“Argo” may not try anything completely new or daring, but it’s an ambitious achievement and a new classic. “Argo” is the most deserving of all the Best Picture nominees.
Image courtesy of CNN
As it became increasingly certain that “Argo” would walk away with a Best Picture Oscar Sunday night, the articles claiming why “Argo” was not worthy of the movie industry’s top prize were a dime a dozen. Heaven forbid that in this Internet age we have something other than a contrarian opinion, or that we commit the even worse sin of agreeing with the Oscars.
Because a funny thing happens when something or someone becomes the assumed front-runner: people get begrudgingly accepting of whatever it will be. Everyone knew “Argo” and Anne Hathaway and Daniel Day-Lewis would win, but was anyone really happy about it until they finally did and gave the touching (or in Day-Lewis’s case hilarious) speech they were always meant to?
The Academy’s stamp of approval suggests to most that something is good and for the most part deserving, but the real gem is something else entirely. Yet somehow I doubt that every critic who writes about the Oscars for a living would be infinitely happier if “Holy Motors” was the indisputable winner, because a win for a movie like that wouldn’t say as much about this year in movies as “Argo” will.
I just finished watching a Katie Couric special edition of “20/20” in which they talked about everything that makes the Oscars iconic, but none of the reasons why I actually care about the awards. Hearing about Bjork’s swan dress is cute, but I’m in this for the movies.
Every year I come up with elaborate reasons why this year’s winner will mean something. For “The Artist” it was that even a silent, foreign, black and white comedy could win Best Picture and make people interested in a great form of movie history for just a little while. For “The King’s Speech” it was that the love for Old Hollywood was alive and well, even if I was pulling for the generational landmark that would’ve been a victory for “The Social Network.” And for “The Hurt Locker,” it signified a turning point in our view of the campaign in the Middle East, as well as a long denied achievement for women everywhere, which really is something to cheer about.
And yet just as I study every nominee and understand every nuance of the race, all of that is forgotten as quickly as the next year, and the only things that are left are the great movies themselves.
I think this year’s Oscars matter because above all, they will honor a lot of great movies, more than in most years. I may not think “Argo” is the best movie of the year, nor is my pick even nominated, but I think that whatever wins, it will be a victory for quality (except for “Les Miz” obviously).
Here then are my final predictions for what will take home gold on Oscar night. This year has been so exciting, so tumultuous, so long and so controversial that if I have to make one correct prediction, it’s that I will be wrong… possibly a lot.
Best Picture
Argo
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty
Amour
Les Miserables
Beasts of the Southern Wild
I don’t think I ever wanted to admit that there was going to be a sure fire winner for Best Picture, and I don’t think I ever could. The “Argo” freight train of success is still relatively fresh news. A lot has happened since it premiered at Telluride back in September, and there was a time just six weeks ago when nominations were announced that it looked to be a dead and gone afterthought. Now it has swept every major guild prize and award in sight, and it is poised to make history no matter what happens. All the comparisons that have been made to explain its victory in the context of past winners will be erased because its victory (or loss) will be completely unprecedented. Pundits will now point to it as the example.
If it wins, it will be because it is a great film, but also because it is an agreeable film that was able to weather the storm of controversy and barrier to entry better than any other.
“Lincoln” hardly seems formidable, and in fact “Life of Pi” or “Silver Linings Playbook” look even stronger with more recent wins in the bag, but it remains an even greater film in my view and is still, on paper, the predictable Oscar winner.
Brian’s Pick: Argo
Dark Horse: Lincoln, followed by Silver Linings Playbook, then Life of Pi
We are now less than two weeks away from the Oscars. The guilds are still chiming in, but the last of the major awards has spoken, and as conflicted as I am to say it, I’m finally jumping on the “Argo” train.
Two things convinced me.
The first was the win at the BAFTAs, the British Oscars so to speak. In a place where it arguably doesn’t have the same cultural, zeitgeist leg to stand on, “Argo” held strong against “Les Miserables” and Michael Haneke in the Best Director race.
