Late last January I started working a full time job. I drive a half hour to and back from work each day, I get home late, some nights I go out and others I stay in and try and do nothing at all.
That schedule often does not include watching a movie each night. Suffice it to say, keeping pace with my new and old movie watching was a struggle this year, be it staying up late nights or making the long hike downtown to see obscure art films. Being a cinephile can be hard.
Being a music buff however can be easy. Those drives and those slow moments at work amount to a lot of hours, and the ability to access just about any music has never been easier. I DID listen to music every day this year, and as a result the process of writing my year end Top 10 list was as intensive as I know my upcoming film list will be.
The additional beauty about music is that even in a bad year, there is SO MUCH of it to discover. Music doesn’t operate in the bullshit summer and winter release cycles that film does, so there is not only an album worth streaming each and every week but likely one of these same bands coming through town on a cheap, $20 ticket. Throw in a six buck beer and you have yourself an evening.
2013 was thankfully a great year for music. Those who avoided the controversy of Kanye and Miley and Daft Punk and Arcade Fire were still treated to a plethora of debuts, dream reunions and follow-ups that those in the film and TV industries would relish.
No one is writing think pieces declaring music in a golden age, but no one is declaring it dying either (except maybe David Byrne).
So while I’m still not a music writer, I’m no longer a film guy who dabbles in rock. Music is now my other “thing,” and despite how populist, rockist or in poor critical taste my list turns out, I look forward to doing this every year.
2014 Oscar Predictions near the end of the year and just before critics groups weigh in.
A month after my first batch of Oscar predictions, my sentiments about this season are summed up in this paragraph from just one of Mark Harris’s brilliant Oscar posts on Grantland:
In September, I got some ribbing from colleagues for saying it was too early to make predictions. I hope I don’t cause any of them to have an aneurysm by ever so gently saying it again two months later. At the very least, can we stipulate that Variety‘s pronouncementthat 2013 offers “more terrific awards possibilities than ever” feels slightly out of sync with the fare at your local multiplex, which is playing Free Birds, Last Vegas, Ender’s Game, and Bad Grandpa?
Right now I can go out and recommend a half dozen great movies that are playing in places outside New York and L.A.. But the disconnect between “Oscar talk and real-world moviegoers,” as Harris also mentions, is built not just on hyperbole. As Oscar world has hit its lull between the time when “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” come out, pundits have grown tired discussing “12 Years a Slave,” “Gravity” and “Captain Phillips” right as these movies need it most.
Movies like “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “Nebraska” and “All is Lost” are encountering the same problem because everyone who matters saw these movies MONTHS ago at Cannes. I mean honestly, who hasn’t seen “Inside Llewyn Davis” yet? Oh, everyone.
My latest set of predictions doesn’t have much in ways of changes, and that’s more of the reason why it’s easy to become bored of all this. But I was able to see a few more films like “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Blue is the Warmest Color” and “All is Lost” to confirm what the pundits already knew or suspected.
Now in just a few days, the critics will weigh in and nominations from the Indie Spirits and Golden Globes will begin rolling in and dictating the shape of the season all over again. Until then, here’s going with the flow:
* Designates a movie I’ve seen
Bulleted entries are Dark Horse candidates ranked in likelihood of getting in
Best Picture
Inside Llewyn Davis – CBS Films
Gravity*
12 Years a Slave*
Captain Phillips*
Saving Mr. Banks
Inside Llewyn Davis*
Nebraska*
August: Osage County*
Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
The Wolf of Wall Street
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club*
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Philomena*
All is Lost*
Blue Jasmine*
Before Midnight*
Her
Rush*
Fruitvale Station*
A month ago I worried that “Inside Llewyn Davis” might be ignored by the Academy, a slight Coen entry that would be overlooked by big Oscar bait like “12 Years,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “The Butler” and “August: Osage County.” Now before the critics have even had their say, “Inside Llewyn Davis” is riding a small wave of anticipation as “August” and “The Butler” buckle under the weight of their casts and their reviews. It seems like a lock compared to the question marks that are “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.”
The other strong entry of course is “Nebraska,” which I feared would have the same fate. That film however, also a Cannes entry, has now reminded everyone that it is a genuine crowd pleaser that will scratch just the right itch in this Academy demographic.
Unfortunately for “All is Lost,” “Blue Jasmine,” “Before Midnight” or “Her,” those two movies in my mind take up the “indie” spots that the Academy now reserves. And if any were to bump out “The Butler” or “August” it would be “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Philomena” or a real Academy shocker in “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty,” movies that are more Oscar friendly and could use the help.
“12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity” weigh heavily in an Oscar season loaded with buzz and hyperbole.
Last year I got absolutely embroiled in the Oscar race. Such is the case when you have inordinate amounts of time on your hands. I wrote weekly round up columns of all the news and shake-ups in the race, and it was a blast.
This year, contenders have come and gone, with some setting the world on fire (“Gravity”, “12 Years a Slave”), some fizzling out fast (“The Fifth Estate”, “The Counselor”) and others getting pushed to 2014 and out of the race all together (“The Monuments Men”, “Foxcatcher”).
But whereas last year was remarkably unpredictable, this year’s race started early and shows little sign of relenting. The media quickly took over and has aimed to influence the outcome in anyway they can.
