Tag: 12 Years a Slave

2014 Oscar Winner Predictions

“12 Years a Slave” will win Best Picture, along with three other Oscars.

The Oscars are here, although maybe not soon enough. A report recently said that two thirds of Americans have not seen any of the Best Picture winners yet. That to me doesn’t add up for a movie like “Gravity” that made as much money as it did, but the point is that this awards season, while interesting, has just gone on too long. A New York Times article wondered if the average individual is generally apathetic to the whole institution of the Oscars.

I hope that isn’t true, but it’s starting to feel that way when the debate over “12 Years a Slave” versus “American Hustle” has long since past, when we’ve heard the story about Jonah Hill getting paid as little as SAG would allow to work for Martin Scorsese over and over again, and when even “Let it Go” parodies are getting old.

Anyway, here are my final predictions. You may find there’s more consensus and predictability than you’d think.

12 Years a Slave

Best Picture

Months ago I wrote an article bluntly titled “Gravity Will NOT Win Best Picture… Probably.” It was smart of me to add on that last word, because the good news is that “Gravity,” my favorite film of the year, is still here. It is still as much of a favorite to win now as it was back when it premiered at Toronto, despite all the things I said about it technically having come true.

But in the case of “Gravity,” the nitpickers have beaten the dollars, and a more “worthy” title, one that isn’t seen as just “a ride” or a movie with a “bad script” will have to take its place. That film will be “12 Years a Slave,” as many predicted long ago that it was invincible. It has now survived with wins at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes as the one to beat, and yet its tie in the Producers Guild Awards with “Gravity” confirms just how close this race is.

“American Hustle” may not be the last minute favorite after all, and it’s a shame for David O. Russell, who would now be 0-3 in a row on his current hot streak. The third time is not the charm, it seems, but I’m betting he’ll strike again, whereas Alfonso Cuaron and Steve McQueen may never make another Oscar friendly movie. The reason I feel it can’t win, and why some are predicting it might not win anything, is, what exactly is the narrative behind this movie winning? It’s a throwback, but not quite. It’s a crowd pleaser, but not entirely. It’s madcap fun, brilliant and original, but some would argue even that’s not all true.

“Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” each have their supporters who would say otherwise about all of the above, and a win for them will mean something special.

2014 Oscars Final Predictions

Who all will be nominated for the 2014 Oscars on January 16.

The day has come. Everyone’s had their say, and the Oscar nominations are only days away. In one corner we have strong consensus on some absolute great movies, movies that could sit on any year’s Best Picture list and be stronger contenders than they are here. And in the other corner you have controversy, bitching, stewing and whining that maybe just about all of these are overrated to some degree. I mean, we knew “Spring Breakers” wasn’t about to be nominated, but does the Academy really think there are 10 better movies this year than “Before Midnight”?

It’s easy to get exhausted by all the bickering, but then that’s criticism, and that’s the Oscar race. It isn’t every year that we get three, maybe four plausible winners in such a vast field.

I tend to enjoy Oscar nomination morning even more so than Oscar night itself. There are more chances for surprise, for curveballs, snubs and the opportunity to pick the winner. Maybe not everyone is aware that Cate Blanchett’s Oscar win this year will be a foregone conclusion (watch me eat those words), but there’s a lot less certainty when it’s so close to being over.

This year my predictions have gone back and forth, but not as much as you might think. Movies like “Rush,” “August: Osage County” and “Fruitvale Station” have been pushed to the margins as the months have passed, and “Her” and “American Hustle” have emerged as more than gems. But this crop of films that we started with back in October has stayed mostly constant because all of them have been as good, if not better than expected. No amount of prognosticating, statistics and snubs can take all that away.

Best Picture

  1. 12 Years a Slave
  2. Gravity
  3. American Hustle
  4. Her
  5. Captain Phillips
  6. Saving Mr. Banks
  7. The Wolf of Wall Street
  8. Nebraska
  9. Inside Llewyn Davis

This remains a race between “12 Years a Slave,” “Gravity,” “American Hustle” and to a lesser degree “Her,” and it’s most exciting to know that not one is the runaway favorite. “12 Years” may be in the lead, but “American Hustle” pulled the hat trick of being recognized by all three guilds, the DGA, PGA and WGA.