But more importantly, it took this long for me to realize that “Argo” was always the front-runner. Way back in September at the Telluride Film Festival, “Argo” thrilled audiences in a way that finally declared Oscar season open. It was the first in a long line of contenders in a year that over eight months hadn’t yet proved why it was so great for movies.
And now it’s still here. “Argo” survived where “Lincoln,” “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Les Miserables” all peaked and faded and “Zero Dark Thirty” and “Django Unchained” buckled under their own controversy.
“Argo” is here to stay, and we were stupid to think that it wasn’t always.
Next week in place of this roundup, I’ll have my final Oscar predictions in all 24 categories. It’s been a fun ride writing this column this season. Thanks for sticking with me. Continue reading “Off the Red Carpet: 1 Week to the Oscars”
Hopefully this is the last week that the Oscar race sees a real lull, because ballots are sent to voters this week, so maybe there will be something to talk about then.
“Argo” wins DGA
I wrote in a column just yesterday how ridiculous the discussion over “Argo” is getting, but there’s no denying that the movie looks mighty strong. On Saturday it won the coveted Directors Guild prize, an award that usually predicts the Best Director Oscar winner and consequently Best Picture. Obviously though, Ben Affleck is without a nomination on Oscar night, so I think the uncertainty factor for what will finally happen is more uncertain than most Oscar pundits care to admit. One theory is that the super amount of praise for “Argo” will now turn into backlash as the ballots go out.
“Or you could just give all the pundits bicycles and meet them at the Oscars with Gatorade.”
Now that “Argo” has won the Directors Guild prize, it’s time again to ask the question that every Oscar pundit has been asking for the last two weeks: Is “Argo” more like “Apollo 13” or “Driving Miss Daisy?”
Wait, what?
Oscar pundits have one job, and that’s to make sense of the Oscar race, how the Academy thinks and use statistics combined with unscientific intuition to predict who will actually win.
But this year a curious thing happened in that we actually have a race on our hands. The factors that have led up to where we are now, still three weeks away from the Oscars themselves and even days away from the ballots even being mailed out, have been so numerous and unprecedented that no real front runner has ever really been established.
And because of this, analysts have been wrapping themselves into pretzels desperate to find one. Within minutes of the nominations being announced, I could find you tweets of Sasha Stone claiming this was all sewn up for “Lincoln,” no question. Now just two weeks later, the Oscar race is over yet again with a new contender up front, “Argo.” Continue reading “'Argo' and the pretzel logic of Oscar pundits”
Sorry this is a bit late, but consider it an opportunity for yet another Oscar blogger to wonder whether “Argo” is actually “Apollo 13” or “Driving Miss Daisy.”
Seriously, there’s been a lot of news lately, but people have run out of things to discuss. The entire season has gone so long without an actual frontrunner that now Oscar bloggers are practically inventing reasons to call one. More on that right now.
Ben Affleck accepting his SAG award Sunday night. Image courtesy businessinsider.com
“Argo” wins SAG and PGA
Over the past weekend, “Argo” made a surprise sweep by first winning Best Film from the Producers Guild and then Best Ensemble from the Screen Actors Guild. Keep in mind, this is a movie that only a few weeks ago looked weak by losing a nomination for Ben Affleck for Best Director. Now it’s beaten “Lincoln” in two places where it should’ve had the edge, the PGA because it’s the bigger box office success and the SAG because if “Lincoln” is anything, it’s an actors’ movie, and if “Argo” is anything, it’s not that.
So the narrative that has grown out of this is that “Argo” is modeling the trajectory of “Apollo 13,” the last movie to sweep the PGA, SAG and DGA without having a Best Director nominee in tow. Except I don’t think the comparison makes a whole lot of sense. “Apollo 13” didn’t win the Golden Globe (not that that matters), there were only five Best Picture nominees, not nine, “Lincoln” is hardly “Braveheart,” “Braveheart” won in part because it was one of the first movie to send out screeners to Academy members, and “Argo” hasn’t won the DGA yet anyway. That happens this weekend, so we’ll see.
