We’re at the point where there’s going to be a big movie opening every week until the end of the year now, so get excited.
“Skyfall” has biggest Bond opening ever
“Skyfall” earned $86.7 million at the Box Office this weekend, sending it on its way to trounce even the inflation added record of the fourth Bond, “Thunderball.” It’s popular appeal as well as its just plain awesome quality has lead some to speculate the possibility of nominating Judi Dench, Javier Bardem and Roger Deakins for their respected Oscars, as well as a push for the movie itself for Best Picture. It’s a long shot, but I would be on board.
Best Animated Short shortlist revealed
Could we soon be saying, Oscar Winner Maggie Simpson? The shortlist for the Best Animated Short category was revealed last week, and it includes “The Simpsons” short “The Longest Daycare” and the lovey Disney short “Paperman.” The Pixar short film this year that screened before “Brave,” “La Luna,” was nominated and lost last year. But I can guarantee you now that the little underdog movie no one’s heard of and no one will see will almost definitely win this category. Here’s the full list: (via In Contention)
“Adam and Dog”
“Combustible”
“Dripped”
“The Eagleman Stag”
“The Fall of the House of Usher”
“Fresh Guacamole”
“Head over Heels”
“Maggie Simpson in ‘The Longest Daycare'”
“Paperman”
“Tram”
Christoph Waltz in Best Actor race
I said last week that for some reason people already want to count “Django Unchained” out of the race before anyone’s even seen it. Why no one would consider Christoph Waltz owning “Django” just like he did “Inglourious Basterds” is beyond me, but the difference this year is that he’s being pushed for the Lead Actor race now rather than supporting. Yes, it’s a crowded field, but he was just that good before, and I don’t see why he can’t be again. This also means that Leonardo DiCaprio and even Samuel L. Jackson are people to keep an eye on in the Supporting race. (via In Contention)
The Hollywood Reporter Airs Annual Actor Roundtable
Each year The Hollywood Reporter puts together an extended interview roundtable with a collection of actors, usually Oscar hopefuls for that year. Last year they interviewed George Clooney, Viola Davis, Christopher Plummer, Charlize Theron and Michael Fassbender, and this year they’ve interviewed Jamie Foxx, Matt Damon, Denzel Washington, Richard Gere, Alan Arkin and John Hawkes. All six are potential Oscar candidates for acting, three more likely than the others, but their discussion veered much more intellectual. They talked acting on stage, what they would do if they couldn’t act, family and whom they admired. It’s a stirring hour-long discussion between smart actors being very candid in a setting you won’t see anywhere else. (via The Hollywood Reporter)
Gurus ‘O Gold released
The Gurus ‘O Gold have been my go to barometer for Oscar predictions for the last few years. Collectively, they are probably better at anticipating the awards and forecasting changes than any one of them individually. This is their first time forecasting the major categories this year since Toronto. Things are bound to change as a few other movies set in and are seen by the public, but the universal consensus right now is unsurprisingly “Argo,” followed closely by TIFF winner “Silver Linings Playbook.” The surprise I see in the list is the inclusion of “Flight” in 10 spot and “Moonrise Kingdom” on the outs. 10 is probably a generous number for nominees anyway. Take a look at the full list if you’re like me and love charts and spreadsheets and stuff, and avoid it if you think it has the potential to suck all the fun out of the Oscars. (via Movie City News)
Will Best Picture match Screenplay?
A blogger at “Variety” observed that last year was a surprising anomaly in the trend for nominees for Best Picture and Best Original or Adapted Screenplay. The movie with the BP nod always gets the screenplay nod, with historically very few exceptions. Last year alone matched the last 10 years in terms of gaps between the two categories, and it’s worth noting that this year may go the same. “Moonrise Kingdom,” “The Master,” “Amour,” “Django Unchained,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and “The Sessions” are all questionable nominees for Best Picture, and that’s just listing the front runners in the screenplay races. (via Variety)
Ben Affleck to receive “Modern Master Award”
For a guy gunning for an Oscar for Best Director with a film set in the ‘70s, it’s got to feel good to win an award called the “Modern Master Award” at the Santa Barbara International Film Festival. Ben Affleck will receive the award on January 26, conveniently not long before the Oscar ceremony itself. (via The Race)
Week 5 PredictionsBest Picture
Front Runners
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Probables
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Amour
The Master
Flight
Long Shots
Skyfall
Hitchcock
The Dark Knight Rises
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
The Sessions
The Impossible
The Hobbit
I think “Skyfall” is now a serious contender in the Best Picture race, probably more serious than either “The Dark Knight Rises” or “The Hobbit.” I still think “Moonrise Kingdom” is a fairly sure thing (more so than “Beasts”) even if the Gurus O’ Gold don’t. I am however listening to them and striking “Not Fade Away,” “Rust and Bone” and “Promised Land” from my list of long shots. I’ve also seen “Flight” now, and although I love it, I don’t see it happening.