“Captain Phillips” and “Saving Mr. Banks” seem like safe fifth and sixth bets, both studio films but one with an edgy action pulse and the other a family friendly affair full of Old Hollywood nostalgia.

A bigger question mark however hangs over “The Wolf of Wall Street,” the most controversial of all the contenders, and “Inside Llewyn Davis,” which has been hit or miss. Opposite “American Hustle,” it pulled the hat trick of being snubbed by all three guilds, and yet it swept the National Society of Film Critics’ Awards.

The reason I feel both are getting in is the little movie no one is talking about, “Nebraska.” This movie has quietly remained in the hunt despite only mild notices for its actors. Alexander Payne missed with the DGA, and no critics have really come to bat for it. But is there a fear that it can’t scrape together a measly 300 1st place votes? Both “Inside Llewyn Davis” and “Wolf” have that kind of love, despite the hate, and this will be a nine horse race for the third year running. Continue reading “2014 Oscars Final Predictions”

2013: The Year the Movies Weren’t Cool

The movies are no longer the pinnacle of pop culture. How do we make them matter again?

When “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” came out in November, it accomplished something no other movie in 2013 has: it made an impact.

Prior to its release, I saw genuine excitement in my friends and in my social media feeds. Jennifer Lawrence began appearing on just about every late night talk show and proceeded to be generally awesome and meme worthy.

When it finally did come out, lo and behold, it was really good – better than the original by far and fully matching the hype. It even made more money than the original and set records for the November box office. Critics discussed it like it was important, and people talked about and saw it multiple times like it mattered. And it does matter.

Each year a few moments in popular culture seem to define the entire year. They set the world on fire for moments at a time and anyone who’s anyone knows about it and is talking about it.

Pinning down just how they define the year is a bit more intangible, and it’s up to the media to write year-end lists, columns and mashups that weave our culture together when box office receipts and viewership numbers don’t paint the whole picture.

2013 has been an exciting year, as are most years when we look back each December. This year gave us the finale to “Breaking Bad,” one that garnered as many parodies as it did live viewers. It gave us the hilarious and even groundbreaking antics of Kanye West and Miley Cyrus. “Homeland,” “The Walking Dead” and “Dexter” made waves with polarizing new seasons. Arcade Fire and Daft Punk turned heads with critically acclaimed smash hits and tour and marketing choices that were talked about as much as the music. “Grand Theft Auto V” and “Call of Duty: Ghosts” were blockbuster video games that made “Thor” look like an independent film. Jimmy Kimmel pranked the Internet. We learned what the Fox says.

And a few movies came out too.

In terms of quality alone, 2013 turned out to be a pretty great year for movies. You can read my Top 15 list here. Many were moving, original and game changers, and some felt like they could be all time classics.

And for the most part, these movies made money, they got good reviews, and they’ll be here to stay through Oscar season and beyond. People continue to see them, buy them, stream them, steal them, whatever.

But increasingly, they matter less.

No longer is film the pinnacle of pop culture. TV offers more opportunities for experimentation and narrative complexity, music continues to pose discussions about race, femininity and more beyond the music itself, video games demonstrate the greatest chance for growth as a blossoming art form, and all three continue to be infinitely accessible and open to critical discourse.

Film on the other hand can seem to be more selective, more homogenized and harder to access. Filmmakers like Steven Soderbergh and others are jumping ship to TV, the mass marketed movies are losing their zest, the important and groundbreaking films are not available nationwide or in the Netflix canon, and film’s innovations to the medium, namely digital and 3D cinematography, look gimmicky and defensive at worst.

No one is dismissing the work of great artists because there is other entertainment to be found elsewhere, but when everything is to some degree competing for attention, the ability to discuss films and share them widely is waning.