“Argo” isn’t quite “Driving Miss Daisy” either, the last (and one of three films) to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. “Argo” is a studio genre thriller that celebrates the movies, not a stuffy period drama crowd pleaser that plays on white guilt and stars Dan Ackroyd.
Frankly, I think anyone calling this race for anyone is grossly exaggerating. With such a solid crop of movies, each of them with their own powerful narrative that could drive a victory, and many of them being brought up again in conversation by critics and the public, almost any movie has SOME conceivable chance of winning. For my money, this is still a four horse race, maybe five. “Argo” and “Lincoln” are certainly safer horses to bet on, but none of the others have packed up and gone home. Continue reading “Off the Red Carpet: 3 Weeks till Oscars”
Last year when the Oscar nominations were announced, I couldn’t stop myself from yelling at the TV when “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” got nominated for Best Picture.
This year, there were a lot of snubs and a lot of surprises, but I held my tongue.
That’s because last year, I was more or less certain going in that not only would “The Artist” be nominated, it would probably win. The news was what else would share its spotlight in history, not the actual awards.
2012 is different. I didn’t know for sure what would be nominated, and noting how many predictions I got wrong, I can safely say I still don’t know what might win. In ANY category. We still have a real race on our hands.
No, we didn’t see a real surprise nominee like “Skyfall,” “The Master” or something completely out of left field like “The Intouchables” or “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” to round out a top 10, but you tell me who’s going to win Best Picture.
“Lincoln” got 12 nominations, which is a lot. That’s as many as “Ben-Hur” got. But is the movie so universally loved that it can make a clean sweep? It’s hardly Spielberg’s best movie, even if it is his best in a decade, but some people have viewed it as homework.
I have more questions about “Life of Pi’s” chances. “Life of Pi” got 11 nominations, none of them from acting, but it did get a surprise Adapted Screenplay nod and Best Director nod. “Life of Pi” did well at the box office, but how big was this movie’s Oscar campaign? Not as big as “Silver Linings Playbook,” and certainly not as big as “Lincoln.” This movie is practically under the radar, a movie that was probably in the five or six slot for nomination is now looking like the front runner.
As early as yesterday, I would’ve said “Argo” or “Zero Dark Thirty” would be the front runners to win. “Argo” is the most well-liked movie of the year. Very few people have a bad word to say about it, and just about everyone has seen it, both of which are things that none of the other nominees can claim. “Zero Dark Thirty” has a lot of controversy behind it, but it is by far the critical darling of the year. Now however, neither Ben Affleck nor former winner Kathryn Bigelow have been nominated for Best Director. Movies have won Best Picture without winning Best Director before, but only three times in the 85 year history has a movie won Best Picture without even being nominated, those being in 1927, 1931 and 1989 when “Driving Miss Daisy” had a surprise victory.
“Silver Linings” isn’t that weak either. With Jacki Weaver getting in, it’s the first movie since “Reds” to be nominated in every acting category. That gives it eight nominations, which is nothing to scoff at.
Could “Amour” or “Beasts of the Southern Wild” pull off a surprise win? Michael Haneke was on a short list for possible director nominees, but almost no one had first-timer Benh Zeitlin on their lists. Both movies are riding the waves of having the youngest and oldest Best Actress nominees of all time in Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva.
Even “Django Unchained” doesn’t look too weak. I predicted it would get seven nominations, but it’s got five, and Christoph Waltz taking Leo’s or even Javier Bardem’s spot says something.
That’s already a lot to mull over, but can you honestly make a prediction in any of the other races?
Daniel Day-Lewis seems perfectly plausible to win Best Actor. He’s playing Abraham Lincoln for God sakes. But he would be making history as the only actor to have won three Oscars. Are we prepared to call Daniel Day-Lewis the BEST actor of all time if he wins? Perhaps Joaquin Phoenix is stronger than we think, or maybe “Silver Linings” can ride an acting wave for an Oscar for Bradley Cooper.
