Tag: Amour

2013 Oscars: Final Predictions

I just finished watching a Katie Couric special edition of “20/20” in which they talked about everything that makes the Oscars iconic, but none of the reasons why I actually care about the awards. Hearing about Bjork’s swan dress is cute, but I’m in this for the movies.

Every year I come up with elaborate reasons why this year’s winner will mean something. For “The Artist” it was that even a silent, foreign, black and white comedy could win Best Picture and make people interested in a great form of movie history for just a little while. For “The King’s Speech” it was that the love for Old Hollywood was alive and well, even if I was pulling for the generational landmark that would’ve been a victory for “The Social Network.” And for “The Hurt Locker,” it signified a turning point in our view of the campaign in the Middle East, as well as a long denied achievement for women everywhere, which really is something to cheer about.

And yet just as I study every nominee and understand every nuance of the race, all of that is forgotten as quickly as the next year, and the only things that are left are the great movies themselves.

I think this year’s Oscars matter because above all, they will honor a lot of great movies, more than in most years. I may not think “Argo” is the best movie of the year, nor is my pick even nominated, but I think that whatever wins, it will be a victory for quality (except for “Les Miz” obviously).

Here then are my final predictions for what will take home gold on Oscar night. This year has been so exciting, so tumultuous, so long and so controversial that if I have to make one correct prediction, it’s that I will be wrong… possibly a lot.

Argo Ben Affleck

Best Picture

  • Argo
  • Lincoln
  • Silver Linings Playbook
  • Life of Pi
  • Django Unchained
  • Zero Dark Thirty
  • Amour
  • Les Miserables
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild

I don’t think I ever wanted to admit that there was going to be a sure fire winner for Best Picture, and I don’t think I ever could. The “Argo” freight train of success is still relatively fresh news. A lot has happened since it premiered at Telluride back in September, and there was a time just six weeks ago when nominations were announced that it looked to be a dead and gone afterthought. Now it has swept every major guild prize and award in sight, and it is poised to make history no matter what happens. All the comparisons that have been made to explain its victory in the context of past winners will be erased because its victory (or loss) will be completely unprecedented. Pundits will now point to it as the example.

If it wins, it will be because it is a great film, but also because it is an agreeable film that was able to weather the storm of controversy and barrier to entry better than any other.

“Lincoln” hardly seems formidable, and in fact “Life of Pi” or “Silver Linings Playbook” look even stronger with more recent wins in the bag, but it remains an even greater film in my view and is still, on paper, the predictable Oscar winner.

Brian’s Pick: Argo

Dark Horse: Lincoln, followed by Silver Linings Playbook, then Life of Pi

Should Win: Life of Pi Continue reading “2013 Oscars: Final Predictions”

Amour

Michael Haneke’s “Amour” is a film that requires no sentiment or tears shed on its behalf. That’s because for films about mortality, few are as quiet, observant, simple and without incident as “Amour.” And yet Haneke, known for his solemn, chilling art films like “Cache” and “The White Ribbon,” has made a bleak masterpiece that does away with big, philosophical ideas and focuses in on the beautiful love story at its core.

“Your concern is no use to me.” That’s Georges’s (Jean-Louis Trintignant) message to his daughter Eva (Isabelle Huppert) as his wife Anne (Emmanuelle Riva) lies on her deathbed. What use does it serve, he asks his daughter, for Eva to worry when her only solutions are more unsuccessful surgeries, more time under life support in a nursing home and more pain?

Haneke’s film skillfully observes that death is a part of life, but it’s the general agony that disturbs the most, not the absence of transparency into this woman’s suffering, and not the lack of drama. “Amour” is a love story, one about the sheer burden of keeping a love or marriage together, but it’s a far stretch from the sappy tearjerkers of the world. This art film unsympathetically challenges this romance and remains a distant observer to their tireless passion. Continue reading “Amour”

Oscars 2013: It's Anyone's Race

Last year when the Oscar nominations were announced, I couldn’t stop myself from yelling at the TV when “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” got nominated for Best Picture.

This year, there were a lot of snubs and a lot of surprises, but I held my tongue.

That’s because last year, I was more or less certain going in that not only would “The Artist” be nominated, it would probably win. The news was what else would share its spotlight in history, not the actual awards.

2012 is different. I didn’t know for sure what would be nominated, and noting how many predictions I got wrong, I can safely say I still don’t know what might win. In ANY category. We still have a real race on our hands.

No, we didn’t see a real surprise nominee like “Skyfall,” “The Master” or something completely out of left field like “The Intouchables” or “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” to round out a top 10, but you tell me who’s going to win Best Picture.