Movies aren’t worse; they just aren’t cool. Continue reading “2013: The Year the Movies Weren’t Cool”

The Best Movies of 2013

Championing a year in cinema and the stories only it can tell

The major theme across the intros to most of this year’s Best Film lists has been that the movies matter. Critics have championed the movies that could only be movies, ones that feel cinematic not because they’re big but because they can be small, because they can avoid “complex narrative” as championed by TV and use imagery and style above all to convey a different sort of complexity.

Here’s Richard Brody on the cinematic squabble:

“The ever-increasing prominence of television is, in turn, sparking a renewed reflection on the part of filmmakers about what cinema is, and what it can be. The conflict between the dependent image and the essential image, between the transparent and the conspicuous, is real and serious…The best movies this year are films of combative cinema, audacious inventions in vision. The specificity and originality of their moment-to-moment creation of images offers new ways for viewers to confront the notion of what “narrative” might be.”

And A.O. Scott:

“It is easy to conclude that movies have surrendered that long-held vanguard position. The creative flowering of television has exposed the complacency and conservatism that rules big-money filmmaking at the studio level… But within this landscape of bloat and desolation, there is quite a lot worth caring about. More important, there are filmmakers determined to refine and reinvigorate the medium, to recapture its newness and uniqueness and to figure out, in a post-film, platform-agnostic, digital-everything era, what the art of cinema might be.”

They seem to say in blunter terms, “Yeah, TV’s good, but fuck that.”

This is cinema. You can hurl around “golden age of TV” all you want, but I can’t imagine any of these stories, some of them with minimal plot, some with no discernable plot at all, being transplanted to TV.

That doesn’t mean they aren’t deeply moving works of art, experiences with beginnings, middles and ends that carry emotions, characters and visceral sensations through their durations.

These are the things you can’t find anywhere else. I don’t know if the movies are blooming or dying (the consensus seems to be both), but they continue to be groundbreaking and frankly amazing.

I’m aware there’s five seasons of “Breaking Bad” on Netflix, but these 25 movies, 15 ranked, eight unranked and two Honorable Mentions, are the stuff that will blow your mind if you gave it the time of day.

Click through to browse the gallery and read each blurb. Reviews to each film are linked in the caption of each photo. Continue reading “The Best Movies of 2013”

2014 Oscar Predictions Round 3

“Her” and “American Hustle” give “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” a run for their money.

Checking Twitter in the past few weeks has been exhausting. It seems as though every hour there’s a new Top 10 list or set of nominations from a guild or critics group being handed out.

It’s not enough to merely list the best movies of the year but to give the best cast, score, soundtrack, performances, breakout performances, breakout directors, best movie posters, most underrated, most under the radar, best documentaries, best animated films, best foreign films and so on.

Would you know that each needs to be analyzed and has an impact on this thing we call the Oscar race? Critics awards in New York and L.A. (as dictated by people who live in New York and L.A.) hold a lot of influence, while others get laughed out of the room because they’re horrible barometers for the actual Oscar winner, as evidenced by statistics and numbers that often don’t hold up to a science anyway (ask Nate Silver).

What’s worse is when many of these Oscar pundits are shocked (SHOCKED) that a given critics’ group went the way it did. It’s as though every critics group is not just voting for the things they liked but are scrutinizing the “message” that a given selection will send. “Ooh, well we can’t choose ‘Gravity’ because that’ll make us look populist, but if we choose ‘American Hustle’ it’ll look like we were goaded by the most recent press screening, so we better choose ‘Her’ so that we keep our hip, indie cred.” How dare they not go for “12 Years a Slave” like everyone was sure they must?

The point is, all of these intangible drops in the pond do color the race as a whole. If we can pick up on those trends perhaps we can better predict. Suddenly it seems as though we have at least a four-horse race between “Gravity,” “American Hustle,” “12 Years a Slave” and “Her,” as all have picked up some major victories in the past few weeks. At the same time, certain contenders like Octavia Spencer, Tom Hanks or Paul Greengrass seem conspicuously absent from major nominations while people like Joaquin Phoenix, Will Forte and those behind “Before Midnight” look a lot less hopeless.