Why am I even bothering then to enter my voice into the fray? I chimed in with a controversial piece on why “Gravity” won’t win Best Picture just the other day, and I may yet change my mind, but I was originally going to resume my column and do so as a video.
Now to do so seems futile, and if I’m going to make picks at all, I’d like for them to add something to the conversation. I’d like for them to be pieces that involve me actually having seen the movies in question and not just responding to the media buzz. Hopefully I can call bullshit when need be too.
The smarter pundits out there do no different, and they’ve already been more than critical of the hyperbole that in late October has already made this race exhausting.
I’ll at least make clear now these articles will be less frequent. I can’t promise that they’ll be vastly different than what you might read anywhere else, but they’ll serve as sanity checks in an awards circuit run wild.
* Designates a movie I’ve seen
Bulleted entries are Dark Horse candidates ranked in likelihood of getting in
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave*
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
Josh Brolin – Labor Day
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Daniel Bruhl – Rush*
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips*
Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners*
John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis*
Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
David Oyelowo – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
Andrew Dice Clay – Blue Jasmine*
Matthew McConaughey – Mud*
Geoffrey Rush – The Book Thief
James Franco – Spring Breakers*
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
So the first thing you’re wondering is, why is James Franco so low? After having just revisited “Spring Breakers,” Franco’s reptilian, corn-rowed, drug addled performance is something special. It’s dark and twisted but as much vulnerable and affecting as it is iconic and outrageous. Distributor A24 is taking his campaign somewhat seriously, as they’ve put out two “Consider This Shit” ads. Sadly, honoring a performance like that is simply not how the Academy works.
But to look at the field more practically, Tom Hanks is being argued by some as capable of winning a third Oscar. He seems to also be a lock for Lead Actor, but this is the one where he puts on his classic charm and shows why he’s a real movie star, but a likable one too. Having seen Michael Fassbender’s work in “12 Years a Slave,” it’s monumental. Physical, animalistic, and yet also sickly compassionate and reserved. He won’t be ignored like he was for Steve McQueen’s last film “Shame.” Whether or not the Academy will recognize another villainous turn in this role is another question. Jared Leto has earned a lot of buzz for his cross dressing role in “Dallas Buyers Club,” so he seems likely and could steal a win if the movie is liked enough.
More pundits however are arguing for Daniel Bruhl in “Rush.” To me the performance strikes me as mostly one-dimensional, a calculated job for which Bruhl may very quickly be typecast. Barkhad Abdi seems most likely to be the most worthy snub from a not quite stacked bunch, but a good group of nominees when I think how much I’d love to see Matthew McConaughey, Andrew Dice Clay, John Goodman or Jake Gyllenhaal all break into the mix.
Best Supporting Actress
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station*
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave*
June Squibb – Nebraska*
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County*
Margo Martindale – August: Osage County*
Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave*
Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine*
Amy Adams – Her
Kristen Wiig – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Naomie Harris – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Scarlett Johansson – Her
The supporting actress category is especially strong this year, and it’s amazing to me to see three African American actresses as near locks for this category. Oprah has star power on her side for this nomination, but she’s more than serviceable in “The Butler.” It’s a nuanced performance that never goes overboard. Octavia Spencer may be the only nomination “Fruitvale Station” gets this year. June Squibb is outrageous in “Nebraska,” and she has more than a few show-stopping moments that could win her an Oscar. But my money is on Lupita Nyong’o, a remarkably brave performance among many in “12 Years a Slave,” but she holds her own against titans of cinema.
The reason however I’ve included Jennifer Lawrence in my fifth spot is because I am beyond confused about “August: Osage County’s” role in this race. It was originally rumored that Meryl Streep might be campaigned for Supporting Actress, as the movie is really Julia Roberts’ story. Now where Julia will be campaigned seems uncertain. It might mean bad news for Margo Martindale splitting the vote and coming up short.
Also an interesting footnote is Scarlett Johansson’s bid for “Her.” Keep in mind that Johansson does only voice work for the role, and although it’s a long shot, a nomination would be the first time voice acting alone managed to land an Oscar nod. Also, go Sally Hawkins! Easily the most underrated part of “Blue Jasmine.”
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine*
Sandra Bullock – Gravity*
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County*
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
Judi Dench – Philomena*
Kate Winslet – Labor Day
Amy Adams – American Hustle
Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue is the Warmest Color
Julie Delpy – Before Midnight*
Berenice Bejo – The Past
Perhaps more than any race, Best Actress is especially tight. Months ago this seemed to be Blanchett’s Oscar to lose. Now all five candidates stand to be former winners, with Kate Winslet or Judi Dench acting as the fifth spot contenders, and anyone could give them a run for their money. Blanchett, with the help of Woody Allen and his reputation for championing women to Oscar wins, delivers a convincingly dignified nervous breakdown. Sandra Bullock shows depth and naturalism under the worst of acting conditions. And Streep chews as much scenery as you may have imagined. Streep’s spitfire performance is a thousand times better than her work in “The Iron Lady,” one that has as much pathos and depth as it does firecrackers, so I’m finding it hard to say she couldn’t win a FOURTH Oscar.
If there’s a reason I don’t like Dench in the fifth spot, it’s because Philomena Lee is an awkward character that Dench doing what she does best doesn’t fully earn. Just how big is Amy Adams’s role in “American Hustle” is a looming question mark, but on the outskirts are Exarchopoulos, coming off a big controversy with her director and film, and Delpy, who needs to strike while the iron is hot if she is to convince the Academy that her Celine is a character 18 years in the making.
Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave*
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips*
Robert Redford – All is Lost
Bruce Dern – Nebraska*
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyer’s Club
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis*
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Christian Bale – American Hustle
Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
Joaquin Phoenix – Her
Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station*
Best Actor always seems to be a packed race, so it smacks of hyperbole to say that this year is more or less so than in years past. But what is unique about this year is that given this deep field in which more than a few worthy candidates will be left out, there does not seem to be a notable frontrunner.
Ejiofor will earn his spot because his movie more than anything validates it. It’s a magnificently brave performance with any number of stunning displays of talent to point to as evidence. Hanks, Redford, Dern and McConaughey however have more of the buzz. While McConaughey’s time is due, Hanks, Dern and Redford have all used their performances as something of comebacks, proof to the Academy and the world that they are deserving of the titles of some of America’s great actors.
And yet who is the most vulnerable in such a category when there are so many other possibilities? Hanks could be out if he’s the front-runner for Supporting. Dern may be too modest and simple in Alexander Payne’s lightweight (but brilliant) film. And it may NOT be McConaughey’s time. Maybe it’s Leo’s time, or Joaquin Phoenix’s time, who shows a sentimental side in “Her” the Academy didn’t know he had. Oscar Isaac is as deserving as all these actors, but his deeply lived in, realistic performance is made to feel unlikeable, not in the juicy, good way, and it may hurt him.
Best Director
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave*
Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity*
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips*
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Joel and Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis*
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
Spike Jonze – Her
Alexander Payne – Nebraska*
J.C. Chandor – All is Lost
John Lee Hancock – Saving Mr. Banks
Denis Villeneuve – Prisoners*
Best Director, as evidenced by every year except last one, is a good barometer for the Best Picture front runners and vice versa. So it seems as though McQueen and Cuaron are sure-fire locks. Not only are their films magnificent, there’s no question that their vision is integral to their success.
Greengrass helms the next big frontrunner, and this movie is directly up his alley. “Saving Mr. Banks” is the fourth biggest contender, but John Lee Hancock will not be the face or name people remember after seeing that film.
So that leaves O. Russell to clean up a “third time’s a charm” nomination, and the fifth will be a surprise. Scorsese has been snubbed here before, but Chandor and Villeneuve could be compelling dark horses if their movies don’t make the final Best Picture cut.
Best Picture
Gravity*
12 Years a Slave*
Captain Phillips*
Saving Mr. Banks
American Hustle
August: Osage County*
Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
The Wolf of Wall Street
Inside Llewyn Davis*
10. Rush*
Nebraska*
All is Lost
Blue Jasmine*
Before Midnight*
Her
Dallas Buyers Club
Whew. That’s quite a field. I can speak with certainty to the top three at the very least. In fact, this is a two, if not one horse race as far as many are concerned.
“Saving Mr. Banks” is currently very strong after its very first premiere, so it seems next likely. “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” will have a lot of hype to live up to, and if they fail, then this could be a very different field. Otherwise, they seem to be confident contenders. “August: Osage County” will soon look very strong, and “The Butler” is looking increasingly weak, but each have big casts and Academy friendly ambitions, and it’d be tough to bet against them too.
What’s left are two spots, one I’ve reserved for the “indie” spot and the other for the “populist, sports movie” spot. Unfortunately there’s only one film that meets the latter criteria, and that’s the mediocre “Rush.” In the other category, just about a half dozen things could fill that single void, and currently “All is Lost” looks the strongest. My money will be on “Inside Llewyn Davis” to nab that indie spot, but it will depend on which movies critics and guilds come back for at the end of the year and how some of these movies perform with the public.
A preview of 35 films showing at the 49th Chicago International Film Festival (CIFF) between October 10-24
Toronto, Sundance, New York and now Telluride get all the love.
Those North American festivals have been covered to death in this Oscar season that’s come (and been declared finished) all too early, and the focus moves so fast that the media neglects to appeal to the millions in the Midwest and elsewhere who never get to see those buzzy movies with that tiny fraction of the film loving community.
But I call Chicago home, and so do thousands of other film lovers. Our Chicago International Film Festival is in its 49th year, and although Harvey Weinstein didn’t think to premiere his awards bait movies here, we get a diverse line-up of films and crave guidance, recommendations and coverage just like anyone else.
This year’s lineup, which runs October 10-24, is now available for sale to the general public and can be viewed in full here, seems especially strong, and my lineup is fairly stacked with a handful of near schedule conflicts. So if you’ve got a Festival Pass, here’s a little who’s who of 35 of this year’s CIFF movies.
Here’s hoping Fall 2013 is a lot better than the summer.
This summer movie season was so ho-hum that the films that were so hyped mere months ago will fade into oblivion as soon as September gets going. Yes, gems like “Frances Ha” and “The Spectacular Now” may be revived by critics come Top Ten list time, but as a stacked fall continues to impress, movies like “Blue Jasmine,” “Before Midnight” and “Fruitvale Station” seem less certain to make appearances come Oscar night.
As I’ve done in seasons past, I’ve made clever groupings for the huge batch of films coming our way, and since my excitement ranges from pretty solid to thrilled for most of them, they’re now grouped by “type” instead.
