2013 Oscars: Final Predictions

I just finished watching a Katie Couric special edition of “20/20” in which they talked about everything that makes the Oscars iconic, but none of the reasons why I actually care about the awards. Hearing about Bjork’s swan dress is cute, but I’m in this for the movies.

Every year I come up with elaborate reasons why this year’s winner will mean something. For “The Artist” it was that even a silent, foreign, black and white comedy could win Best Picture and make people interested in a great form of movie history for just a little while. For “The King’s Speech” it was that the love for Old Hollywood was alive and well, even if I was pulling for the generational landmark that would’ve been a victory for “The Social Network.” And for “The Hurt Locker,” it signified a turning point in our view of the campaign in the Middle East, as well as a long denied achievement for women everywhere, which really is something to cheer about.

And yet just as I study every nominee and understand every nuance of the race, all of that is forgotten as quickly as the next year, and the only things that are left are the great movies themselves.

I think this year’s Oscars matter because above all, they will honor a lot of great movies, more than in most years. I may not think “Argo” is the best movie of the year, nor is my pick even nominated, but I think that whatever wins, it will be a victory for quality (except for “Les Miz” obviously).

Here then are my final predictions for what will take home gold on Oscar night. This year has been so exciting, so tumultuous, so long and so controversial that if I have to make one correct prediction, it’s that I will be wrong… possibly a lot.

Best Picture

• Argo
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Life of Pi
• Django Unchained
• Zero Dark Thirty
• Amour
• Les Miserables
• Beasts of the Southern Wild

I don’t think I ever wanted to admit that there was going to be a sure fire winner for Best Picture, and I don’t think I ever could. The “Argo” freight train of success is still relatively fresh news. A lot has happened since it premiered at Telluride back in September, and there was a time just six weeks ago when nominations were announced that it looked to be a dead and gone afterthought. Now it has swept every major guild prize and award in sight, and it is poised to make history no matter what happens. All the comparisons that have been made to explain its victory in the context of past winners will be erased because its victory (or loss) will be completely unprecedented. Pundits will now point to it as the example.

If it wins, it will be because it is a great film, but also because it is an agreeable film that was able to weather the storm of controversy and barrier to entry better than any other.

“Lincoln” hardly seems formidable, and in fact “Life of Pi” or “Silver Linings Playbook” look even stronger with more recent wins in the bag, but it remains an even greater film in my view and is still, on paper, the predictable Oscar winner.

Brian’s Pick: Argo

Dark Horse: Lincoln, followed by Silver Linings Playbook, then Life of Pi

Should Win: Life of Pi

 

Best Director

• Ang Lee – Life of Pi
• Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
• Michael Haneke – Amour
• Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
• David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Ben Affleck has won so many Best Director prizes that it gives Oscar pundits frustratingly less material to go on than they care to admit when picking this category. Although there likely isn’t any evidence to back it up, some people have been making outside cases for David O. Russell or even Michael Haneke to pull off a victory. For O. Russell, it’s because he seems poised to swipe a prize a way from “Lincoln” either here or in the Adapted Screenplay race. Haneke may win a pair of Oscars already on Sunday night even if he does not win here, but he’s such a complex, challenging master that he may not get another trip to this stage if not now.

Yet my money remains on Ang Lee. Lee has his Oscar, yes, and Steven Spielberg hasn’t been honored since “Saving Private Ryan.” But Lee is appearing to many to be the new legend, the new guard of legacy directors who will still be making cinematic treasures years to come. If he wins, it will be proof of his soon to come legacy.

Brian’s Pick: Ang Lee

Dark Horse: Steven Spielberg

Should Win: Ang Lee

 

Best Actor

• Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
• Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
• Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
• Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
• Denzel Washington – Flight

For how fashionable it has been to hate on “Lincoln” lately and presume that it will lose most of its 12 nominations after all, no one has made the case that Daniel Day-Lewis is not one of the few locks this year and destined to be the first actor to three Best Actor Oscars. I’m not about to dispute that case either, because his achievement is monumental. He crafted an iconic performance on an already larger than life figure, and he did so by actually being understated. I don’t think anyone seems to mind anymore that it was ultimately a Brit who portrayed one of the greatest Americans.

