against the grain of what people actually know about Hitch. They also now have HBO’s “The Girl” to compare it against, which likewise received poor reviews by painting Hitchcock as little more than a peeping tom.
European Film Awards and British Independent Film Awards announce nominees
“Amour,” “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,” “The Intouchables,” and “The Imposter” are all among the nominees in two of Europe’s smaller award races, the European Film Awards and the British Independent Film Awards. The former nominated films that won’t get an American distribution this year and the latter nominated films that got American distribution last year. See the full lists here and here. (via In Contention)
Week 4 Predictions Chart
This week I’m adding in some preliminary Screenplay predictions since the rest of the field is unchanged in my mind.
Best Original Screenplay
Front Runners
Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
The Master – Paul Thomas Anderson
Amour – Michael Haneke
Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal
Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
Probables
The Intouchables – Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano
Flight – John Gatins
Magic Mike – Reid Carolin
Looper – Rian Johnson
Seven Psychopaths – Martin McDonagh
Promised Land – Matt Damon, Dave Eggers, John Krasinski
Long Shots
Smashed – James Ponsoldt, Susan Burke
Arbitrage – Nicholas Jarecki
Take This Waltz – Sarah Polley
I’m actually only really certain about one movie on this list, and that’s “Moonrise Kingdom.” I would be shocked if he didn’t make the cut here, but the others are based off the fact that they are either old Oscar favorites (Mark Boal, Tarantino) or are this year’s hopefuls (“The Master,” “Amour,” “The Intouchables”). I’m frankly more interested in the long shot upsets that could include the much deserved “Looper” or “Seven Psychopaths.” If “Margin Call” was any indication last year, the screenplay category has less to do with politicking than many of the other categories and will recognize quality above all.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Front Runners
Argo – Chris Terrio
Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell
Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeithlin
Lincoln – Tony Kushner, John Logan, Paul Webb
The Sessions – Ben Lewin
Probables
Life of Pi – David Magee
On the Road – Jose Rivera
Anna Karenina – Tom Stoppard
Les Miserables – William Nicholson
The Perks of Being a Wallflower – Stephen Chbosky
This is 40 – Judd Apatow
Long Shots
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel – Ol Parker
Hitchcock – John J. McLaughlin
Cloud Atlas – Tom Tykwer, Andy and Lana Wachowski
The thing that gets people about the Adapted Screenplay category is that there’s often some confusion as to what implies adapted. Usually the belief is that the Academy recognizes adaptations of classic books or plays (see “Precious,” in years past and “On the Road,” “Anna Karenina” and “Life of Pi” this year). But that’s not always the case, and this year you actually have to films based on articles (“Argo” and “The Sessions”) one on a short story (“Beasts”) and one on American history (“Lincoln”). For all intensive purposes these screenplays are original, and their intensive craft and dialogue bolster their chances. “Beasts” and “Argo” aren’t exactly known for their scripts, so they may be ousted by something more bookish, but if “Argo” wants to call itself a Best Picture front runner, it will almost certainly have a screenplay nod.
Best Picture
Front Runners
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Probables
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Amour
The Master
Flight
Long Shots
Hitchcock
The Dark Knight Rises
Not Fade Away
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
The Sessions
Promised Land
The Impossible
The Hobbit
Rust and Bone
I’m dropping “Hitchcock” from the probables category to being a long shot based on its very early AFI performance.
Best Actor
Front Runners
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington – Flight
Probables
Anthony Hopkins – Hitchcock
Matt Damon – Promised Land
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Long Shots
Richard Gere – Arbitrage
Jamie Foxx – Django Unchained
Jake Gyllenhaal – End of Watch
Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson
Jack Black – Bernie
Denis Lavant – Holy Motors
Best Actress
Front Runners
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Probables
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Keira Knightley – Anna Karenina
Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Smashed
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Long Shots
Anne Hathaway – The Dark Knight Rises
Meryl Streep – Hope Springs
Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
Jessica Chastain is now definitely going lead in “Zero Dark Thirty,” so there’s a good shot for her, but again, no one has seen the movie yet. Also, the film has pushed back its wide release to January 2013, so it’s possible that not all Oscar voters will get to see it when they need to.
Best Supporting Actor
Front Runners
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
John Goodman – Argo/Flight
Probables
Jude Law – Anna Karenina
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
William H. Macy – The Sessions
Irrfan Kahn – Life of Pi
Jim Broadbent – Cloud Atlas
Long Shots
Chris Tucker – Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Holland – The Impossible
James Gandolfini – Zero Dark Thirty
Aaron Paul – Smashed
Omar Sy – The Intouchables
Dwight Henry – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
Russell Crowe – Les Miserables
Matthew McConnaughey – Magic Mike
Michael Caine – The Dark Knight Rises
Michael Fassbender – Prometheus
Javier Bardem – Skyfall
Here I would say Jim Broadbent is really the only one to watch to potentially steal away that fifth spot from either Goodman or Arkin.
Best Supporting Actress
Front Runners
Amy Adams – The Master
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Sally Field – Lincoln
Probables
Judi Dench – Skyfall
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Jackie Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook
Long Shots
Frances McDormand – Promised Land
Having still not seen it and getting very anxious, I’m hearing a lot of buzz about Judi Dench in “Skyfall.” This is a thin category, and it’s very likely that Weaver will be out or she can even bump out her costar Maggie Smith from “Best Exotic.”
Directing
Front Runners
Ben Affleck – Argo
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Probables
Robert Zemeckis – Flight
Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
Michael Haneke – Amour
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom
Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Gus Van Sant – Promised Land
Long Shots
Juan Antonio Bayona – The Impossible
David Chase – Not Fade Away
Dustin Hoffman – Quartet
Ben Lewin – The Sessions
Joe Wright – Anna Karenina