Best Actor
Front Runners
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington – Flight
Probables
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
Anthony Hopkins – Hitchcock
Matt Damon – Promised Land
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Long Shots
Richard Gere – Arbitrage
Jake Gyllenhaal – End of Watch
Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson
Jack Black – Bernie
Denis Lavant – Holy Motors
Christoph Waltz is now in this race. If he really has a spot is hard to say. This news was announced after the Gurus announced their picks, so I think the next chart will have some shakeups. And really, the movie just needs to open already.
Best Actress
Front Runners
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Probables
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Keira Knightley – Anna Karenina
Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Smashed
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Long Shots
Anne Hathaway – The Dark Knight Rises
Meryl Streep – Hope Springs
Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
Maggie Smith – Quartet
So it looks like Judi Dench in “Best Exotic” isn’t happening anymore. I’m not sure why, but the Gurus don’t even have her on their radar. I’m hearing a lot of great stuff about Emmanuelle Riva in “Amour,” that she’s a legacy actor that the aging Academy will remember from years ago, possibly taking away Helen Mirren’s place in “Hitchcock.” There are also a bunch of people holding out faith that Naomi Watts in “The Impossible” is happening. Anthony Breznican of EW has her as the number one most likely nominee, but I don’t buy it having seen the movie myself.
Best Supporting Actor
Front Runners
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Probables
John Goodman – Argo/Flight
Samuel L. Jackson – Django Unchained
Javier Bardem – Skyfall
Matthew McConnaughey – Magic Mike
Jude Law – Anna Karenina
William H. Macy – The Sessions
Irrfan Kahn – Life of Pi
Jim Broadbent – Cloud Atlas
Long Shots
Chris Tucker – Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Holland – The Impossible
James Gandolfini – Zero Dark Thirty/Not Fade Away
Aaron Paul – Smashed
Omar Sy – The Intouchables
Dwight Henry – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Russell Crowe – Les Miserables
Michael Caine – The Dark Knight Rises
Michael Fassbender – Prometheus
With Waltz out of the Supporting race, it frees up votes for Leo, so he’s moving up a bracket, whereas Goodman, who is excellent in “Flight,” has a very small part and is outshone by Arkin in “Argo.” Leo could still face competition from Samuel L. Jackson once the movie is seen though. Matthew McConaughey has had such a good year that he’s seeming more and more likely to be recognized. I really love his work in “Bernie” personally. And like I said, pay attention to Bardem. His performance in “Skyfall” will remind people of Anton Chigurh for better or worse, either that he was even better in “No Country” or that he really is a terrific actor and deserves recognition again. All my other long shots at this point are practically wishful thinking.
Best Supporting Actress
Front Runners
Amy Adams – The Master
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Probables
Judi Dench – Skyfall
Jackie Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook
Kelly Reilly – Flight
Long Shots
Frances McDormand – Promised Land
Kerry Washington – Django Unchained
Shirley MacClaine – Bernie
God this is an awful category this year. The Gurus were all over the place trying to even come up with five names, so there’s a lot of One Vote Wonders on their list. Anne Hathaway was adorable on “SNL” this week and is on a lot of people’s radar. Plus, Breznican of EW has seen “Les Mis” already and seems to confirm that she is awesome.
Directing
Front Runners
Ben Affleck – Argo
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Probables
Robert Zemeckis – Flight
Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
Michael Haneke – Amour
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom
Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Gus Van Sant – Promised Land
Long Shots
Juan Antonio Bayona – The Impossible
David Chase – Not Fade Away
Dustin Hoffman – Quartet
Ben Lewin – The Sessions
Joe Wright – Anna Karenina
Best Original Screenplay
Front Runners
Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
The Master – Paul Thomas Anderson
Amour – Michael Haneke
Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal
Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
Probables
The Intouchables – Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano
Flight – John Gatins
Magic Mike – Reid Carolin
Looper – Rian Johnson
Seven Psychopaths – Martin McDonagh
Promised Land – Matt Damon, Dave Eggers, John Krasinski
Long Shots
Smashed – James Ponsoldt, Susan Burke
Arbitrage – Nicholas Jarecki
Take This Waltz – Sarah Polley
I’m starting to think now that if something doesn’t show up in Best Picture, it’ll show up here. So pay attention to “Flight,” pay attention to “Django” for sure, and even pay attention to “Arbitrage.”
Best Adapted Screenplay
Front Runners
Argo – Chris Terrio
Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell
Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeithlin
Lincoln – Tony Kushner, John Logan, Paul Webb
The Sessions – Ben Lewin
Probables
Skyfall – John Logan
Life of Pi – David Magee
On the Road – Jose Rivera
Anna Karenina – Tom Stoppard
Les Miserables – William Nicholson
The Perks of Being a Wallflower – Stephen Chbosky
This is 40 – Judd Apatow
Long Shots
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel – Ol Parker
Hitchcock – John J. McLaughlin
Cloud Atlas – Tom Tykwer, Andy and Lana Wachowski
Team “Skyfall!” Kick out “The Sessions,” please!