This remains anyone’s race, but somehow this wide open field feels a lot more treacherous.

* Designates a movie I’ve seen

Bulleted entries are Dark Horse candidates ranked in likelihood of getting in

Her

Best Picture

  1. Gravity*
  2. American Hustle
  3. 12 Years a Slave*
  4. Her*
  5. Captain Phillips*
  6. Saving Mr. Banks*
  7. Inside Llewyn Davis*
  8. Nebraska*
  9. The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
  • Dallas Buyers Club*
  • Fruitvale Station*
  • Before Midnight*
  • Rush*
  • All is Lost*
  • Blue Jasmine*
  • August: Osage County*
  • The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

If you want to make this easy, look at the American Film Institute’s unranked Top 10 list for the year, and that might be your Best Picture slate right there. Each of the movies selected has had well-rounded praise. “Gravity” is getting the populist vote, “American Hustle” scored with the New York film critics, “Her” with the Los Angeles critics and the National Board of Review, while “12 Years a Slave” has scored with everyone else.

As for the rest, the remaining films are using their winter season releases to drum up steam where those like “The Butler”, “Before Midnight” and “All is Lost” have to fight their way back into a crowded room. And those movies are getting no help from places like the Golden Globes. “The Butler” picked up a goose egg of nominations. But they did manage to shove “Rush” back into the hunt.

But Steve Pond has the reason above all why the cutoff may be at “The Wolf of Wall Street”: math. The Academy has yet to nominate 10 films under the new flexible rules, and in past years when the ballots were rerun, the magic number resulted in everywhere from five to nine movies, but never 10. Things could change, but as he explains, even the sheer numerical breakdown is against such an outcome. Continue reading “2014 Oscar Predictions Round 3”

Oscar Predictions 2014 – Round 2

2014 Oscar Predictions near the end of the year and just before critics groups weigh in.

A month after my first batch of Oscar predictions, my sentiments about this season are summed up in this paragraph from just one of Mark Harris’s brilliant Oscar posts on Grantland:

In September, I got some ribbing from colleagues for saying it was too early to make predictions. I hope I don’t cause any of them to have an aneurysm by ever so gently saying it again two months later. At the very least, can we stipulate that Variety‘s pronouncement that 2013 offers “more terrific awards possibilities than ever” feels slightly out of sync with the fare at your local multiplex, which is playing Free Birds, Last Vegas, Ender’s Game, and Bad Grandpa?

 Right now I can go out and recommend a half dozen great movies that are playing in places outside New York and L.A.. But the disconnect between “Oscar talk and real-world moviegoers,” as Harris also mentions, is built not just on hyperbole. As Oscar world has hit its lull between the time when “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” come out, pundits have grown tired discussing “12 Years a Slave,” “Gravity” and “Captain Phillips” right as these movies need it most.

Movies like “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “Nebraska” and “All is Lost” are encountering the same problem because everyone who matters saw these movies MONTHS ago at Cannes. I mean honestly, who hasn’t seen “Inside Llewyn Davis” yet? Oh, everyone.

My latest set of predictions doesn’t have much in ways of changes, and that’s more of the reason why it’s easy to become bored of all this. But I was able to see a few more films like “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Blue is the Warmest Color” and “All is Lost” to confirm what the pundits already knew or suspected.

Now in just a few days, the critics will weigh in and nominations from the Indie Spirits and Golden Globes will begin rolling in and dictating the shape of the season all over again. Until then, here’s going with the flow:

* Designates a movie I’ve seen

Bulleted entries are Dark Horse candidates ranked in likelihood of getting in

Best Picture

Inside Llewyn Davis
Inside Llewyn Davis – CBS Films
  1. Gravity*
  2. 12 Years a Slave*
  3. Captain Phillips*
  4. Saving Mr. Banks
  5. Inside Llewyn Davis*
  6. Nebraska*
  7. August: Osage County*
  8. Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
  9. The Wolf of Wall Street
  10. American Hustle
  • Dallas Buyers Club*
  • The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
  • Philomena*
  • All is Lost*
  • Blue Jasmine*
  • Before Midnight*
  • Her
  • Rush*
  • Fruitvale Station*