Best Actress? Who knows. Jennifer Lawrence is the real movie star of the bunch, but Wallis can light up a room, Jessica Chastain is being called a female powerhouse in “Zero Dark Thirty,” Riva has the support of an older branch who remembers her in French New Wave classics, and Naomi Watts has the British voting block in her largely tearjerker of a movie.
Maybe Robert De Niro will end up being the three time Oscar winner, not Day-Lewis. But consider that everyone else in the Best Supporting category has already won. That’s just unprecedented.
The only conceivable prediction thus far is Anne Hathaway in “Les Miserables.” She steals the show in her three minute song, and there’s no telling that she’s one of the biggest movie stars right now who arguably deserves one. But just how good are Sally Field, Helen Hunt and Amy Adams in their movies? This is not a weak category, as I previously assumed.
No, I’m not quite ready to make any prediction. And that’s a good thing. For years the Academy has been trying desperately to get more people to actually watch the Oscars, be it through trendy hosts, more Best Picture nominees, an earlier schedule and a different presentation format. But now the Oscars have added one element that the show hasn’t had in years: surprise.
Correction: In a previous version, it was incorrectly stated that “Lincoln” received the most nominations of all time, tied with “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “LOTR: The Return of the King.” In actuality, 14 nominations is the record held by “All About Eve” and “Titanic.” The record for most wins is 11.
What an Oscar race it’s been. I simply don’t know what’s going to happen Thursday morning when nominations are finally announced for the Academy Awards on February 24th. It’s because there have been more great movies, less time to see them and even greater shakeups in the form of controversy, voting problems, new rules and a field that simply refuses to reveal a frontrunner.
In my past On the Red Carpet columns, I’ve made predictions each week, and that list has almost never stayed consistent. These then are my final predictions, when all the buzz that’s come and gone doesn’t matter except for right now.
I’d like to think I’ve studied the tea leaves enough that I don’t have to take a shot in the dark, yet I may be as wrong about these nominees as I’ve ever been. And the way this race has been shaking up, I’ll be perfectly all right with that.
Best Picture
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdrom
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Skyfall
Dark Horse: The Master, Amour
If you’re gonna toy with us with the number of nominees, can’t there just be 12? The rules from last year stands in which there will be anywhere from five to 10 nominees, and to be eligible for a nomination, a film must get at least one first place vote.
All of these titles have their passionate supporters, and most are both box office successes and universally admired. With that logic, at least six of these are fairly certain nominees, those being “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Lincoln,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Argo,” “Les Miserables” and “Life of Pi.”
“Django Unchained” is next on the list. At first, pundits were quick to call it dead when the movie simply had not been seen, and I was the confident one. Now that’s reversed because the movie is very loved, but I’m not fully on board. The Academy does love Tarantino however, and as a movie that’s a fun, accessible studio picture and a stylish cinephile movie, it’ll find a lot of love.
Then there’s the question of the “indie spot.” Ever since the expanded Best Picture field, there’s always been room for some Sundance or Fox Searchlight darling, maybe two spaces. So will “Moonrise Kingdom” or “Beasts of the Southern Wild” get in? Will neither? My vote is a daring plea for both. Neither has gotten the critic or guild love it has really needed. SAG snubbed both, but both found room with the Producers Guild, American Film Institute and National Board of Review. Even the Golden Globes had some love for “Moonrise.” What’s more, the narrative behind “Moonrise” is that this is Wes Anderson’s best film, the film in which he grew up without sacrificing his childlike instincts. As for “Beasts,” here’s a film that has gone the distance since Sundance, and Benh Zeitlin and Quvenzhane Wallis have earned Breakthrough awards left and right.
That makes for one last spot, if we really do have 10. Logic serves that if last year could find nine nominees, surely this year can do one better. But what gets it? “The Master” was that early contender, the divisive yet awe-inspiring movie that shared the same narrative as “The Tree of Life.” “Amour” is for the older generation of Academy voters, the love story that haunts and enchants, and one that celebrates two legendary actors of old. “Skyfall” too has a powerful narrative. Not only is it a box office smash, it might just be the best Bond yet. A recent PGA nod and plenty of acting buzz has been important, despite missing all the other guilds. It’s picked up steam where a month ago it would’ve been a wish.
