Off the Red Carpet: 1 Week to the Oscars

We are now less than two weeks away from the Oscars. The guilds are still chiming in, but the last of the major awards has spoken, and as conflicted as I am to say it, I’m finally jumping on the “Argo” train.

Two things convinced me.

The first was the win at the BAFTAs, the British Oscars so to speak. In a place where it arguably doesn’t have the same cultural, zeitgeist leg to stand on, “Argo” held strong against “Les Miserables” and Michael Haneke in the Best Director race.

But more importantly, it took this long for me to realize that “Argo” was always the front-runner. Way back in September at the Telluride Film Festival, “Argo” thrilled audiences in a way that finally declared Oscar season open. It was the first in a long line of contenders in a year that over eight months hadn’t yet proved why it was so great for movies.

And now it’s still here. “Argo” survived where “Lincoln,” “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Les Miserables” all peaked and faded and “Zero Dark Thirty” and “Django Unchained” buckled under their own controversy.

“Argo” is here to stay, and we were stupid to think that it wasn’t always.

Next week in place of this roundup, I’ll have my final Oscar predictions in all 24 categories. It’s been a fun ride writing this column this season. Thanks for sticking with me.

“Argo” wins at the BAFTAs, Riva and Waltz look strong

The BAFTAs were this past Sunday, and they awarded “Argo” best film along with two other awards for Best Director and Best Editing. It’s almost a bit of a shock considering “Les Miserables” was up for both Best Film and Best British Film. But “Skyfall” took best British film and even won an additional award for Best Music.

It’s one more gigantic milestone in “Argo’s” path to the Oscar, but even more interesting in that were the shakeups in some of the other categories.

By upsetting Jennifer Lawrence (and Brit Helen Mirren) for Best Actress, Emmanuelle Riva got a much-needed boost if she wants to be seen as a dark horse.

Christoph Waltz also now has the lead in the Best Supporting Actor wins. De Niro was the one of the five not nominated in this category, but his win along with Quentin Tarantino’s win for the “Django Unchained” screenplay suggest that “Django” has more buzz than I previously assumed.

Even “Silver Linings Playbook” upset Tony Kushner’s “Lincoln” script, suggesting that the real consolation prize for “SLP” might be this one if it fails to win for any of the acting categories.

Oscar ballots mailed out

As of February 8^th, Oscar voting was officially opened when ballots were mailed out to all the Academy members. As with the nominations, this year’s voting is available online for the first time, and all members are now invited to vote in the Documentary, Live Action Short and Animated Short categories without proving that they’ve attended one of the designated screenings. (via AMPAS)

Dame Shirley Bassey to perform “Goldfinger” during Bond tribute

Making her debut Oscar performance, Dame Shirley Bassey will perform the title song “Goldfinger” during the scheduled tribute to James Bond movies. Bassey sang the title songs for “Goldfinger,” “Diamonds are Forever” and “Moonraker,” none of which were nominated for Best Original Song. She joins fellow diva Barbra Streisand in performing live at the Oscars. (via AMPAS)

“Life of Pi” visual effects company filing for bankruptcy

Deadline reported Monday that the visual effects company behind the VFX category front runner “Life of Pi,” Rhythm & Hues, is filing for bankruptcy. The company is still intended to finish some upcoming projects and may be bought out, but as of yet there are no buyers. (via NY Times)

“Between Two Ferns” Oscar edition = best thing ever

The popular web comedy series “Between Two Ferns” on Funny or Die and starring Zach Galifianakis have always been a guilty pleasure of mine, but this time Galifianakis and company have out done themselves with an Oscar edition. Part 1, by far the better of the two, features Jennifer Lawrence, Naomi Watts, a wonderfully droll Christoph Waltz, a drunken “Anne Halfway” “Amys Adam” giving by far the best line reading of anyone ever.

Watch these now if you haven’t already. (via Funny or Die: Part 1 and Part 2)

Also: Check out this nifty gallery of Oscar statuettes re-imagined per winner of Best Picture

Predictions

Best Picture

1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Django Unchained
6. Zero Dark Thirty
7. Amour
8. Les Miserables
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild

It’s finally happened. “Argo” is the one, and the rest can “Ar-Go f**k themselves.” Can I be certain? No, of course not. But the logic stands that Ben Affleck and company have not only put out a wonderful, deserving, zeitgeist film, but they’ve politically engineered a David and Goliath scenario while “Lincoln” has failed to paint itself as anything other than the establishment Oscar movie.

Best Director

1. Ang Lee – Life of Pi
2. Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
3. Michael Haneke – Amour
4. Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Not only is Ang Lee poised to win the Oscar that could’ve belonged to Affleck, Lee is considered the star of “Life of Pi.” There are currently ads being run in which Lee, not the tiger, not Suraj Sharma and not the book, are at the center. More so than Spielberg or even Haneke, Lee is looking like the visionary, the auteur in this category, the one who did something impossible and has the talent to do it again.

Best Actor

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
2. Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
3. Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
4. Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
5. Denzel Washington – Flight

Best Actress

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
2. Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
3. Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
4. Quvenzhane Walls – Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Emmanuelle Riva got just the boost she needed by winning the BAFTA. If I haven’t come around to her yet it’s because I still haven’t seen “Amour,” and yes I’m kicking myself for it.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
2. Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
4. Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
5. Alan Arkin – Argo

I said last week that the deciding factor of this race might be the BAFTA. Well guess who won? Christoph Waltz. Somehow a win for him just doesn’t seem right to me. His performance is not nearly as stellar and memorable as it was for his previous Oscar winning performance in “Inglourious Basterds,” and to me, Leonardo DiCaprio still steals all of Waltz’s thunder. And yet there’s other reasons to suspect that “Django” is very strong, so I’m ever at a loss.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
2. Sally Field – Lincoln
3. Amy Adams – The Master
4. Helen Hunt – The Sessions
5. Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild

A few weeks ago I would’ve been of the mind that “Lincoln” winning this category was one of the handful of the locks across all the categories. Tony Kushner has still won all the major awards, but in this last week alone, “Argo” won the USC Scritpers Award and “Silver Linings Playbook” won the BAFTA. The WGA still has to weigh in if we want to be certain.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Django Unchained
2. Amour
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Moonrise Kingdom
5. Flight

Quentin Tarantino gained another surge of support from the BAFTAs, taking away what theoretically could’ve been an easy win for “Amour.” I’d say “Django” is back on the top of the heap after being knocked down last week.