A month ago I worried that “Inside Llewyn Davis” might be ignored by the Academy, a slight Coen entry that would be overlooked by big Oscar bait like “12 Years,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “The Butler” and “August: Osage County.” Now before the critics have even had their say, “Inside Llewyn Davis” is riding a small wave of anticipation as “August” and “The Butler” buckle under the weight of their casts and their reviews. It seems like a lock compared to the question marks that are “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.”

The other strong entry of course is “Nebraska,” which I feared would have the same fate. That film however, also a Cannes entry, has now reminded everyone that it is a genuine crowd pleaser that will scratch just the right itch in this Academy demographic.

Unfortunately for “All is Lost,” “Blue Jasmine,” “Before Midnight” or “Her,” those two movies in my mind take up the “indie” spots that the Academy now reserves. And if any were to bump out “The Butler” or “August” it would be “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Philomena” or a real Academy shocker in “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty,” movies that are more Oscar friendly and could use the help.

Continue reading “Oscar Predictions 2014 – Round 2”

Oscar Predictions 2014 – Round 1

“12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity” weigh heavily in an Oscar season loaded with buzz and hyperbole.

Last year I got absolutely embroiled in the Oscar race. Such is the case when you have inordinate amounts of time on your hands. I wrote weekly round up columns of all the news and shake-ups in the race, and it was a blast.

This year, contenders have come and gone, with some setting the world on fire (“Gravity”, “12 Years a Slave”), some fizzling out fast (“The Fifth Estate”, “The Counselor”) and others getting pushed to 2014 and out of the race all together (“The Monuments Men”, “Foxcatcher”).

But whereas last year was remarkably unpredictable, this year’s race started early and shows little sign of relenting. The media quickly took over and has aimed to influence the outcome in anyway they can.

Why am I even bothering then to enter my voice into the fray? I chimed in with a controversial piece on why “Gravity” won’t win Best Picture just the other day, and I may yet change my mind, but I was originally going to resume my column and do so as a video.

Now to do so seems futile, and if I’m going to make picks at all, I’d like for them to add something to the conversation. I’d like for them to be pieces that involve me actually having seen the movies in question and not just responding to the media buzz. Hopefully I can call bullshit when need be too.

The smarter pundits out there do no different, and they’ve already been more than critical of the hyperbole that in late October has already made this race exhausting.

I’ll at least make clear now these articles will be less frequent. I can’t promise that they’ll be vastly different than what you might read anywhere else, but they’ll serve as sanity checks in an awards circuit run wild.

 

* Designates a movie I’ve seen

Bulleted entries are Dark Horse candidates ranked in likelihood of getting in

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks
  2. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave*
  3. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
  4. Josh Brolin – Labor Day
  5. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
  • Daniel Bruhl – Rush*
  • Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips*
  • Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners*
  • John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis*
  • Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
  • David Oyelowo – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
  • Andrew Dice Clay – Blue Jasmine*
  • Matthew McConaughey – Mud*
  • Geoffrey Rush – The Book Thief
  • James Franco – Spring Breakers*
  • James Gandolfini – Enough Said

So the first thing you’re wondering is, why is James Franco so low? After having just revisited “Spring Breakers,” Franco’s reptilian, corn-rowed, drug addled performance is something special. It’s dark and twisted but as much vulnerable and affecting as it is iconic and outrageous. Distributor A24 is taking his campaign somewhat seriously, as they’ve put out two “Consider This Shit” ads. Sadly, honoring a performance like that is simply not how the Academy works.