As of very recently, I have the inkling suspicion that the last Best Picture slot will go to “Skyfall.” It will fall in the mainstream action movie slot that in past years belonged to “District 9,” “Inception” and would’ve belonged to “The Dark Knight” in 2008. And what sets it apart is that it’s not just “another Bond movie.” Sam Mendes has given the film institutional clout that every film before it has lacked, and “Skyfall” takes Bond’s story seriously in a way never before attempted. “The Master” did not have the cultural impact “The Tree of Life” did, and in three years of an expanded Best Picture field, we still have not had a legitimate foreign film be nominated (“The Artist” doesn’t count because it’s silent), so why should “Amour” change that?
For 50 years, a Bond movie has not been nominated for Best Picture, probably for good reason, but there is no better time than now for the Academy to mend that injustice to the most durable movie institution of all time.
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington – Flight
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Dark Horse: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master, Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Performances that have been collectively nominated by the Screen Actors Guild, the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards have never failed to get an Oscar nomination. Daniel Day-Lewis, John Hawkes, Bradley Cooper, Denzel Washington and Hugh Jackman have all managed to receive all three.
So where does that leave Joaquin Phoenix? It leaves him out, officially rejected by the institution he bashed earlier this year. His performance is undeniably brilliant, but his surly attitude in this sadly political game will likely cost him the nomination he deserves.
Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Dark Horse: Naomi Watts – The Impossible, Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea, Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain are probably the only two contenders in this category who are a sure thing. “Rust and Bone” and Marion Cotillard have been losing steam. Quvenzhane Wallis has earned every Breakthrough Actress performer in sight, but little else. Naomi Watts has the weight of a nod from SAG, the Globes and the Critics’ Choice, but I attest that she is not the center of “The Impossible.”
That leaves Emmanuelle Riva and Helen Mirren. These are both seasoned veterans, but this is not Mirren’s best work. Riva picked up the coveted LA Film Critics’ prize, the National Film Critics Association award, a second runner up spot with the New York critics and still nabbed a Critics’s Choice nod. And the Academy knows she will not get this chance again.
The only other dark horse is Rachel Weisz. How many Academy voters have actually seen “The Deep Blue Sea?” It’s hard to say, and the NYFCC acclaim feels like ages ago now. Her Golden Globe nomination is the only thing keeping her kicking.
Best Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Javier Bardem – Skyfall
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained, Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
If I am in the camp that “Skyfall” will receive a nomination, then surely Javier Bardem will get one too. He is electric in the role, and the film would not be the same without him. By earning a SAG nomination, he got the boost that the critics would not give him and instead lauded on Matthew McConaughey and Leonardo DiCaprio.
But both Leo and McConaughey are already facing an uphill battle. The vote for “Django” may well be split between former winner Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson. The same can be said about McConaughey, who is likely vying for “Magic Mike,” but then the NYFCC also recognized him for “Bernie.”
This is still a vast field with a lot of contenders, but you can feel very certain about the remaining four.
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Amy Adams – The Master
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Dark Horse: Ann Dowd – Compliance, Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy, Samantha Barks – Les Miserables, Judi Dench – Skyfall
Did I ever say this was a weak field? I don’t know how I could’ve said that if I have literally four dark horse contenders. Sally Field and Anne Hathaway are locks, and Helen Hunt certainly deserves it. If “The Master” is weak, there’s a possibility that so is Amy Adams, but I’m having a hard enough time filling that fifth slot.
Ann Dowd would be the first surprise nominee in a little seen film, as she was nominated by the Critics’ Choice, the Indie Spirits and the NBR. Nicole Kidman would be the other, picking up a SAG and Globe nod, despite her film being almost universally reviled. Samantha Barks is probably as deserving for her minimal screen time in “Les Miz” as Anne Hathaway is, but the vote is bound to be split. Judi Dench has a very important role in “Skyfall,” but I’m not sure the work is as gripping as Bardem’s.
