Oscar Predictions 2014 – Round 2

A month after my first batch of Oscar predictions, my sentiments about this season are summed up in this paragraph from just one of Mark Harris’s brilliant Oscar posts on Grantland:

In September, I got some ribbing from colleagues for saying it was too early to make predictions. I hope I don’t cause any of them to have an aneurysm by ever so gently saying it again two months later. At the very least, can we stipulate that Variety‘s pronouncement that 2013 offers “more terrific awards possibilities than ever” feels slightly out of sync with the fare at your local multiplex, which is playing Free Birds, Last Vegas, Ender’s Game, and Bad Grandpa?

 Right now I can go out and recommend a half dozen great movies that are playing in places outside New York and L.A.. But the disconnect between “Oscar talk and real-world moviegoers,” as Harris also mentions, is built not just on hyperbole. As Oscar world has hit its lull between the time when “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” come out, pundits have grown tired discussing “12 Years a Slave,” “Gravity” and “Captain Phillips” right as these movies need it most.

Movies like “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “Nebraska” and “All is Lost” are encountering the same problem because everyone who matters saw these movies MONTHS ago at Cannes. I mean honestly, who hasn’t seen “Inside Llewyn Davis” yet? Oh, everyone.

My latest set of predictions doesn’t have much in ways of changes, and that’s more of the reason why it’s easy to become bored of all this. But I was able to see a few more films like “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Blue is the Warmest Color” and “All is Lost” to confirm what the pundits already knew or suspected.

Now in just a few days, the critics will weigh in and nominations from the Indie Spirits and Golden Globes will begin rolling in and dictating the shape of the season all over again. Until then, here’s going with the flow:

* Designates a movie I’ve seen

Bulleted entries are Dark Horse candidates ranked in likelihood of getting in

Best Picture

1. Gravity*
2. 12 Years a Slave*
3. Captain Phillips*
4. Saving Mr. Banks
5. Inside Llewyn Davis*
6. Nebraska*
7. August: Osage County*
8. Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
9. The Wolf of Wall Street
10. American Hustle

• Dallas Buyers Club*
• The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
• Philomena*
• All is Lost*
• Blue Jasmine*
• Before Midnight*
• Her
• Rush*
• Fruitvale Station*

A month ago I worried that “Inside Llewyn Davis” might be ignored by the Academy, a slight Coen entry that would be overlooked by big Oscar bait like “12 Years,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “The Butler” and “August: Osage County.” Now before the critics have even had their say, “Inside Llewyn Davis” is riding a small wave of anticipation as “August” and “The Butler” buckle under the weight of their casts and their reviews. It seems like a lock compared to the question marks that are “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.”

The other strong entry of course is “Nebraska,” which I feared would have the same fate. That film however, also a Cannes entry, has now reminded everyone that it is a genuine crowd pleaser that will scratch just the right itch in this Academy demographic.

Unfortunately for “All is Lost,” “Blue Jasmine,” “Before Midnight” or “Her,” those two movies in my mind take up the “indie” spots that the Academy now reserves. And if any were to bump out “The Butler” or “August” it would be “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Philomena” or a real Academy shocker in “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty,” movies that are more Oscar friendly and could use the help.

New Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

1. Blue Jasmine* – Woody Allen
2. Inside Llewyn Davis* – Joel and Ethan Coen
3. Nebraska* – Bob Nelson
4. American Hustle – David O. Russell, Eric Singer
5. Dallas Buyers Club* – Craig Borten, Melissa Wallack

• Her – Spike Jonze
• Lee Daniels’ The Butler* – Danny Strong
• Enough Said* – Nicole Holofcener
• Frances Ha* – Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig
• Gravity* – Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron
• Fruitvale Station* – Ryan Coogler
• Mud* – Jeff Nichols
• The Spectacular Now* – Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber

Mark Harris again pointed out the impossible conundrum of this and its sister category. How for instance is “Blue Jasmine,” which is essentially an adaptation of “A Streetcar Named Desire,” an original screenplay, when “Before Midnight,” which is only based on characters from a sequel, is not? How are these true stories of “American Hustle,” “Dallas Buyers Club,” “The Butler” and “Fruitvale Station” all original just because they’re not based on an article the way “Philomena” is?

What this does is give us a mess of a race with a lot of contenders in lopsided places. It’s bad news for “Enough Said” and “Frances Ha,” which otherwise might be shoo-ins for a surprise nod. Woody Allen, the Coens and O. Russell are no strangers to being recognized for their screenplays, so they seem like locks.

This would be a first for Spike Jonze however, and “Her” may not be as Oscar friendly or as ingenious as everyone expects. He could quite easily be snubbed by a number of contenders.

It’s also worth mentioning that “Gravity” will really need to score a screenplay nod if it wants to convince the world it deserves to win Best Picture. The dialogue being the one thing people have took shots at, that might be tricky.

New Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

1. 12 Years a Slave* – John Ridley
2. Captain Phillips* – Billy Ray
3. Before Midnight* – Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater
4. Philomena* – Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope
5. Labor Day – Jason Reitman

• August: Osage County* – Tracy Letts
• The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter
• Short Term 12 – Destin Cretton
• Blue is the Warmest Color* – Abdellatif Kechiche, Ghalia Lacroix
• The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – Steve Conrad
• The Book Thief – Michael Petroni

Like I said, this category now seems lopsidedly light in comparison to the many Original Screenplay contenders. “12 Years a Slave” and “Captain Phillips” will compliment their Best Picture nods, but that’s about all that’s certain.