But to look at the field more practically, Tom Hanks is being argued by some as capable of winning a third Oscar. He seems to also be a lock for Lead Actor, but this is the one where he puts on his classic charm and shows why he’s a real movie star, but a likable one too. Having seen Michael Fassbender’s work in “12 Years a Slave,” it’s monumental. Physical, animalistic, and yet also sickly compassionate and reserved. He won’t be ignored like he was for Steve McQueen’s last film “Shame.” Whether or not the Academy will recognize another villainous turn in this role is another question. Jared Leto has earned a lot of buzz for his cross dressing role in “Dallas Buyers Club,” so he seems likely and could steal a win if the movie is liked enough.

More pundits however are arguing for Daniel Bruhl in “Rush.” To me the performance strikes me as mostly one-dimensional, a calculated job for which Bruhl may very quickly be typecast. Barkhad Abdi seems most likely to be the most worthy snub from a not quite stacked bunch, but a good group of nominees when I think how much I’d love to see Matthew McConaughey, Andrew Dice Clay, John Goodman or Jake Gyllenhaal all break into the mix.

Lupita Nyong'O 12 Years a Slave

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
  2. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station*
  3. Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave*
  4. June Squibb – Nebraska*
  5. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
  • Julia Roberts – August: Osage County*
  • Margo Martindale – August: Osage County*
  • Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave*
  • Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine*
  • Amy Adams – Her
  • Kristen Wiig – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
  • Naomie Harris – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  • Scarlett Johansson – Her

The supporting actress category is especially strong this year, and it’s amazing to me to see three African American actresses as near locks for this category. Oprah has star power on her side for this nomination, but she’s more than serviceable in “The Butler.” It’s a nuanced performance that never goes overboard. Octavia Spencer may be the only nomination “Fruitvale Station” gets this year. June Squibb is outrageous in “Nebraska,” and she has more than a few show-stopping moments that could win her an Oscar. But my money is on Lupita Nyong’o, a remarkably brave performance among many in “12 Years a Slave,” but she holds her own against titans of cinema.

The reason however I’ve included Jennifer Lawrence in my fifth spot is because I am beyond confused about “August: Osage County’s” role in this race. It was originally rumored that Meryl Streep might be campaigned for Supporting Actress, as the movie is really Julia Roberts’ story. Now where Julia will be campaigned seems uncertain. It might mean bad news for Margo Martindale splitting the vote and coming up short.

Also an interesting footnote is Scarlett Johansson’s bid for “Her.” Keep in mind that Johansson does only voice work for the role, and although it’s a long shot, a nomination would be the first time voice acting alone managed to land an Oscar nod. Also, go Sally Hawkins! Easily the most underrated part of “Blue Jasmine.”

Cate Blanchett Blue Jasmine

Best Actress

  1. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine*
  2. Sandra Bullock – Gravity*
  3. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County*
  4. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
  5. Judi Dench – Philomena*
  • Kate Winslet – Labor Day
  • Amy Adams – American Hustle
  • Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue is the Warmest Color
  • Julie Delpy – Before Midnight*
  • Berenice Bejo – The Past

Perhaps more than any race, Best Actress is especially tight. Months ago this seemed to be Blanchett’s Oscar to lose. Now all five candidates stand to be former winners, with Kate Winslet or Judi Dench acting as the fifth spot contenders, and anyone could give them a run for their money. Blanchett, with the help of Woody Allen and his reputation for championing women to Oscar wins, delivers a convincingly dignified nervous breakdown. Sandra Bullock shows depth and naturalism under the worst of acting conditions. And Streep chews as much scenery as you may have imagined. Streep’s spitfire performance is a thousand times better than her work in “The Iron Lady,” one that has as much pathos and depth as it does firecrackers, so I’m finding it hard to say she couldn’t win a FOURTH Oscar.

If there’s a reason I don’t like Dench in the fifth spot, it’s because Philomena Lee is an awkward character that Dench doing what she does best doesn’t fully earn. Just how big is Amy Adams’s role in “American Hustle” is a looming question mark, but on the outskirts are Exarchopoulos, coming off a big controversy with her director and film, and Delpy, who needs to strike while the iron is hot if she is to convince the Academy that her Celine is a character 18 years in the making.