That leaves Maggie Smith, who is adored by the Academy. She has two Oscars and is on a new streak of greatness in “Downton Abbey.” There’s also a small camp of people who want to throw “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” a bone. She’s my fifth.
From left to right, Bradley Cooper, David O’Russell and Jennifer Lawrence. Image courtesy of NY Daily News
Directing
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck – Argo
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Dark Horse: Tom Hooper – Les Miserables, Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master, Michael Haneke – Amour
Save for predicting what the Best Picture nominees would be if there were only five, directors have more of a narrative behind them and their films than anyone else. This year’s crop is ripe with stories.
Spielberg is in for sure. He’s the legendary American director taking on an American legend even greater than he is. Affleck is also in for sure. People feel “The Town” and “Gone Baby Gone” have been underrated, and with “Argo,” Ben Affleck has now been cemented as a serious American filmmaker for a new generation. Not only that, as a director he’s mounted his “comeback” to the A-list. And Bigelow is surely in. Winning Best Director before was previously seen as an accolade long overdue. Now Kathryn Bigelow is a Hollywood woman with a lot of power, and it’s scaring some people.
If logic serves, “Silver Linings and Les Miz” would round out the top five, but my money is on Ang Lee to steal Tom Hooper’s spot, not O. Russell’s. Lee was working on the visionary 3-D landscape in “Life of Pi” long before people had any clue what “Avatar” was. In doing so, he took an “unfilmable” novel on the silver screen, arguably advancing what cinema is capable of. “Les Miz” is well liked, but did Hooper go above and beyond the Broadway musical? The Directors’ Guild just spoke today by snubbing O. Russell and including Hooper, but O. Russell is a big part of that film’s style and dry humor. And you know what? “Silver Linings” is just the better film.
The last two dark horses I have listed are Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Haneke. No one would question that the two are the auteurs behind their respected films, and nominating one of them would be the conciliatory way of overlooking either “The Master” or “Amour” for Best Picture. Terrence Malick got a nomination last year after all.
Best Original Screenplay
Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Amour – Michael Haneke
Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal
Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
The Master – Paul Thomas Anderson
Dark Horse: Looper – Rian Johnson, The Intouchables – Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano, Flight – John Gatins, Seven Psychopaths – Martin McDonagh
The screenplay categories are where the Academy can cover their bases in case something gets snubbed or in case they want to honor something that really doesn’t have a chance elsewhere.
That’s why “Looper” is a very powerful dark horse. It would be Rian Johnson’s first Oscar nomination, but he’s got some stiff competition from PTA, who the Academy may not respect as a director, but certainly do as a writer. “The Master” would be his fourth screenplay nomination.
The same can also be said for “The Intouchables,” “Flight” and “Seven Psychopaths,” which is specifically about the writing process.
Confusing the whole issue is the Writers’ Guild. If “Amour” and “Django” were eligible for that prize, they’d far and away be seen as strong contenders and not underdogs.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo – Chris Terrio
Lincoln – Tony Kushner, John Logan, Paul Webb
Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell
Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeithlin
The Perks of Being a Wallflower – Stephen Chbosky
Dark Horse: Les Miserables – William Nicholson, The Sessions – Ben Lewin, Life of Pi – David Magee
I said in my previous column that “Life of Pi” is not remembered for it’s dialogue, and it’s that very reason why I think it’ll be overlooked in place of the slightly more poetic “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” a film that captures the beauty of the world and the rugged dialect of the bayou.
My fifth pick then is “The Perks of Being a Wallflower.” Remember when “Precious” won because it had “based on the novel by Sapphire” in the title? Well what do you think The Academy thinks about an author adapting and directing his own cult novel? “Perks” has performed very well with the critics groups and even got a WGA nod. It’s got a much better shot than something like “Les Miz,” a story pretty faithfully adapted from a play. Such devotion prevented the nominations of “Rabbit Hole” and “Carnage” in previous years.