“Lincoln” got 12 nominations, which is a lot. That’s as many as “Ben-Hur” got. But is the movie so universally loved that it can make a clean sweep? It’s hardly Spielberg’s best movie, even if it is his best in a decade, but some people have viewed it as homework.

I have more questions about “Life of Pi’s” chances. “Life of Pi” got 11 nominations, none of them from acting, but it did get a surprise Adapted Screenplay nod and Best Director nod. “Life of Pi” did well at the box office, but how big was this movie’s Oscar campaign? Not as big as “Silver Linings Playbook,” and certainly not as big as “Lincoln.” This movie is practically under the radar, a movie that was probably in the five or six slot for nomination is now looking like the front runner.

As early as yesterday, I would’ve said “Argo” or “Zero Dark Thirty” would be the front runners to win. “Argo” is the most well-liked movie of the year. Very few people have a bad word to say about it, and just about everyone has seen it, both of which are things that none of the other nominees can claim. “Zero Dark Thirty” has a lot of controversy behind it, but it is by far the critical darling of the year. Now however, neither Ben Affleck nor former winner Kathryn Bigelow have been nominated for Best Director. Movies have won Best Picture without winning Best Director before, but only three times in the 85 year history has a movie won Best Picture without even being nominated, those being in 1927, 1931 and 1989 when “Driving Miss Daisy” had a surprise victory.

“Silver Linings” isn’t that weak either. With Jacki Weaver getting in, it’s the first movie since “Reds” to be nominated in every acting category. That gives it eight nominations, which is nothing to scoff at.

Could “Amour” or “Beasts of the Southern Wild” pull off a surprise win? Michael Haneke was on a short list for possible director nominees, but almost no one had first-timer Benh Zeitlin on their lists. Both movies are riding the waves of having the youngest and oldest Best Actress nominees of all time in Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva.

Even “Django Unchained” doesn’t look too weak. I predicted it would get seven nominations, but it’s got five, and Christoph Waltz taking Leo’s or even Javier Bardem’s spot says something.

That’s already a lot to mull over, but can you honestly make a prediction in any of the other races?

Daniel Day-Lewis seems perfectly plausible to win Best Actor. He’s playing Abraham Lincoln for God sakes. But he would be making history as the only actor to have won three Oscars. Are we prepared to call Daniel Day-Lewis the BEST actor of all time if he wins? Perhaps Joaquin Phoenix is stronger than we think, or maybe “Silver Linings” can ride an acting wave for an Oscar for Bradley Cooper.

Best Actress? Who knows. Jennifer Lawrence is the real movie star of the bunch, but Wallis can light up a room, Jessica Chastain is being called a female powerhouse in “Zero Dark Thirty,” Riva has the support of an older branch who remembers her in French New Wave classics, and Naomi Watts has the British voting block in her largely tearjerker of a movie.

Maybe Robert De Niro will end up being the three time Oscar winner, not Day-Lewis. But consider that everyone else in the Best Supporting category has already won. That’s just unprecedented.

The only conceivable prediction thus far is Anne Hathaway in “Les Miserables.” She steals the show in her three minute song, and there’s no telling that she’s one of the biggest movie stars right now who arguably deserves one. But just how good are Sally Field, Helen Hunt and Amy Adams in their movies? This is not a weak category, as I previously assumed.

No, I’m not quite ready to make any prediction. And that’s a good thing. For years the Academy has been trying desperately to get more people to actually watch the Oscars, be it through trendy hosts, more Best Picture nominees, an earlier schedule and a different presentation format. But now the Oscars have added one element that the show hasn’t had in years: surprise.

Correction: In a previous version, it was incorrectly stated that “Lincoln” received the most nominations of all time, tied with “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “LOTR: The Return of the King.” In actuality, 14 nominations is the record held by “All About Eve” and “Titanic.” The record for most wins is 11.

Is Movie Culture an Endangered Species?

Did you know that “Zero Dark Thirty” is already dead in the water in the Oscar race?

It was news to me too, not only because it’s the new consensus title amongst critics as the best picture of the year, but mainly because it’s already January 1st and I still haven’t seen it!

Kathryn Bigelow’s film is in a peculiar place this year as the most talked about movie of the year that no one has watched yet. Controversy over being Obama propaganda and an advocate of using torture in interrogation, “ZDT” has stirred innumerable debate amongst critics, Academy voters and Hollywood insiders, but it doesn’t release wide until January 11.

“Zero Dark Thirty” is still a sure-fire Oscar nominee if not a guaranteed winner, but the wave of discussion may have peaked too soon. Because Oscar nominations come out the day before the movie is released, the press may already have moved on by the time “ZDT” hits the Midwest. The general public can’t help but be way behind the curve.