Keep in mind that some of these movies will have tentative release dates, some have not yet picked up a date or distribution in America, some will only get extremely limited Oscar qualifying runs at the end of the year, and some might not end up coming out this year at all.
Destined for Awesomeness
Gravity – October 4
Not all films can be described as jaw-droppingly good looking by a trailer alone, but the fascinating POV, 3-D effects in Alfonso Cuaron’s “Gravity” certainly can. Will the narrative be sustaining enough with just Sandra Bullock floating through space? Early reviews say hell yes.
Captain Phillips – October 11
“Green Zone” was too much Bourne in Iraq, so it’s refreshing to see Paul Greengrass take on another real-event inspired story with a new actor. Tom Hanks could earn an Oscar nod for his hybrid action star turn.
12 Years a Slave – October 18
Last year Leo played the Southern slave owner, and this year Michael Fassbender gets that juicy role. Just about anything would be more Oscar friendly than “Shame,” but Steve McQueen should bring some much needed darkness to this story.
The Wolf of Wall Street – November 15
The trailer that produced the most mesmerizing gif of the year looks no less enticing. Scored to Kanye’s “Black Skinheads,” Scorsese’s Leo-led drama with Matthew McConaughey and Jonah Hill looks to be a mad romp set to cap a year full of “have-more” movies.
Inside Llewyn Davis – December 6
Though considered a more modest Coen Brothers film, Oscar Isaac and “Inside Llewyn Davis” took Cannes by storm with its ‘60s folk rock charm. I hope to see it as the closing night film in the Chicago International Film Festival.
American Hustle – December 13
Oscar pundits are saying third time’s a charm for David O. Russell, who is reuniting his casts from “The Fighter” and “Silver Linings Playbook” (and throwing in Louis C.K. for good measure) for a con artist drama. If you thought the hair styles looked silly in “Argo,” wait till you see this.
Her – December 20
Spike Jonze’s return to feature length films since 2009’s “Where the Wild Things Are” features Joaquin Phoenix in a rare sympathetic and vulnerable role in which he’s falling in love with his Siri-esque computer voiced by Scarlett Johansson. It looks lovely.
The Wind Rises – N/A
New Miyazaki movie? Yes please! This story about a Japanese fighter plane designer during World War II reminds of the early Studio Ghibli film “Grave of the Fireflies” and looks to be Miyazaki’s most adult movie yet. Continue reading “Fall Movie Preview 2013”
There are 30 movies worth talking about being released in Summer 2013. Some are certainly more interesting than others.
I’m going to level with you. If you’re working a day job like I have been for the past three months, seeing 30 movies in one season, let alone a year, seems pretty optimistic.
I on the other hand, am crazy, and there are a number of movies that, ultimately see them or not, I at least want to be able to comment on. I managed to limit that list to 30 movies this year. I don’t know if that says more about me or 2013’s crop of movies if I don’t even have a snide comment to give to “The Smurfs 2,” amongst others.
For my convenience, I’ve ordered them in terms of my excitement level, and not the overall din of noise surrounding each one.
This Is The End – Columbia Pictures
Pretty Stoked
Before Midnight – May 24
“Before Midnight” took Sundance by storm this past January, rocketing it to the top of anyone who knows and cares about movies most-anticipated list for the year, not just the summer. Why? Because Director Richard Linklater has returned to his match made in indie heaven, Jesse and Celine (Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy), for the third time. Maintaining the timeline of nine years after where 2004’s “Before Sunset” left off, and 18 years after 1995’s “Before Sunrise,” Linklater has made another daring experimental gem that may be the only Sundance film to get Oscar attention.
This Is the End – June 14
“This is the End” first caught my attention with their hilarious redband trailer on the presumed Doomsday last December. And in a way, the marketing campaign has now been centered around Mindy Kaling’s strange sexual affinity with Michael Cera. For years though, Seth Rogen and company have made movies that embodied their perceived personas and little else, so why not make a movie that embraces them? It may feel like a full length Funny or Die sketch, it may be too focused on ridiculous action scenes, and it may spawn a wave of comedies in which actors play themselves, but it looks absolutely uproarious. Continue reading “Summer Movie Preview 2013”
I just finished watching a Katie Couric special edition of “20/20” in which they talked about everything that makes the Oscars iconic, but none of the reasons why I actually care about the awards. Hearing about Bjork’s swan dress is cute, but I’m in this for the movies.
Every year I come up with elaborate reasons why this year’s winner will mean something. For “The Artist” it was that even a silent, foreign, black and white comedy could win Best Picture and make people interested in a great form of movie history for just a little while. For “The King’s Speech” it was that the love for Old Hollywood was alive and well, even if I was pulling for the generational landmark that would’ve been a victory for “The Social Network.” And for “The Hurt Locker,” it signified a turning point in our view of the campaign in the Middle East, as well as a long denied achievement for women everywhere, which really is something to cheer about.
And yet just as I study every nominee and understand every nuance of the race, all of that is forgotten as quickly as the next year, and the only things that are left are the great movies themselves.
I think this year’s Oscars matter because above all, they will honor a lot of great movies, more than in most years. I may not think “Argo” is the best movie of the year, nor is my pick even nominated, but I think that whatever wins, it will be a victory for quality (except for “Les Miz” obviously).