Additional Categories
Below the jump I look at the technical categories in the race, which I’m not fully equipped to predict, but play ball with me here. Maybe I’ll have a good prediction streak.
If all serves from these tech categories, here’s my overall count for Oscar nominations per film.
We’re at the point where there’s going to be a big movie opening every week until the end of the year now, so get excited.
“Skyfall” has biggest Bond opening ever
“Skyfall” earned $86.7 million at the Box Office this weekend, sending it on its way to trounce even the inflation added record of the fourth Bond, “Thunderball.” It’s popular appeal as well as its just plain awesome quality has lead some to speculate the possibility of nominating Judi Dench, Javier Bardem and Roger Deakins for their respected Oscars, as well as a push for the movie itself for Best Picture. It’s a long shot, but I would be on board.
Best Animated Short shortlist revealed
Could we soon be saying, Oscar Winner Maggie Simpson? The shortlist for the Best Animated Short category was revealed last week, and it includes “The Simpsons” short “The Longest Daycare” and the lovey Disney short “Paperman.” The Pixar short film this year that screened before “Brave,” “La Luna,” was nominated and lost last year. But I can guarantee you now that the little underdog movie no one’s heard of and no one will see will almost definitely win this category. Here’s the full list: (via In Contention)
“Adam and Dog”
“Combustible”
“Dripped”
“The Eagleman Stag”
“The Fall of the House of Usher”
“Fresh Guacamole”
“Head over Heels”
“Maggie Simpson in ‘The Longest Daycare'”
“Paperman”
“Tram”
Christoph Waltz in Best Actor race
I said last week that for some reason people already want to count “Django Unchained” out of the race before anyone’s even seen it. Why no one would consider Christoph Waltz owning “Django” just like he did “Inglourious Basterds” is beyond me, but the difference this year is that he’s being pushed for the Lead Actor race now rather than supporting. Yes, it’s a crowded field, but he was just that good before, and I don’t see why he can’t be again. This also means that Leonardo DiCaprio and even Samuel L. Jackson are people to keep an eye on in the Supporting race. (via In Contention)
Image Credit: The Hollywood Reporter
The Hollywood Reporter Airs Annual Actor Roundtable
Each year The Hollywood Reporter puts together an extended interview roundtable with a collection of actors, usually Oscar hopefuls for that year. Last year they interviewed George Clooney, Viola Davis, Christopher Plummer, Charlize Theron and Michael Fassbender, and this year they’ve interviewed Jamie Foxx, Matt Damon, Denzel Washington, Richard Gere, Alan Arkin and John Hawkes. All six are potential Oscar candidates for acting, three more likely than the others, but their discussion veered much more intellectual. They talked acting on stage, what they would do if they couldn’t act, family and whom they admired. It’s a stirring hour-long discussion between smart actors being very candid in a setting you won’t see anywhere else. (via The Hollywood Reporter)
Gurus ‘O Gold released
The Gurus ‘O Gold have been my go to barometer for Oscar predictions for the last few years. Collectively, they are probably better at anticipating the awards and forecasting changes than any one of them individually. This is their first time forecasting the major categories this year since Toronto. Things are bound to change as a few other movies set in and are seen by the public, but the universal consensus right now is unsurprisingly “Argo,” followed closely by TIFF winner “Silver Linings Playbook.” The surprise I see in the list is the inclusion of “Flight” in 10 spot and “Moonrise Kingdom” on the outs. 10 is probably a generous number for nominees anyway. Take a look at the full list if you’re like me and love charts and spreadsheets and stuff, and avoid it if you think it has the potential to suck all the fun out of the Oscars. (via Movie City News)
Will Best Picture match Screenplay?