Brian’s Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis

Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper

Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress

• Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
• Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
• Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
• Quvenzhane Walls – Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Last week I finally saw “Amour,” and I can safely say that Emmanuelle Riva is brilliant in it. She gives the same distraught, agonizing performance that Naomi Watts does, but she does so with utter authenticity, dignity and even restrain. And although the BAFTA was Riva’s only upset, here’s the pitch I’m making for Riva over Jennifer Lawrence, a decision that I’m struggling with more than almost any other.

Rather than just being an art house film that the Academy appreciates, I sense there is genuine love for “Amour.” Five nominations is a lot, and I predict that “Amour” will ride that wave of love to three wins, including this one for Emmanuelle Riva. Jennifer Lawrence is excellent in “Silver Linings,” and she will get her chance again, but Riva’s chance is a rare one to award something special.

Brian’s Pick: Emmanuelle Riva

Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence

Should Win: Quvenzhane Wallis

Best Supporting Actor

• Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
• Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
• Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
• Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
• Alan Arkin – Argo

Damn this category. Damn it for being filled with such great actors and performances, and damn it for being so impossible to predict. All logic escapes me in this category, because my pick for Tommy Lee Jones denies the fact that many see “Lincoln” as a sinking ship, and he only has the Screen Actors Guild to bolster his chances. Christoph Waltz has both the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, and yet others still claim that Robert De Niro is the true front-runner here. Intuition I guess is pointing me toward Jones. He was somehow my choice from the beginning, and in a field of funny, bold, boisterous and curmudgeonly performances, his seems somehow the most… noble.

Brian’s Pick: Tommy Lee Jones

Dark Horse: Robert De Niro or Christoph Waltz (or who knows, maybe Alan Arkin if Argo goes on a roll)

Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman (again, damn this category for being so awesome)

Best Supporting Actress

• Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
• Sally Field – Lincoln
• Amy Adams – The Master
• Helen Hunt – The Sessions
• Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

There’s a small bit of me that feels hollow toward Anne Hathaway’s eventual victory for “Les Miserables.” She nails “I Dreamed a Dream.” That’s what they all say. But it’s just that song! Is Hathaway winning because of a five minute, unbroken take and an expert ad campaign around an already iconic and infectious song? Is this happening all when I know that Hathaway is a terrific actress who arguably should’ve won for “Rachel Getting Married” and will have another great role again?

Perhaps justice would be better served if Sally Field pulled the upset and earned her third Oscar to join the ranks alongside Meryl Streep as one of our all time great actresses. And yet I don’t think anyone thinks Sally Field is actually Meryl Streep.

Brian’s Pick: Anne Hathaway

Dark Horse: Sally Field

Should Win: Amy Adams (also, poor Helen Hunt. Shame on everyone for completely forgetting about “The Sessions” and her great work in it)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Tony Kushner – Lincoln
• Chris Terrio – Argo
• David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
• David Magee – Life of Pi
• Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Here I am again stuck in this predicament of “’Lincoln’ can’t win anything because there’s no evidence to prove it will.” “Argo” won the WGA and the USC Scripter Award, two gigantic surprises that suggest it has the upper hand, and the way I have things going, I have “Silver Linings Playbook” winning nothing, which sounds completely wrong, and could upset here if nothing else; it did win the BAFTA.

So why Tony Kushner? His narrative is unique. He’s a playwright who adapted a historical biography of one of our Presidents, and he delivered a screenplay that’s a flowing, lovely and eloquent story that makes “Lincoln” the great movie it is.

Chris Terrio has a big narrative too, his script and his career being almost completely buried until Ben Affleck plucked “Argo” from obscurity. Like “The Sessions” and in a way “Zero Dark Thirty,” he too based his movie off a news feature and displayed his own brand of journalistic screenwriting.

Brian’s Pick: Tony Kushner – Lincoln

Dark Horse:  Chris Terrio – Argo, David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Should Win: Tony Kushner – Lincoln

Best Original Screenplay

• Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
• Michael Haneke – Amour
• Mark Boal – Zero Dark Thirty
• Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola – Moonrise Kingdom
• John Gatnis – Flight

“Amour” is not exactly a wordy script. The title for most verbose beyond a doubt goes to “Django Unchained,” and it earns it with style, comedy and substance. “Zero Dark Thirty” too shows brilliant diligence in Mark Boal’s journalistic screenwriting, one that was capable of creating a compelling debate over how movies depict torture no matter what side of the fence you were on.