Here then are my final predictions for what will take home gold on Oscar night. This year has been so exciting, so tumultuous, so long and so controversial that if I have to make one correct prediction, it’s that I will be wrong… possibly a lot.
Best Picture
Argo
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty
Amour
Les Miserables
Beasts of the Southern Wild
I don’t think I ever wanted to admit that there was going to be a sure fire winner for Best Picture, and I don’t think I ever could. The “Argo” freight train of success is still relatively fresh news. A lot has happened since it premiered at Telluride back in September, and there was a time just six weeks ago when nominations were announced that it looked to be a dead and gone afterthought. Now it has swept every major guild prize and award in sight, and it is poised to make history no matter what happens. All the comparisons that have been made to explain its victory in the context of past winners will be erased because its victory (or loss) will be completely unprecedented. Pundits will now point to it as the example.
If it wins, it will be because it is a great film, but also because it is an agreeable film that was able to weather the storm of controversy and barrier to entry better than any other.
“Lincoln” hardly seems formidable, and in fact “Life of Pi” or “Silver Linings Playbook” look even stronger with more recent wins in the bag, but it remains an even greater film in my view and is still, on paper, the predictable Oscar winner.
Brian’s Pick: Argo
Dark Horse: Lincoln, followed by Silver Linings Playbook, then Life of Pi
What an Oscar race it’s been. I simply don’t know what’s going to happen Thursday morning when nominations are finally announced for the Academy Awards on February 24th. It’s because there have been more great movies, less time to see them and even greater shakeups in the form of controversy, voting problems, new rules and a field that simply refuses to reveal a frontrunner.
In my past On the Red Carpet columns, I’ve made predictions each week, and that list has almost never stayed consistent. These then are my final predictions, when all the buzz that’s come and gone doesn’t matter except for right now.
I’d like to think I’ve studied the tea leaves enough that I don’t have to take a shot in the dark, yet I may be as wrong about these nominees as I’ve ever been. And the way this race has been shaking up, I’ll be perfectly all right with that.
Best Picture
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdrom
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Skyfall
Dark Horse: The Master, Amour
If you’re gonna toy with us with the number of nominees, can’t there just be 12? The rules from last year stands in which there will be anywhere from five to 10 nominees, and to be eligible for a nomination, a film must get at least one first place vote.
All of these titles have their passionate supporters, and most are both box office successes and universally admired. With that logic, at least six of these are fairly certain nominees, those being “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Lincoln,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Argo,” “Les Miserables” and “Life of Pi.”
“Django Unchained” is next on the list. At first, pundits were quick to call it dead when the movie simply had not been seen, and I was the confident one. Now that’s reversed because the movie is very loved, but I’m not fully on board. The Academy does love Tarantino however, and as a movie that’s a fun, accessible studio picture and a stylish cinephile movie, it’ll find a lot of love.
Then there’s the question of the “indie spot.” Ever since the expanded Best Picture field, there’s always been room for some Sundance or Fox Searchlight darling, maybe two spaces. So will “Moonrise Kingdom” or “Beasts of the Southern Wild” get in? Will neither? My vote is a daring plea for both. Neither has gotten the critic or guild love it has really needed. SAG snubbed both, but both found room with the Producers Guild, American Film Institute and National Board of Review. Even the Golden Globes had some love for “Moonrise.” What’s more, the narrative behind “Moonrise” is that this is Wes Anderson’s best film, the film in which he grew up without sacrificing his childlike instincts. As for “Beasts,” here’s a film that has gone the distance since Sundance, and Benh Zeitlin and Quvenzhane Wallis have earned Breakthrough awards left and right.
That makes for one last spot, if we really do have 10. Logic serves that if last year could find nine nominees, surely this year can do one better. But what gets it? “The Master” was that early contender, the divisive yet awe-inspiring movie that shared the same narrative as “The Tree of Life.” “Amour” is for the older generation of Academy voters, the love story that haunts and enchants, and one that celebrates two legendary actors of old. “Skyfall” too has a powerful narrative. Not only is it a box office smash, it might just be the best Bond yet. A recent PGA nod and plenty of acting buzz has been important, despite missing all the other guilds. It’s picked up steam where a month ago it would’ve been a wish.
As of very recently, I have the inkling suspicion that the last Best Picture slot will go to “Skyfall.” It will fall in the mainstream action movie slot that in past years belonged to “District 9,” “Inception” and would’ve belonged to “The Dark Knight” in 2008. And what sets it apart is that it’s not just “another Bond movie.” Sam Mendes has given the film institutional clout that every film before it has lacked, and “Skyfall” takes Bond’s story seriously in a way never before attempted. “The Master” did not have the cultural impact “The Tree of Life” did, and in three years of an expanded Best Picture field, we still have not had a legitimate foreign film be nominated (“The Artist” doesn’t count because it’s silent), so why should “Amour” change that?
For 50 years, a Bond movie has not been nominated for Best Picture, probably for good reason, but there is no better time than now for the Academy to mend that injustice to the most durable movie institution of all time.
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington – Flight
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Dark Horse: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master, Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Performances that have been collectively nominated by the Screen Actors Guild, the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards have never failed to get an Oscar nomination. Daniel Day-Lewis, John Hawkes, Bradley Cooper, Denzel Washington and Hugh Jackman have all managed to receive all three.