A blogger at “Variety” observed that last year was a surprising anomaly in the trend for nominees for Best Picture and Best Original or Adapted Screenplay. The movie with the BP nod always gets the screenplay nod, with historically very few exceptions. Last year alone matched the last 10 years in terms of gaps between the two categories, and it’s worth noting that this year may go the same. “Moonrise Kingdom,” “The Master,” “Amour,” “Django Unchained,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and “The Sessions” are all questionable nominees for Best Picture, and that’s just listing the front runners in the screenplay races. (via Variety)
Ben Affleck to receive “Modern Master Award”
For a guy gunning for an Oscar for Best Director with a film set in the ‘70s, it’s got to feel good to win an award called the “Modern Master Award” at the Santa Barbara International Film Festival. Ben Affleck will receive the award on January 26, conveniently not long before the Oscar ceremony itself. (via The Race)
I took a week off last week, despite there being at least one piece of gigantic movie news, perhaps not Oscar relevant, but enough to make nerds on Twitter (myself included) flip out for better or worse.
But with the election now firmly behind us, I can focus on a race with just one president running (“Lincoln”).
President Obama defeats Mitt Romney in Presidential Election
Hey! Guess what? Now funding for “Sesame Street” and PBS won’t be cut and young kids will still like the movies and art for future generations!
Disney buys Lucasfilm for $4 billion, plans to make “Star Wars Episode VII”
“Star Wars” is now coming back in 2015, and I couldn’t be more disappointed. Even if “Star Wars” has become something of a joke since the prequels and having the “Star Wars” name on your product in fact makes it worse, the “Star Wars” series, with George Lucas’s muddy fingers and all, had become bad but never boring.
For Disney, who also owns Marvel, to plan to release “Star Wars VII” in the same year as “The Avengers 2,” is to make it into another tentpole blockbuster and popcorn movie that will be instantly forgotten as soon as people walk out of the theater.
Rumors are now spilling in that Matthew Vaughn (“Kick-Ass,” “X-Men: First Class”) is in talks to direct, Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill and Carrie Fischer are all interested in reprising their roles, and George Lucas is supposed to still be a “consultant,” whatever that means. These are telltale signs that this is not going to be an interesting film that takes the franchise in a new direction but one that is sheer fanboy baiting. (via Collider)
21 films eligible for Best Animated Feature
The number of animated movies considered eligible each year for the Best Animated Feature Oscar dictates the number of nominees the category will have, three or five, and five will definitely be the winning number this year based on 21 films meeting the Academy’s requirements. This says to me that Disney could very well have three potential nominees this year with “Brave,” “Wreck-It Ralph” and “Frankenweenie.” Expect buzz for “Rise of the Guardians” and one of the Gkids (“The Secret of Kells,” “Chico and Rita”) distributed entries. (Full list via In Contention)
Box office numbers bode well for “Wreck-It Ralph,” “Flight,” “Argo”
In a big surprise, Disney’s “Wreck-It Ralph” trounced the weekly competition by raking in nearly $50 million on its opening weekend, double that of Robert Zemeckis’s “Flight,” a number that’s really nothing to scoff at. “Argo” also performed well in its third week by making $10 million, proving that this is a movie generating money by word of mouth that has the legs to go all the way to a Best Picture prize. Doing less well was “Cloud Atlas,” which in two weeks has only brought in $18 million of its over $100 million budget. (via Box Office Mojo)
“Hitchcock” premieres at AFI Film Fest
Film buffs are eagerly awaiting the movie “Hitchcock,” for obvious reasons, and early reviews of the movie say that although Anthony Hopkins and Helen Mirren provide their characters with range and depth, first time feature director Sacha Gervasi’s film is a lightweight entry that feels clunky at times and goes against the grain of what people actually know about Hitch. They also now have HBO’s “The Girl” to compare it against, which likewise received poor reviews by painting Hitchcock as little more than a peeping tom.
European Film Awards and British Independent Film Awards announce nominees
“Amour,” “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,” “The Intouchables,” and “The Imposter” are all among the nominees in two of Europe’s smaller award races, the European Film Awards and the British Independent Film Awards. The former nominated films that won’t get an American distribution this year and the latter nominated films that got American distribution last year. See the full lists here and here. (via In Contention)
Week 4 Predictions Chart
This week I’m adding in some preliminary Screenplay predictions since the rest of the field is unchanged in my mind.
