Off the Red Carpet: 2 Weeks till Oscars

Hopefully this is the last week that the Oscar race sees a real lull, because ballots are sent to voters this week, so maybe there will be something to talk about then.

“Argo” wins DGA

I wrote in a column just yesterday how ridiculous the discussion over “Argo” is getting, but there’s no denying that the movie looks mighty strong. On Saturday it won the coveted Directors Guild prize, an award that usually predicts the Best Director Oscar winner and consequently Best Picture. Obviously though, Ben Affleck is without a nomination on Oscar night, so I think the uncertainty factor for what will finally happen is more uncertain than most Oscar pundits care to admit. One theory is that the super amount of praise for “Argo” will now turn into backlash as the ballots go out.

But if you’re looking for an even more likely frontrunner, check out “Searching for Sugar Man,” which won the DGA prize for director Malik Bendjelloul.

2013 Oscar luncheon on Monday

On Monday, the Academy had their annual luncheon of all the year’s nominees in which they get to mingle and learn how to keep their speeches short. Jennifer Lawrence, Anne Hathaway and even young Quvenzhane Wallis were all in attendance. (via Oscars.com)

Oscar presenters include Streep, Dujardin and a talking bear

Following in the tradition of the last several Oscar shows, the previous year’s acting winners will introduce the current nominees. So this means that Meryl Streep, Jean Dujardin, Octavia Spencer and Christopher Plummer will all be amongst the presenters, but so will Mark Wahlberg and Seth McFarlane’s CGI character Ted. Wonderful. I thought we could avoid the racist “Beasts of the Southern Wild” jokes, but now I kind of doubt it. (via Oscars.com here and here)

“Wreck-It Ralph” cleans up at Annie Awards

Disney’s “Wreck-It Ralph,” not Pixar’s “Brave,” is looking more and more like the potential Oscar winner. At the Annie Awards last Sunday, the biggest prize for animated films, “Wreck-It Ralph” won five awards for Best Feature, Directing, voice acting, music and writing. Fellow nominees “Brave” and “ParaNorman” each won two. But also pay attention to “Paperman,” the Oscar nominated Disney short that appeared before “Wreck-It Ralph.” It won Best Short Subject at the Annies, and Disney is making a big push for it by airing it online for a few weeks. Because it’s absolutely lovely, here it is.

Week 3 Predictions

Best Picture

1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Zero Dark Thirty
6. Django Unchained
7. Les Miserables
8. Amour
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild

Why am I still on the sinking ship that apparently is “Lincoln” and not jumping on board S.S. “Argo?” Because I think “Lincoln” is still the better film. Based on Oscar nomination statistics alone, it’s a sure thing, and there’s no doubt that it’s huge “Oscar bait,” even if it is better than that derogatory term. “Argo’s” momentum isn’t about to die off or derail, but there’s time for people to think rationally and realize that the winner will be the movie people care about more passionately and not just the “consensus” pick.

Best Director

1. Ang Lee – Life of Pi
2. Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
3. Michael Haneke – Amour
4. Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Assuming Ben Affleck would be the winner had he been nominated, it’s beginning to make sense that “Lincoln” will either win both or it will win nothing. In the case that “Argo” wins Best Picture, Ang Lee is most poised to sweep up Best Director in his place.

Best Actor

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
2. Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
3. Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
4. Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
5. Denzel Washington – Flight

This still remains unanimously in favor of Day-Lewis, even if “Lincoln” starts coming up short everywhere else.

Best Actress

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
2. Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
3. Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
4. Quvenzhane Walls – Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Naomi Watts – The Impossible

I’m reading more and more people leaning towards Emmanuelle Riva, because boy what a story that would tell. But the logic goes that “Silver Linings” probably has to win something, and this would be it if anything.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
3. Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
4. Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
5. Alan Arkin – Argo

I explained last week that the SAG was a big factor in the race and that Tommy Lee Jones is likely the frontrunner. But I forgot that Philip Seymour Hoffman won the Critics’ Choice Award and that Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe. The deciding factor may just be the BAFTA award, in which Robert De Niro isn’t even nominated.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
2. Sally Field – Lincoln
3. Amy Adams – The Master
4. Helen Hunt – The Sessions
5. Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Original Screenplay

1. Amour
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Django Unchained
4. Moonrise Kingdom
5. Flight

Anne Thompson argued that “Django Unchained” has lost virtually all its momentum, and she is just one of many of the Gurus of Gold who finally defected to the “Amour” team. A good part of me still has that inkling suspicion (and hope) that “Moonrise Kingdom” could be a surprise winner.