And yet Haneke did something unique with “Amour” that the Academy doesn’t often pick up on. His screenplay is an ingenious story free of a true sense of time, free of actual incident or turmoil and even free of a concrete setting outside of their small apartment. And yet the movie is purely cinematic, never seeming like a one-act play or something conceptually staged.

“Django” isn’t as neatly fine tuned as Haneke’s script is, and neither is “Zero Dark Thirty” for that matter. “Amour” is going to see a lot of love Sunday night.

Brian’s Pick: Michael Haneke – Amour

Dark Horse: Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

Should Win: Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola – Moonrise Kingdom

Best Animated Feature

• Brave
• Frankenweenie
• ParaNorman
• The Pirates! Band of Misfits
• Wreck-It Ralph

The old adage is that the Pixar movie always ends up winning Best Picture, and in keeping with that logic, I’m handing the prize over to “Wreck-It Ralph.”

Yes, “Wreck-It Ralph,” which also won the Annie Award this year, is the real Pixar movie of the year. It’s a film that surprised audiences late in the year with its clever conceit and good heart without dipping into too many clichés. “Brave” on the other hand felt like the Disney movie, one that was madcap and silly without creating as iconic of a Disney Princess in Merida as say, Vanellope.

Granted, there is always a shot that the real Pixar movie could take the prize. “Brave” too swiped a couple of Annies, and it’s a beautiful movie to look at.

Brian’s Pick: Wreck-It Ralph

Dark Horse: Brave

Should Win: Wreck-It Ralph

Best Foreign Language Film

• Amour
• War Witch
• No
• A Royal Affair
• Kon-Tiki

Yes, I know the Foreign Film branch has been known to absolutely embarrass themselves in past years, and the Academy even denied Michael Haneke an Oscar with his last film/Palme D’Or winner “The White Ribbon,” but that won’t happen this year, right?

Brian’s Pick: Amour

Dark Horse: A Royal Affair

Best Cinematography

• Anna Karenina
• Django Unchained
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Skyfall

Starting with “Avatar” and continuing with “Hugo,” the Academy has developed a trend of awarding the Best Cinematography prize to the film that has taken 3-D in new directions. “Avatar” was polarizing because some argued that it could conceivably be called an animated film. But “Life of Pi” is its own unique achievement. Claudio Miranda’s work is the first to really suggest how 3-D can tell a story that standard cinematography cannot and how 3-D can advance cinema as an art form. With it, “Life of Pi” joins a select rank as one of the few truly beautiful movies ever made.

Miranda seems like a deserving lock, but it’s all the more heartbreaking to see the legendary cinematographer Roger Deakins go empty handed yet again. Now he’s received 10 nominations and has never won, and it’s a shame because “Skyfall” looks plain amazing.

Brian’s Pick: Life of Pi

Could Win: Skyfall

Should Win: Life of Pi (but Deakins! Skyfall! Eh!)

Best Editing

• Argo
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty

“Argo” may be a steamroller, but it doesn’t necessarily have the legs to win in each of its other six categories, except for this one. Part of what makes “Argo” tick is its ability to jump between three virtually unrelated areas, including Hollywood, CIA headquarters and the Iran airport, in perfect action movie fashion. It’s a seamless, exciting approach to classic studio filmmaking, and it puts its editing on display in ways that none of the other nominees do.

If “Argo” loses, fear not, as its nominee William Goldberg is a double nominee for the next most likely winner, “Zero Dark Thirty.”

Brian’s Pick: Argo

Could Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Production Design

• Anna Karenina
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln

Production Design is a tough category to pick this year. It’s a three horse race, and one without a clear front-runner. “Anna Karenina” seems like a confident choice, firstly because the movie is so unbelievably overproduced. It calls attention to its sets at every turn as part of its narrative structure inside a literal and figurative playhouse. It also picked up the Art Directors Guild award for a Period Film over fellow nominees “Lincoln” and “Les Miserables.”