So where does that leave Joaquin Phoenix? It leaves him out, officially rejected by the institution he bashed earlier this year. His performance is undeniably brilliant, but his surly attitude in this sadly political game will likely cost him the nomination he deserves.
Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Dark Horse: Naomi Watts – The Impossible, Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea, Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain are probably the only two contenders in this category who are a sure thing. “Rust and Bone” and Marion Cotillard have been losing steam. Quvenzhane Wallis has earned every Breakthrough Actress performer in sight, but little else. Naomi Watts has the weight of a nod from SAG, the Globes and the Critics’ Choice, but I attest that she is not the center of “The Impossible.”
That leaves Emmanuelle Riva and Helen Mirren. These are both seasoned veterans, but this is not Mirren’s best work. Riva picked up the coveted LA Film Critics’ prize, the National Film Critics Association award, a second runner up spot with the New York critics and still nabbed a Critics’s Choice nod. And the Academy knows she will not get this chance again.
The only other dark horse is Rachel Weisz. How many Academy voters have actually seen “The Deep Blue Sea?” It’s hard to say, and the NYFCC acclaim feels like ages ago now. Her Golden Globe nomination is the only thing keeping her kicking.
Best Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Javier Bardem – Skyfall
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained, Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
If I am in the camp that “Skyfall” will receive a nomination, then surely Javier Bardem will get one too. He is electric in the role, and the film would not be the same without him. By earning a SAG nomination, he got the boost that the critics would not give him and instead lauded on Matthew McConaughey and Leonardo DiCaprio.
But both Leo and McConaughey are already facing an uphill battle. The vote for “Django” may well be split between former winner Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson. The same can be said about McConaughey, who is likely vying for “Magic Mike,” but then the NYFCC also recognized him for “Bernie.”
This is still a vast field with a lot of contenders, but you can feel very certain about the remaining four.
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Amy Adams – The Master
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Dark Horse: Ann Dowd – Compliance, Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy, Samantha Barks – Les Miserables, Judi Dench – Skyfall
Did I ever say this was a weak field? I don’t know how I could’ve said that if I have literally four dark horse contenders. Sally Field and Anne Hathaway are locks, and Helen Hunt certainly deserves it. If “The Master” is weak, there’s a possibility that so is Amy Adams, but I’m having a hard enough time filling that fifth slot.
Ann Dowd would be the first surprise nominee in a little seen film, as she was nominated by the Critics’ Choice, the Indie Spirits and the NBR. Nicole Kidman would be the other, picking up a SAG and Globe nod, despite her film being almost universally reviled. Samantha Barks is probably as deserving for her minimal screen time in “Les Miz” as Anne Hathaway is, but the vote is bound to be split. Judi Dench has a very important role in “Skyfall,” but I’m not sure the work is as gripping as Bardem’s.
That leaves Maggie Smith, who is adored by the Academy. She has two Oscars and is on a new streak of greatness in “Downton Abbey.” There’s also a small camp of people who want to throw “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” a bone. She’s my fifth.
From left to right, Bradley Cooper, David O’Russell and Jennifer Lawrence. Image courtesy of NY Daily News
Directing
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck – Argo
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Dark Horse: Tom Hooper – Les Miserables, Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master, Michael Haneke – Amour
Save for predicting what the Best Picture nominees would be if there were only five, directors have more of a narrative behind them and their films than anyone else. This year’s crop is ripe with stories.
Spielberg is in for sure. He’s the legendary American director taking on an American legend even greater than he is. Affleck is also in for sure. People feel “The Town” and “Gone Baby Gone” have been underrated, and with “Argo,” Ben Affleck has now been cemented as a serious American filmmaker for a new generation. Not only that, as a director he’s mounted his “comeback” to the A-list. And Bigelow is surely in. Winning Best Director before was previously seen as an accolade long overdue. Now Kathryn Bigelow is a Hollywood woman with a lot of power, and it’s scaring some people.
If logic serves, “Silver Linings and Les Miz” would round out the top five, but my money is on Ang Lee to steal Tom Hooper’s spot, not O. Russell’s. Lee was working on the visionary 3-D landscape in “Life of Pi” long before people had any clue what “Avatar” was. In doing so, he took an “unfilmable” novel on the silver screen, arguably advancing what cinema is capable of. “Les Miz” is well liked, but did Hooper go above and beyond the Broadway musical? The Directors’ Guild just spoke today by snubbing O. Russell and including Hooper, but O. Russell is a big part of that film’s style and dry humor. And you know what? “Silver Linings” is just the better film.
The last two dark horses I have listed are Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Haneke. No one would question that the two are the auteurs behind their respected films, and nominating one of them would be the conciliatory way of overlooking either “The Master” or “Amour” for Best Picture. Terrence Malick got a nomination last year after all.
Best Original Screenplay
Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Amour – Michael Haneke
Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal
Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
The Master – Paul Thomas Anderson
Dark Horse: Looper – Rian Johnson, The Intouchables – Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano, Flight – John Gatins, Seven Psychopaths – Martin McDonagh
The screenplay categories are where the Academy can cover their bases in case something gets snubbed or in case they want to honor something that really doesn’t have a chance elsewhere.