“Before Sunset” got a nomination in 2004, so if the critics revive the film it seems like a good bet. “Philomena” is based on an article, just like last year’s Adapted Screenplay winner “Argo,” and Jason Reitman may continue his good graces with Oscar after missing for “Young Adult.” Something like “August: Osage County” on the other hand may miss out for merely being a very faithful adaptation of Tracy Letts’s play. Play adaptation have a more spotty track record than books, with “Les Miserables,” “War Horse” and “Rabbit Hole” all missing in recent years.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club*
2. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave*
3. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks
4. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
5. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips*

• Daniel Bruhl – Rush*
• Josh Brolin – Labor Day
• Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners*
• John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis*
• Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
• David Oyelowo – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
• James Gandolfini – Enough Said*
• Andrew Dice Clay – Blue Jasmine*
• Matthew McConaughey – Mud*
• Geoffrey Rush – The Book Thief
• James Franco – Spring Breakers*

While most pundits are probably not willing to admit it, this category has more uncertainty than any other in the field. How quickly they forget that last month they were raving that Tom Hanks was a sure-fire nominee in this category. Now “Saving Mr. Banks” has been seen (not by me though; I’ll see it with the rest of the country), and although Emma Thompson confirmed all the early praise, Hanks just does what Hanks does. Some say he could be out altogether!

What that might do for the category is beyond me. While Leto and Fassbender are locks and I only have Cooper in because of O. Russell’s recent acting track record (seven actors nominated over just his last two films), I can see the headlines now that Abdi would be the biggest snub of the whole season.

“Rush” has faded so quickly that if Daniel Bruhl did get in, it might be the only thing “Rush” receives. The same is starting to look that way for “The Butler” and David Oyelowo unless Harvey Weinstein puts his eggs in that basket over the “August: Osage County” one. I had Josh Brolin on my last list, but I had forgotten “Labor Day” was even coming out. Some pundits also want to make a big case for James Gandolfini scoring a posthumous nod. Why he’s considered a “supporting actor” is the first problem, but Julia Louis Dreyfus is the deserving party for my money.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave*
2. June Squibb – Nebraska*
3. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
4. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station*
5. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

• Julia Roberts – August: Osage County*
• Margo Martindale – August: Osage County*
• Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave*
• Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine*
• Amy Adams – Her
• Kristen Wiig – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
• Naomie Harris – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
• Scarlett Johansson – Her
• Lea Seydoux – Blue is the Warmest Color*

“12 Years a Slave” is riding so high right now that Lupita Nyong’o seems even more powerful than Oprah. June Squibb on the other hand, brilliant and sharp-witted as she is, is riding the coattails of Bruce Dern’s acting buzz, and she may find herself landing a few critics’ groups prizes in a surprise turn.

That of course still leaves the rest of the field uncertain. Maybe there’s a double nod for “August,” or maybe Sally Hawkins or Lea Seydoux ride the coming critics wave that I predicted Squibb would receive. Both are powerful female anchors and points of sympathy in their respective women-centric films, yet both have been overshadowed by the sweeping performances of the lead actresses.

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine*
2. Sandra Bullock – Gravity*
3. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County*
4. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
5. Judi Dench – Philomena*

• Kate Winslet – Labor Day
• Amy Adams – American Hustle
• Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue is the Warmest Color*
• Julie Delpy – Before Midnight*
• Berenice Bejo – The Past

The Best Actress race isn’t so much tight as it’s become a veteran’s club. All five nominees would be former winners in this category, which until last year’s Supporting Actor’s race was unprecedented. Now it seems preposterous to not give Cate, Sandra, Meryl, Emma and Judi a nod for doing what they do best.

It would be at the expense of Adele Exarchopoulos and Julie Delpy, each extremely deserving and delivering performances that feel lived-in, fully formed and authentic. Their more grounded roles would help this field of broad character types and big performances currently found in the main contenders.

Best Actor

1. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave*
2. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips*
3. Robert Redford – All is Lost*
4. Bruce Dern – Nebraska*
5. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyer’s Club*

• Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis*
• Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
• Christian Bale – American Hustle
• Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
• Joaquin Phoenix – Her
• Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
• Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station*

Although it will be devastating to not see Oscar Isaac or all these other terrific actors have any real chance at breaking into this stringent field of five, it is safe to say that Ejiofor, Redford, Dern and McConaughey really do all give the best performances of their careers in their respective roles. The narratives can go on endlessly, and all five deserve to be recognized.

I’d still argue however that this category has no clear front-runner. How strong “12 Years” is compared to “Gravity” will say a lot about Ejiofor’s chances. Critics groups will be a big part in shaping this category’s leader, and even they may be split on Isaac or even Joaquin Phoenix.

Best Director

1. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave*
2. Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity*
3. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips*
4. David O. Russell – American Hustle
5. Joel and Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis*

• Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
• Spike Jonze – Her
• Alexander Payne – Nebraska*
• J.C. Chandor – All is Lost*
• John Lee Hancock – Saving Mr. Banks
• Denis Villeneuve – Prisoners*

Way back in 2009 when we first had 10 Best Picture nominees, the five Best Director nominees reflected what would’ve been nominated for Best Picture had there only been five. In the past two years since the rules became a flexible number, that’s changed somewhat. “The Tree of Life,” “Amour” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild” were all wonderful surprises.

This year it seems unlikely there would be a monumental snub like of Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow, and Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron are safely locked in with their films. But Spike Jonze, Alexander Payne and J.C. Chandor may all be those spoilers, especially if their films don’t ultimately make the cut. That could disappoint Coen or Scorsese fans, but it seems plausible.