But throwing a wrench into the whole thing is “Life of Pi.” In the last several years, the branch has been leaning toward films that are heavy on digital effects, awarding “Hugo,” “Alice in Wonderland” and “Avatar” over more classically designed films. “Life of Pi” is so primed to take the Visual Effects and Cinematography awards that it’s conceivable that it could take other tech awards as well.

But my money is on “Lincoln.” Amidst all of the other narratives surrounding Spielberg’s film, one of the big ones is its dedication to recreating the look and feel of Lincoln’s time, down to miniscule details like documents and the look and sound of Lincoln’s own pocket watch.

Brian’s Pick: Lincoln

Dark Horse: Life of Pi/Anna Karenina

Should Win: Lincoln

Best Costume Design

• Anna Karenina
• Les Miserables
• Lincoln
• Mirror Mirror
• Snow White and the Huntsman

The cliché about this award is that it always goes to the flowery costume drama with enormous gowns, and “Anna Karenina” has at least that box ticked as the front-runner to win. But it also has an up-and-coming designer with three nominations and no victories, Jacqueline Durran. She faces stiff competition from former winners Eiko Ishioka and Colleen Atwood, both of whom have equally dynamic and boisterous costumes at the center of their movies, “Mirror Mirror” and “Snow White and the Huntsman” respectively.

Brian’s Pick: Anna Karenina

Dark Horse: Mirror Mirror

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Hitchcock
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Les Miserables

The new wrinkle in this category this year is that hairstyles are now part of the criteria, not just makeup. And in addition to the ungainly amounts of eye shadow on Anne Hathaway and Helena Bonham Carter’s faces, they also have garish haircuts that dwarf even those of, well, the dwarves in “The Hobbit.” They even cut Hathaway’s hair on camera. Keep in mind that the Academy does have a penchant for the transformative effect of makeup in the case for “Hitchcock.” (see: “The Iron Lady”)

Brian’s Pick: Les Miserables

Dark Horse: Hitchcock

Best Original Score

• Anna Karenina
• Argo
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Skyfall

Part of what makes John Williams’s score so good for “Lincoln” is that he actually played it close to the chest. The music is fairly subdued, free of the flowing orchestrations and themes you might expect from his work with Spielberg. And yet it’s also the factor that makes him a less likely winner. Rather, the score is a supremely prominent factor in all the empty, ocean scenes of “Life of Pi,” so my money is on the one newcomer in this race, Mychael Danna.

Brian’s Pick: Life of Pi

Dark Horse: Lincoln

Should Win: Jonny Greenwood for “The Master,” (OR “Moonrise Kingdom” OR “Beasts of the Southern Wild OR “Cloud Atlas”) (God! I just rewrote this category!)

Best Original Song

• “Before My Time” – Chasing Ice
• “Suddenly” – Les Miserables
• “Pi’s Lullaby” – Life of Pi
• “Skyfall” – Skyfall
• “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” – Ted

More so than anything they’ve done in a while, the Academy is going to look pretty out of touch with the world if they go as far as nominating Adele for “Skyfall,” getting her to perform live and then not giving her an Oscar.

Brian’s Pick: ADELE

Dark Horse: “Everybody Needs a Best Friend”

Should Win: ADELE

Best Sound Mixing

• Argo
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Skyfall

I’ve been recently convinced that there will be a split in this year’s Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories because there is one prominent front-runner that only appears here, and that’s “Les Miserables.” “Les Miz’s” biggest narrative outside of Anne Hathaway was that all the singing was recorded live (LIVE!). That’s when you know you have a winner: when the biggest story from your movie comes from the Sound Mixing category.

Brian’s Pick: Les Miserables

Dark Horse: Skyfall

Best Sound Editing

• Argo
• Django Unchained
• Life of Pi
• Skyfall
• Zero Dark Thirty

If there is inevitably going to be a split, what then will pick up “Les Miz’s” coattails? There is plenty of evidence to suggest that the branch favors busy action movies as well as Best Picture contenders, so I’m putting my money on the only nominee in this category who does not already have an Oscar (save for one of the “Argo” co-editors), Wylie Stateman for “Django Unchained.” Six nods and no gold, “Django” is excessively noisy at times, such as during the first Candieland fire fight, amongst others, and it could help Stateman finally win. It’s honestly one of my bolder underdog picks of the entire year.