Robert Redford All Is Lost

Best Actor

  1. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave*
  2. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips*
  3. Robert Redford – All is Lost
  4. Bruce Dern – Nebraska*
  5. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyer’s Club
  • Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis*
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Christian Bale – American Hustle
  • Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Her
  • Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  • Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station*

Best Actor always seems to be a packed race, so it smacks of hyperbole to say that this year is more or less so than in years past. But what is unique about this year is that given this deep field in which more than a few worthy candidates will be left out, there does not seem to be a notable frontrunner.

Ejiofor will earn his spot because his movie more than anything validates it. It’s a magnificently brave performance with any number of stunning displays of talent to point to as evidence. Hanks, Redford, Dern and McConaughey however have more of the buzz. While McConaughey’s time is due, Hanks, Dern and Redford have all used their performances as something of comebacks, proof to the Academy and the world that they are deserving of the titles of some of America’s great actors.

And yet who is the most vulnerable in such a category when there are so many other possibilities? Hanks could be out if he’s the front-runner for Supporting. Dern may be too modest and simple in Alexander Payne’s lightweight (but brilliant) film. And it may NOT be McConaughey’s time. Maybe it’s Leo’s time, or Joaquin Phoenix’s time, who shows a sentimental side in “Her” the Academy didn’t know he had. Oscar Isaac is as deserving as all these actors, but his deeply lived in, realistic performance is made to feel unlikeable, not in the juicy, good way, and it may hurt him.

American Hustle

Best Director

  1. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave*
  2. Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity*
  3. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips*
  4. David O. Russell – American Hustle
  5. Joel and Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis*
  • Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Spike Jonze – Her
  • Alexander Payne – Nebraska*
  • J.C. Chandor – All is Lost
  • John Lee Hancock – Saving Mr. Banks
  • Denis Villeneuve – Prisoners*

Best Director, as evidenced by every year except last one, is a good barometer for the Best Picture front runners and vice versa. So it seems as though McQueen and Cuaron are sure-fire locks. Not only are their films magnificent, there’s no question that their vision is integral to their success.

Greengrass helms the next big frontrunner, and this movie is directly up his alley. “Saving Mr. Banks” is the fourth biggest contender, but John Lee Hancock will not be the face or name people remember after seeing that film.

So that leaves O. Russell to clean up a “third time’s a charm” nomination, and the fifth will be a surprise. Scorsese has been snubbed here before, but Chandor and Villeneuve could be compelling dark horses if their movies don’t make the final Best Picture cut.

Gravity

Best Picture

  1. Gravity*
  2. 12 Years a Slave*
  3. Captain Phillips*
  4. Saving Mr. Banks
  5. American Hustle
  6. August: Osage County*
  7. Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
  8. The Wolf of Wall Street
  9. Inside Llewyn Davis*
  10. 10. Rush*
  • Nebraska*
  • All is Lost
  • Blue Jasmine*
  • Before Midnight*
  • Her
  • Dallas Buyers Club

Whew. That’s quite a field. I can speak with certainty to the top three at the very least. In fact, this is a two, if not one horse race as far as many are concerned.

“Saving Mr. Banks” is currently very strong after its very first premiere, so it seems next likely. “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” will have a lot of hype to live up to, and if they fail, then this could be a very different field. Otherwise, they seem to be confident contenders. “August: Osage County” will soon look very strong, and “The Butler” is looking increasingly weak, but each have big casts and Academy friendly ambitions, and it’d be tough to bet against them too.

What’s left are two spots, one I’ve reserved for the “indie” spot and the other for the “populist, sports movie” spot. Unfortunately there’s only one film that meets the latter criteria, and that’s the mediocre “Rush.” In the other category, just about a half dozen things could fill that single void, and currently “All is Lost” looks the strongest. My money will be on “Inside Llewyn Davis” to nab that indie spot, but it will depend on which movies critics and guilds come back for at the end of the year and how some of these movies perform with the public.

Gravity will NOT Win Best Picture… Probably

Some reasons why “Gravity” stands a tough shot at winning the Oscar for Best Picture.