“Zero Dark Thirty” is just one example of how movie culture is limping beside TV and music. With a wave of great movies this fall, critics were quick to declare 2012 a terrific year for the movies while simultaneously penning columns that declared cinema itself dead.

It sounds like an oxymoron, and no can seem to figure out why these movies with such rich critical discourse are being forgotten about in place of cheesy family movies and gargantuan blockbusters.

They can’t figure it out because they’re part of the problem. Film criticism has remained exclusive while intelligent discussion about other forms of pop culture has been effortlessly provided to the masses. We’ve resigned to the belief that people who are deeply interested in the movies will come looking for criticism while the rest just read for recommendations. We’ve isolated ourselves from the national conversation.

People can now watch TV and listen to music like critics. I can immediately stream Frank Ocean’s “Channel Orange” on Spotify and read Pitchfork’s review all on the day it comes out. I can watch the new episode of “Parks and Recreation” and read Alan Sepinwall’s review the next morning, if not within hours. And if I’ve missed it, I can watch it the next day on Hulu. In both cases, I can be part of the critical discussion as soon as the paid critics are, and I can have just as loud of a voice on my blog and on Twitter. Continue reading “Is Movie Culture an Endangered Species?”

Off The Red Carpet: Week of 11/28 – 12/5

I was tempted to just post this article on Tuesday, because this week has been HUGE for Oscar news. Three categories shortlisted and the first of the critics’ awards dropped; that’s a lot to cover.

New York Film Critics Circle Announce 2012 Awards

I wrote more on the Oscar chances for all of these movies now that the NYFCC has had their say at a new blog called The Artifice. Just know that “Zero Dark Thirty” is now the movie to beat, McConaughey and Weisz have earned a new life, and “The Master” is facing an increasingly uphill battle at a nomination. (via nyfcc.com) UPDATE: Turns out the movies that do not appear on this list didn’t do as badly as everyone expected. The NYFCC has a complicated ballot voting system to determine winners in each category, and this year just about every category was taken to multiple rounds of voting to determine a consensus, proving that 2012 has a wide array of great movies with supporters in every camp. In fact, “Lincoln,” which performed so handsomely here, actually placed fourth on the overall ballot for Best Picture, behind “The Master” and “Moonrise Kingdom.” (via J. Hoberman)

Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty

Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner – Lincoln

Best Actress: Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress: Sally Field – Lincoln

Best Supporting Actor: Matthew McConaughey – Bernie, Magic Mike

Best Cinematographer: Greig Fraser – Zero Dark Thirty

Best Animated Film: Frankenweenie

Best Non-Fiction Film: The Central Park Five

Best Foreign Film: Amour

Best First Film: David France – How to Survive a Plague

searching-for-sugar-man-main

Documentary Feature category shortlisted

Maybe normal people think it’s crazy that documentaries, of all things, could make some movie buffs so up in arms. And yet that is the case every year when the Documentary Branch of the Academy announces their shortlist. Now granted, last year these people snubbed Werner Herzog, Errol Morris and Steve James, so it was unlikely there was going to be even greater fervor this year. But, despite me having seen only a handful, the number of films I’ve heard of on this list of 15 and the number still absent speak to how great a year it’s been for documentaries. All this despite the branch’s head Michael Moore instating new rules, such as the requirement to get your movie screened in New York and L.A. and reviewed by The New York Times. Here’s the list: (via Oscars.com)

“Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry”

“Bully”

“Chasing Ice”

“Detropia”

“Ethel”

“5 Broken Cameras”

“The Gatekeepers”

“The House I Live In”

“How to Survive a Plague”

“The Imposter”

“The Invisible War”

“Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”

“Searching for Sugar Man”

“This is Not a Film”

“The Waiting Room”

So missing from this list is “The Central Park Five,” which if you were paying attention above just won the NYFCC honors, “West of Memphis,” “The Queen of Versailles,” “Paul Williams Still Alive,” “Marley,” “Jiro Dreams of Sushi,” “Samsara” and “Marina Ambrovic: The Artist is Present,” which, admittedly, could be a short list all its own. This list of 15 could be a lot worse than it is, and the few that have been snubbed won’t have any trouble getting seen. This is me trying to not get too angry.

SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN

Visual Effects category shortlisted

The Academy announced on Thursday the list of 10 potential nominees in the Visual Effects category. The full list is below: (via Oscars.com)

“The Amazing Spider-Man”
“Cloud Atlas”
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“John Carter”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
“Prometheus”
“Skyfall”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”

You’ll immediately notice the snub of “The Impossible,” which has an unbelievably lifelike depiction of a tsunami hitting Thailand. My guess is that “The Impossible’s” sequence, while dazzling, is just a small part of an otherwise effects free movie, thus paving the way instead for these 10 gargantuan Hollywood blockbusters. “Snow White,” “John Carter” and “Spider-Man” may all be surprises, but more pleasant surprises would’ve been something like “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “The Grey,” “The Cabin in the Woods,” “Looper,” “Flight” or even “Chronicle” from way back in February.

Best Live Action Short Film Category shortlisted

This may come as a shock, but the Live Action short category is actually news! The news here is that the shortlist has a record 11 films on it due to a tie in the voting. That won’t mean any more or less nominees, still anywhere from three to five, but it’s something. The only names you’ll recognize however are Ron and Bryce Dallas Howard for their short film “when you find me.” Good luck seeing any of these. (via Oscars.com)

“A Fábrica (The Factory),” Aly Muritiba, director (Grafo Audiovisual)

“Asad,” Bryan Buckley, director, and Mino Jarjoura, producer (Hungry Man)

“Buzkashi Boys,” Sam French, director, and Ariel Nasr, producer (Afghan Film Project)

“Curfew,” Shawn Christensen, director (Fuzzy Logic Pictures)

“Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw),” Tom Van Avermaet, director, and Ellen De Waele, producer (Serendipity Films)

“Henry,” Yan England, director (Yan England)

“Kiruna-Kigali,” Goran Kapetanovic, director (Hepp Film AB)

“The Night Shift Belongs to the Stars,” Silvia Bizio and Paola Porrini Bisson, producers (Oh! Pen LLC)

“9meter,” Anders Walther, director, and Tivi Magnusson, producer (M & M Productions A/S)

“Salar,” Nicholas Greene, director, and Julie Buck, producer (Nicholas Greene)

“when you find me,” Ron Howard, executive producer, and Bryce Dallas Howard, director (Freestyle Picture Company)

“Amour” sweeps European Film Awards

It isn’t so often a Palme D’Or winner can actually devour every other award its up for. “Amour” won Best European Picture, Director for Michael Haneke, Actor for Jean-Louis Trintignant and Actress for Emmanuelle Riva. That’s why this is increasingly looking like an even bigger Oscar contender than some are predicting. For what it’s worth, Haneke has already won Best Director for both “The White Ribbon” and “Cache.” (via Indiewire)

Week 7 Predictions Continue reading “Off The Red Carpet: Week of 11/28 – 12/5”

Off the Red Carpet – Week of 10/3 – 10/10

I needed to find a way to write about the Oscars. I’m constantly seeing news and updates in everything I read and everyone I follow on Twitter, so I know what’s happening almost as soon as they do.

But I don’t live in New York or LA. I don’t have press access to early film screenings. I can’t do more than follow distributors on Facebook and Twitter to get the same updates the pros do.

I’m viewing all this second hand, from just off the red carpet.

But that doesn’t mean I can’t share everything I’ve heard, and that doesn’t mean I don’t have my own take on all that’s going on.

So what I’ve decided to do is start a weekly column where I round up all the Oscar news I’ve found relevant in the past week and share it with my own spin. It’s the least I can do.

Up Till Now

Since this is my first “Off the Red Carpet” column, I feel it’s necessary to catch everyone up on all that’s happened in the race so far.

“Amour” won the Palme D’Or at Cannes, making it only the second time a director has won with two consecutive films. Director Michael Haneke won with his previous film, “The White Ribbon,” back in 2008. That film was nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, but came home empty handed. This one on the other hand is a contender for Picture, Actor, Actress, Director, Foreign Film and possibly more. It’s the story of an elderly couple of music teachers who is torn apart when one of them suffers a stroke.

The Oscar nominations have been moved up to the early date of Thursday, January 10, 2013, meaning that the nominations are in fact before the Golden Globes. This could prove troublesome for movies being released late in the year, but it’ll keep buzzy movies in the conversation just when they need to be.

David O. Russell’s “Silver Linings Playbook” won the People’s Choice Prize at the Toronto International Film Festival, making it the new front-runner for Best Picture.

It’s pronounced “que-ven-zha-ne.” Get to know the name.

Seth McFarlane of “Family Guy” and “Ted” was selected as this year’s Oscar host. Yes yes yes, younger demo, he was good on SNL, Hollywood insider, blah de blah. Just please no racist “Beasts of the Southern Wild” jokes from a talking blender. Continue reading “Off the Red Carpet – Week of 10/3 – 10/10”