2014 Oscar Winner Predictions

“12 Years a Slave” will win Best Picture, along with three other Oscars.

The Oscars are here, although maybe not soon enough. A report recently said that two thirds of Americans have not seen any of the Best Picture winners yet. That to me doesn’t add up for a movie like “Gravity” that made as much money as it did, but the point is that this awards season, while interesting, has just gone on too long. A New York Times article wondered if the average individual is generally apathetic to the whole institution of the Oscars.

I hope that isn’t true, but it’s starting to feel that way when the debate over “12 Years a Slave” versus “American Hustle” has long since past, when we’ve heard the story about Jonah Hill getting paid as little as SAG would allow to work for Martin Scorsese over and over again, and when even “Let it Go” parodies are getting old.

Anyway, here are my final predictions. You may find there’s more consensus and predictability than you’d think.

12 Years a Slave

Best Picture

Months ago I wrote an article bluntly titled “Gravity Will NOT Win Best Picture… Probably.” It was smart of me to add on that last word, because the good news is that “Gravity,” my favorite film of the year, is still here. It is still as much of a favorite to win now as it was back when it premiered at Toronto, despite all the things I said about it technically having come true.

But in the case of “Gravity,” the nitpickers have beaten the dollars, and a more “worthy” title, one that isn’t seen as just “a ride” or a movie with a “bad script” will have to take its place. That film will be “12 Years a Slave,” as many predicted long ago that it was invincible. It has now survived with wins at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes as the one to beat, and yet its tie in the Producers Guild Awards with “Gravity” confirms just how close this race is.

“American Hustle” may not be the last minute favorite after all, and it’s a shame for David O. Russell, who would now be 0-3 in a row on his current hot streak. The third time is not the charm, it seems, but I’m betting he’ll strike again, whereas Alfonso Cuaron and Steve McQueen may never make another Oscar friendly movie. The reason I feel it can’t win, and why some are predicting it might not win anything, is, what exactly is the narrative behind this movie winning? It’s a throwback, but not quite. It’s a crowd pleaser, but not entirely. It’s madcap fun, brilliant and original, but some would argue even that’s not all true.

“Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” each have their supporters who would say otherwise about all of the above, and a win for them will mean something special.

Gravity

“Gravity” is a jaw-dropping sci-fi that rewrites the rules of cinema.

For all of the innovative, jaw-dropping, never before seen CGI wonder in Alfonso Cuaron’s “Gravity,” the impossibly balletic movement of Emmanuel Lubezki’s camera and the impeccably seamless 3-D effects, one of the film’s most impressive and memorable things is something Cuaron has withheld.

In space, there is nothing to carry sound. Satellites collide and rupture into millions of pieces, jetpacks soar and glide through the stars and astronauts dangle from floating space stations, clinging with their last ounce of strength to avoid floating into the distance, and nothing is to be heard.

Although the swell of an orchestra will remind you this is a Hollywood film, “Gravity” shatters the mold of what it is to be epic. Today’s tentpole movies are all noise and bombast; the multi-million dollar visual effects are par for the course. Unlike “Avatar,” “Life of Pi” and “Hugo” before it, 3-D and CGI are not here to enhance. Working through technology that needed to be invented, Cuaron has invented something breathtakingly original.

His focus on sights, not sound, story nor style, has nearly taken cinema back to its silent day roots and helped to imagine a future vision for what cinema can be. Continue reading “Gravity”

Side by Side: Amores Perros and Y Tu Mama Tambien

“Y Tu Mama Tambien” and “Amores Perros” are both early 2000s Mexican films, but they have more differences than they’d appear on paper.

At the dawn of the 21st Century, two directors emerged out of Mexico City with gruff, intimate films in their native tongue, but each with sprawling stories, symbolism and philosophies.

The first, Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu, made his debut film “Amores Perros” and has since moved on to Oscar bait with his films “Babel” and “Biutiful.” Critics have noted that his films have gotten grimmer, darker and more depressing as he’s grown as a filmmaker, but his next film, 2014’s “Birdman,” will be an American comedy.

The second, Alfonso Cuaron, had already been established with big budget titles, but returned to Mexico for the frankly sexual “Y Tu Mama Tambien,” a road-trip, coming of age story that could’ve never been made in Hollywood. Cuaron has now entered into the upper crust of blockbuster filmmakers with arguably the best Harry Potter movie “The Prisoner of Azkaban,” “Children of Men” and his upcoming space epic “Gravity.”

On paper, the two films are strikingly similar, a good starting point for Mexican cinema in the 2000s. In fact, both launched the career of actor Gael Garcia Bernal. But which is really the more depressing or the tougher sit? Neither film can be easily classified into the indie, foreign art film genre so easily, and although each is a striking example of how each filmmaker would grow and develop, neither can be so easily pigeonholed as equal entries into their broader, on-paper filmographies.

“Amores Perros” and “Y Tu Mama Tambien” may sound so similar because on a fundamental level, they’re both love stories. In tragic ways, they depict nuance, naiveté, betrayal and heartbreak.

“Y Tu Mama Tambien” especially is anchored on these themes. The first scene is an intensely passionate love scene between Tenoch (Diego Luna) and his girlfriend, in which he stops her and makes her promise she won’t cheat. Cross that with the frankly hilarious sex scene in which Julio (Bernal) and his girlfriend have sex while her parents wait for them to leave just downstairs. In each instance, sex is built on mistrust, a bad omen for any road trip. Continue reading “Side by Side: Amores Perros and Y Tu Mama Tambien”