Brian’s Pick: Django Unchained

Dark Horse: Skyfall

Best Visual Effects

• The Avengers
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Life of Pi
• Prometheus
• Snow White and the Huntsman

All five of these movies have impressive digital wizardry at hand, but only one film feels truly innovative in pushing the medium of 3-D and digital artistry forward, and that’s also conveniently a Best Picture nominee. Plus look at that tiger! It’s “Life of Pi,” for sure.

Brian’s Pick: Life of Pi

Dark Horse: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Ugh)

Should Win: Life of Pi

Best Documentary Feature

• 5 Broken Cameras
• The Gatekeepers
• How to Survive a Plague
• The Invisible War
• Searching for Sugar Man

Despite all the great nominees snubbed from this year’s lineup, this is a highly acclaimed group of films after all. And yet none of them seem quite as strong as “Searching for Sugar Man.” The story of folk singer Rodriguez is an audience favorite, a too good to be true story that deserves a great documentary and a great honor to go along with it. It has won so much along the line that it’s hard to imagine it losing now. The only one with much of a shot in my mind is “The Invisible War,” a movie that has already created ripple effects in Congressional hearings. It’s the one movie on this list that can inspire fundamental changes

Brian’s Pick: Searching for Sugar Man

Dark Horse: The Invisible War, The Gatekeepers

Should Win: The Invisible War

Best Documentary, Short Subject

• Inocente
• Kings Point
• Mondays at Racine
• Open Heart
• Redemption

I haven’t seen any of these films, but I hear that they are a strong crop of seriously depressing subjects. The one I’ve heard to be the likely winner is “Inocente,” a movie about a homeless, teenage, undocumented immigrant with a dream of becoming an artist. The other that seems likely is “Mondays at Racine,” a doc about a beauty salon open once a month to female cancer patients.

Brian’s Pick: Inocente

Dark Horse: Mondays at Racine, Redemption

Best Short Film, Animated

• Adam and Dog
• Fresh Guacamole
• Head Over Heels
• Paperman
• The Simpsons: Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare

I guess the truth that 2012 was a great year for movies even extended to these short films, in which Oscar doesn’t always deliver. The likely winner is “Paperman,” this year’s Annie Award winner and the Disney short that premiered before “Wreck-It Ralph.” It’s an adorable, magical and lovely story amongst the best things I’ve seen from Disney in at least the last 10 years.

But I’m also very impartial to “Adam and Dog,” the Annie Award winner from 2011. This short film from a Korean animator from Disney tells the story about the first man and his friendship with the first dog. This too is a lovely story, but one with a dark side as it explores lush natural landscapes.

“Head Over Heels” could surprise too, a student film done through Claymation. The two minute short “Fresh Guacamole” is also surprisingly clever, and of course I love the very funny Maggie Simpson short, but these two have less of a chance.

Brian’s Pick: Paperman

Dark Horse: Adam and Dog, Head Over Heels

Should Win: Paperman or Adam and Dog

Best Short Film, Live Action

• Asad
• Buzkashi Boys
• Curfew
• Death of a Shadow
• Henry

Again, I haven’t seen any of these, but I should point out the rule change in this category, the animated shorts and the documentary features: all of these movies were sent home as screeners to the Oscar voters, meaning that unlike in the past when you were required to attend a screening of all the films in order to vote, now you don’t have to prove that you’ve seen all the nominees. So that spells good news for the audience favorites like “Searching for Sugar Man” and “Paperman,” but it also suggests there will be support for “Curfew,” the buzziest short of the bunch about a man who wakes up in a blood soaked bathtub near death and is asked to babysit his 9-year-old niece.

Brian’s Pick: Curfew

Dark Horse: Buzkashi Boys

So there you have it. My final count is:

Life of Pi: 4

Lincoln: 4 (Seems high)

Amour: 3 (Also seems high)

Les Miserables: 3 (more than one would be too high)

Argo: 2 (would be low for a Best Picture winner, if it gets more than 1)

Django Unchained: 1

Silver Linings Playbook: 0 (Ack!)

Beasts of the Southern Wild: 0 (sad face emoticon)

Zero Dark Thirty: 0 (Dark 30)