That’s why “Looper” is a very powerful dark horse. It would be Rian Johnson’s first Oscar nomination, but he’s got some stiff competition from PTA, who the Academy may not respect as a director, but certainly do as a writer. “The Master” would be his fourth screenplay nomination.
The same can also be said for “The Intouchables,” “Flight” and “Seven Psychopaths,” which is specifically about the writing process.
Confusing the whole issue is the Writers’ Guild. If “Amour” and “Django” were eligible for that prize, they’d far and away be seen as strong contenders and not underdogs.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo – Chris Terrio
Lincoln – Tony Kushner, John Logan, Paul Webb
Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell
Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeithlin
The Perks of Being a Wallflower – Stephen Chbosky
Dark Horse: Les Miserables – William Nicholson, The Sessions – Ben Lewin, Life of Pi – David Magee
I said in my previous column that “Life of Pi” is not remembered for it’s dialogue, and it’s that very reason why I think it’ll be overlooked in place of the slightly more poetic “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” a film that captures the beauty of the world and the rugged dialect of the bayou.
My fifth pick then is “The Perks of Being a Wallflower.” Remember when “Precious” won because it had “based on the novel by Sapphire” in the title? Well what do you think The Academy thinks about an author adapting and directing his own cult novel? “Perks” has performed very well with the critics groups and even got a WGA nod. It’s got a much better shot than something like “Les Miz,” a story pretty faithfully adapted from a play. Such devotion prevented the nominations of “Rabbit Hole” and “Carnage” in previous years.
Additional Categories
Below the jump I look at the technical categories in the race, which I’m not fully equipped to predict, but play ball with me here. Maybe I’ll have a good prediction streak.
If all serves from these tech categories, here’s my overall count for Oscar nominations per film.
Every year there are great performers and films that for whatever reason do not get the attention they deserve at the Oscars. Sometimes they’re underrated, sometimes they’re critical darlings and sometimes the field is just too vast.
I guess I should be proud that when I did this feature last year, none of the movies or performers I named got nominated. Is that a good thing? Anyway, here again I’ve picked some names that have nary a prayer when the Oscar nominations are announced next Thursday. If it feels like I’m missing a really good one, assume they actually have a shot.
Best Picture
Looper
The Kid With a Bike
The Turin Horse
Bernie
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Rust and Bone
The Impossible
I’ll maybe wish I included my four of my Top 10 movies of the year on this list when they don’t get nominated. Those are “The Master,” “Skyfall,” “Moonrise Kingdom” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild.”
But the movies I have selected are all just as wonderful and not Oscar bait at all. “Looper” is exactly what clever studio filmmaking should be. “The Kid With a Bike” is such a heartbreaking and darling film about a kid who loves too strong the things that don’t love him back, and it’s only being forgotten because it premiered two Cannes film festivals ago. “The Turin Horse” is so gigantic, epic and hard to watch, it may just be considered one of the best movies ever made years from now. “Rust and Bone” is a daring romance that the Academy simply hasn’t seen. “Bernie” treads the line between comedy, drama and documentary a little too closely for the Academy to care. “Perks” is destined to be a teen classic alongside “The Breakfast Club.” And “The Impossible” should have Oscar bait written all over it, but Academy voters have already booted it out of contention in fields such as Visual Effects and Makeup.
There’s no questioning that the movies that are being nominated for Best Picture are quality films, but some of my picks might hold up in the culture’s eye just a little better over time.
But I’m not, and what makes it all the worse is I know someone who is. He had asked me to make some recommendations for him on what he should get tickets for. Cause I’m the movie guy and all.
So not being able to do anything halfway, I did a lot arguably unnecessary reconnaissance. And I really wish I was going to Sundance this year. The line-up of both in competition films and those just making their world premieres is impressive.
Aside from being in one of the best places for skiing on the planet, Sundance has that rare quality of discovery that other film festivals don’t anymore. Cannes has always featured a smaller line-up, usually foreign masters trotting out their latest art house experiment, and Toronto has become a stomping ground for awards bait movies to make their premieres.
But as I told my friend, Sundance is unique in that, you can do all the research about directors and stars that you want, but the next great film of the year, the “Beasts of the Southern Wild” or “Winter’s Bone” or what have you, will be full of unknowns and come as a complete surprise. It’s a place to discover the films that will never get a distributor, not the mid-range indie product that’ll be released just months from now. Here then is just part of the message I sent to my friend:
“So with that in mind, take some chances on some films. There will be scheduling conflicts, there will be movies that will be sold out, and of the 10 that you choose to go to (or whatever your number ends up being), there will likely be some bad ones in the bunch. The ones that might be most worth your time are the smaller films without big casts or directors that might never get distribution. Some of these are in competition and a lot are just premiering. Look into some foreign films or maybe even a short film program.”
I really did go all out in making suggestions, going as far as to provide a list of miniature blurbs and ranking my top choices, so at that point I decided I may as well turn this into an article and offer these suggestions to anyone else who may be going.
“Kill Your Darlings”
Before Midnight – In 1995, Richard Linklater did a movie with Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy in which the two of them just walked around and talked and fell in love, “Before Sunrise.” 9 years later he revisited it with “Before Sunset,” and it was equally experimental and moving. This is the third time he’s revisited them, and it’s bound to be a big hit.
Sound City – This is Dave Grohl’s new documentary about a legendary recording studio that closed recently. I would go because he’s definitely going to be there, but the movie itself will be available for download in February, so it’s not like you’ll never see it if you really wanted to.
