Off the Red Carpet: 3 Weeks till Oscars

Sorry this is a bit late, but consider it an opportunity for yet another Oscar blogger to wonder whether “Argo” is actually “Apollo 13” or “Driving Miss Daisy.”

Seriously, there’s been a lot of news lately, but people have run out of things to discuss. The entire season has gone so long without an actual frontrunner that now Oscar bloggers are practically inventing reasons to call one. More on that right now.

“Argo” wins SAG and PGA

Over the past weekend, “Argo” made a surprise sweep by first winning Best Film from the Producers Guild and then Best Ensemble from the Screen Actors Guild. Keep in mind, this is a movie that only a few weeks ago looked weak by losing a nomination for Ben Affleck for Best Director. Now it’s beaten “Lincoln” in two places where it should’ve had the edge, the PGA because it’s the bigger box office success and the SAG because if “Lincoln” is anything, it’s an actors’ movie, and if “Argo” is anything, it’s not that.

So the narrative that has grown out of this is that “Argo” is modeling the trajectory of “Apollo 13,” the last movie to sweep the PGA, SAG and DGA without having a Best Director nominee in tow. Except I don’t think the comparison makes a whole lot of sense. “Apollo 13” didn’t win the Golden Globe (not that that matters), there were only five Best Picture nominees, not nine, “Lincoln” is hardly “Braveheart,” “Braveheart” won in part because it was one of the first movie to send out screeners to Academy members, and “Argo” hasn’t won the DGA yet anyway. That happens this weekend, so we’ll see.

“Argo” isn’t quite “Driving Miss Daisy” either, the last (and one of three films) to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. “Argo” is a studio genre thriller that celebrates the movies, not a stuffy period drama crowd pleaser that plays on white guilt and stars Dan Ackroyd.

Frankly, I think anyone calling this race for anyone is grossly exaggerating. With such a solid crop of movies, each of them with their own powerful narrative that could drive a victory, and many of them being brought up again in conversation by critics and the public, almost any movie has SOME conceivable chance of winning. For my money, this is still a four horse race, maybe five. “Argo” and “Lincoln” are certainly safer horses to bet on, but none of the others have packed up and gone home.

J.J. Abrams to direct “Star Wars: Episode VII”

The Wrap and the Hollywood Reporter confirmed on Thursday that J.J. Abrams, the man behind the upcoming “Star Trek” sequel, “Super 8” and “Lost” will direct “Star Wars: Episode VII.”

Well whoopdy do. I have nothing against Abrams, although I think “Star Trek” is criminally overrated and “Super 8” is criminally underrated, but his appointment strikes me as, “Yeah, that makes sense.” He’ll do a bang up job of it and probably make as good of a “Star Wars” movie as you could hope for at this point, but I guess I’m not sure why I should be excited. (via The Wrap)

Barbra Streisand and Norah Jones to perform at Oscars

The Academy is stepping up their game after cutting music out of the show entirely the last couple of years. Barbra Streisand will perform for the first time at the Oscars in over 30 years, and Norah Jones will make her Oscar debut singing the Oscar nominated song “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from Oscar host Seth Macfarlane’s film “Ted.” Streisand’s part hasn’t been revealed yet, but maybe it has something to do with the movie musical tribute they’re putting together for “Chicago,” “Dreamgirls” and “Les Miserables.” (via Oscars.com)

“Fruitvale” and “Blood Brother” take top prizes at Sundance

Ryan Cooglar’s debut drama “Fruitvale” and Steve Hoover’s documentary “Blood Brother” won both the Grand Jury Prize and Audience Award for a drama and documentary respectively. “Fruitvale” stars Michael B. Jordan (“Friday Night Lights,” “The Wire,” “Chronicle”) and Octavia Spencer (“The Help”) in a true story about a San Francisco man on the last day of his life. None other than The Weinstein Company picked it up, which is always good news come awards season.

Not surprisingly, none of these films initially appeared on my radar when I wrote my list of movies I would go see at Sundance.

Costume Designers get own Academy voting branch

Like the directors, actors, sound people, documentarians and more, costume designers are now getting their own branch within the Academy. No longer are they lumped in with the art designers, and now nominees for costume design will be selected exclusively by a group of their peers. (via In Contention)

Week 2 Predictions

Best Picture

1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Zero Dark Thirty
6. Django Unchained
7. Les Miserables
8. Amour
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild

As I mentioned above, “Argo” is suddenly the horse everyone is hitching their cart too, and they may regret in a few weeks (or even days if the DGA goes differently than expected) how overzealous they were. Thus, I still think “Lincoln” has the best shot on the basis of pure statistics. The press is inflating “Argo” to be stronger than it is when really it hit its peak a month ago.

Best Director

1. Ang Lee – Life of Pi
2. Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
3. Michael Haneke – Amour
4. Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

If the buzz really is headed towards “Argo,” then it’s logical that Spielberg may not be as strong as he seems either, and Ang Lee might be poised to get his second Best Director Oscar just as his excellent film is so close, yet about to be passed over yet again (see: “Sense and Sensibility,” “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” “Brokeback Mountain”).

Best Actor

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
2. Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
3. Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
4. Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
5. Denzel Washington – Flight

Best Actress

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
2. Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
3. Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
4. Quvenzhane Walls – Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
3. Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
4. Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
5. Alan Arkin – Argo

The SAG award this past week gave me my first reason to suspect that Tommy Lee Jones will win his second Oscar for his role in “Lincoln.” If SAG did not honor one of the greats (De Niro) or one of their own “serious actors” (Hoffman), then why would the Oscars?

Best Supporting Actress

1. Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
2. Sally Field – Lincoln
3. Amy Adams – The Master
4. Helen Hunt – The Sessions
5. Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Original Screenplay

1. Django Unchained
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Amour
4. Moonrise Kingdom
5. Flight