 

“Gravity” may just be the finest movie of 2013. It’s a game-changer, as cliché as it is to say that, and there’s only one other film so far this year that may yet go down as an all-time Hollywood classic.

But it will not win the Oscar for Best Picture.

This may just be a controversial, trolling argument fanning the flame that is the media hype surrounding this year’s barely begun Oscar race (and even as I write this I’m a bit hesitant to say its chances are already over, especially when people already disagree with me), but ask any pundit, and they’ll tell you that the front runner status is not a desirable one to have this early in the game.

What happens is this: there’s a “spin” machine that goes into action, hurling negative press at the wall until something sticks. Before long a “narrative” forms that can overcome quality, dollars or buzz.

“The Hurt Locker” and “The Artist” each survived attacks of plagiarism, but when time passed and reactions settled, movies that were first hailed as generation defining masterpieces like “The Social Network” and “Up in the Air” lost steam fast when people decided they were just “pretty good.”

“12 Years a Slave” may be the “official” front-runner, it also being debuted at the Toronto Film Festival and being the only film to get an article as hyperbolic as this, but the public has drawn first blood on “Gravity” with three straight weeks as the number one box office draw, and the arguments hurled against “Gravity” may outweigh those for Steve McQueen’s film. Here’s what it’s up against over the next few months: Continue reading “Gravity will NOT Win Best Picture… Probably”

12 Years a Slave

“12 Years a Slave” is the heaviest, hardest film to watch of the year, but it’s much more than a grim history lesson.

A black woman in tatters is sitting in a cart crying uncontrollably as she pulls up to a luxurious Southern plantation home. A wealthy white woman comes to greet her new “property” and asks her husband why this one is in tears. She’s been separated from her children in the slave trade; it couldn’t be helped, he explains. “Poor woman,” the new master opines, “Your children will soon be forgotten.”

Such coldness despite an occasionally glossy and soothing tone is business as usual in the masterpiece “12 Years a Slave.” Like the stylish but burdensome “Shame” before it, Steve McQueen’s film is by far the heaviest, most difficult film to endure of the year. It should not be taken lightly that this is a film about slavery and all its harsh colors. Such devastating films are usually just about braving it only to learn a history lesson. “12 Years a Slave” is about maintaining your fortitude and still knowing who you are when you come out the other side.

The film is quite simply the story of a free black man living in upstate New York in 1840 who was kidnapped and sold into slavery for 12 years. That the man lived to tell his tale and write the memoir that inspired this film is magnificent enough. But McQueen uses Solomon Northup’s (Chiwetel Ejiofor) story to show us what freedom is. It’s not the ability to live in wealth and privilege, to live free of pain or to be allowed to walk where you please. Northup earned his freedom by remembering who he was when the time came. Being strong enough to retain that memory: that’s freedom. Continue reading “12 Years a Slave”

Chicago International Film Festival Preview 2013

A preview of 35 films showing at the 49th Chicago International Film Festival (CIFF) between October 10-24

Toronto, Sundance, New York and now Telluride get all the love.

Those North American festivals have been covered to death in this Oscar season that’s come (and been declared finished) all too early, and the focus moves so fast that the media neglects to appeal to the millions in the Midwest and elsewhere who never get to see those buzzy movies with that tiny fraction of the film loving community.

But I call Chicago home, and so do thousands of other film lovers. Our Chicago International Film Festival is in its 49th year, and although Harvey Weinstein didn’t think to premiere his awards bait movies here, we get a diverse line-up of films and crave guidance, recommendations and coverage just like anyone else.

This year’s lineup, which runs October 10-24, is now available for sale to the general public and can be viewed in full here, seems especially strong, and my lineup is fairly stacked with a handful of near schedule conflicts. So if you’ve got a Festival Pass, here’s a little who’s who of 35 of this year’s CIFF movies.

*Films marked with an asterisk represent films on my personal schedule Continue reading “Chicago International Film Festival Preview 2013”