Muscle Shoals – Here’s another intriguing music doc. This one is about Rick Hall, Aretha Franklin, Wilson Pickett and the music that arose out of the Alabama scene in the ’60s. The first time director Greg Camilier has assembled a flock of great musicians to say wonderful things about Hall and FAME Studios, including Mick Jagger, Etta James, Bono and more.
Kill Your Darlings – “Kill Your Darlings” is the story of what drew the beat poets William Burroughs and Jack Kerouac together, starring Daniel Radcliffe as Allen Ginsberg. It has a first time director but has an amazing cast that also includes Michael C. Hall, Elizabeth Olsen, Jack Huston, David Cross, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Kyra Sedjwick and Ben Foster.
Touchy Feely – If you’re looking for a really depressing, mind-bending movie, this is probably it. It’s from Lynn Shelton, the director of “We Need to Talk About Kevin,” and it’s about a massage therapist who suddenly is afraid to touch people, starring Ellen Page, Rosemarie Dewitt and Allison Janney.
Mud – This one was actually slated for 2012, so it’s not a world premiere. But it stars Matthew McConaughey as a fugitive on the run from bounty hunters in this Americana character drama and thriller. It’s directed by one of my favorite up and coming directors, Jeff Nichols. He did “Shotgun Stories” and “Take Shelter,” which were also drenched in Americana.
The Spectacular Now – This tells the story of a teenager who is a budding alcoholic, and it has a coming of age story vibe about a kid who gets in an argument with his nerdy friend, gets drunk and ends up meeting the “cool kids” when he wakes up. The director, James Ponsoldt, is supposedly providing it with the same tone as his film “Smashed” released in 2012, also about an alcoholic and starring Mary Elizabeth Winstead.
The Way, Way Back – A dramedy from the writers of “The Descendants,” it’s about a 14-year-old visiting his mom and her annoying boyfriend on summer vacation. It stars Steve Carell, Sam Rockwell, Toni Collette and Maya Rudolph.
Magic Magic – This is a kind of surreal drama starring Michael Cera and Juno Temple. It’s about a girl who dabbles in hypnosis and suffers from insomnia.
Ain’t Them Bodies Saints – This is a first time film starring Casey Affleck and Rooney Mara in a runaway love story that’s got a big “Bonnie and Clyde” or “Badlands” vibe.
The East – Brit Marling is a younger actress/screenwriter who really impressed me with the smart sci-fi “Another Earth,” and this film is a larger scale thriller about a secret agent who goes undercover to stop a group of activists attacking CEOs, but she eventually begins to like some of their ideas.
A.C.O.D. – A comedy starring both Adam Scott and Amy Poehler; what’s not to love?
Don Jon’s Addiction – The directorial debut of Joseph Gordon Levitt, this is a comedy about a guy addicted to porn but who can also land 10’s any night of the week. Stars JGL and Scarlett Johannson.
Stoker – A thriller/horror movie from the director behind “Oldboy,” Stoker stars Mia Wasikowska fearing the motives and potential of her increasingly unstable mother (Nicole Kidman) and her mysterious Uncle Charlie (Matthew Goode).
Lovelace – Amanda Seyfried stars as Linda Lovelace, the porn star from the 70’s movie “Deep Throat.”
The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete – This a coming of age drama about inner city kids living on the street, and it’s got a bunch of big stars in bit parts like Jennifer Hudson, Anthony Mackie and Jordin Sparks. It has something of a “Precious” vibe, and it’s from a debut filmmaker, George Tillman Jr.
The Gatekeepers – Another documentary that’s actually on this year’s Oscar shortlist, it’s about Israeli military leaders and is supposed to be really insightful into understanding the Middle East.
No – A Chilean film and on this year’s Oscar shortlist for Best Foreign Language Film.
Sweetgrass – A Western starring Ed Harris and January Jones.
Breathe In – A drama from the director of the 2011 Sundance winner “Like Crazy,” it’s about a family and the tension that spawns after they take in a foreign exchange student.
May in the Summer – Director of “Amreeka,” which won a prize at Cannes a few years back.
In a World… – A comedy from Adult Swim’s and “Children’s Hospital’s” Lake Bell about a struggling vocal coach. It also stars Demetri Martin and Rob Corddry.
Toy’s House – Three teenage boys go off to the woods to build a house of their own. Stars Nick Offerman, Alison Brie, Mary Lynn Rajskub and Megan Mullaly.
Austenland – For any “Napoleon Dynamite” fans, “Austenland” is a comedy about a girl (Keri Russell) obsessed with “Pride and Prejudice” and visits a Jane Austen theme park to find true love. It comes from Jerusha Hess, cowriter of “Napoleon” and sister of brother Jared Hess.
jOBS – This is the closing night film of the festival, and maybe it’s terrific. But it’s the biopic about Steve Jobs starring Ashton Kutcher, a casting that always rubbed me the wrong way. It’s from the director of “Swing Vote,” and it was just picked up by Open Road Films for a April release date.
Top of the Water – The wonderful director Jane Campion’s new film is about a private detective investigating disturbances in a small New Zealand town, and it’s her first film at Sundance in over a decade. It’s probably lush and beautiful, but the only problem is, it’s six hours long. Yikes.
