“12 Years a Slave” will win Best Picture, along with three other Oscars.
The Oscars are here, although maybe not soon enough. A report recently said that two thirds of Americans have not seen any of the Best Picture winners yet. That to me doesn’t add up for a movie like “Gravity” that made as much money as it did, but the point is that this awards season, while interesting, has just gone on too long. A New York Times article wondered if the average individual is generally apathetic to the whole institution of the Oscars.
I hope that isn’t true, but it’s starting to feel that way when the debate over “12 Years a Slave” versus “American Hustle” has long since past, when we’ve heard the story about Jonah Hill getting paid as little as SAG would allow to work for Martin Scorsese over and over again, and when even “Let it Go” parodies are getting old.
Anyway, here are my final predictions. You may find there’s more consensus and predictability than you’d think.
Best Picture
Months ago I wrote an article bluntly titled “Gravity Will NOT Win Best Picture… Probably.” It was smart of me to add on that last word, because the good news is that “Gravity,” my favorite film of the year, is still here. It is still as much of a favorite to win now as it was back when it premiered at Toronto, despite all the things I said about it technically having come true.
But in the case of “Gravity,” the nitpickers have beaten the dollars, and a more “worthy” title, one that isn’t seen as just “a ride” or a movie with a “bad script” will have to take its place. That film will be “12 Years a Slave,” as many predicted long ago that it was invincible. It has now survived with wins at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes as the one to beat, and yet its tie in the Producers Guild Awards with “Gravity” confirms just how close this race is.
“American Hustle” may not be the last minute favorite after all, and it’s a shame for David O. Russell, who would now be 0-3 in a row on his current hot streak. The third time is not the charm, it seems, but I’m betting he’ll strike again, whereas Alfonso Cuaron and Steve McQueen may never make another Oscar friendly movie. The reason I feel it can’t win, and why some are predicting it might not win anything, is, what exactly is the narrative behind this movie winning? It’s a throwback, but not quite. It’s a crowd pleaser, but not entirely. It’s madcap fun, brilliant and original, but some would argue even that’s not all true.
“Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” each have their supporters who would say otherwise about all of the above, and a win for them will mean something special.
Who all will be nominated for the 2014 Oscars on January 16.
The day has come. Everyone’s had their say, and the Oscar nominations are only days away. In one corner we have strong consensus on some absolute great movies, movies that could sit on any year’s Best Picture list and be stronger contenders than they are here. And in the other corner you have controversy, bitching, stewing and whining that maybe just about all of these are overrated to some degree. I mean, we knew “Spring Breakers” wasn’t about to be nominated, but does the Academy really think there are 10 better movies this year than “Before Midnight”?
It’s easy to get exhausted by all the bickering, but then that’s criticism, and that’s the Oscar race. It isn’t every year that we get three, maybe four plausible winners in such a vast field.
I tend to enjoy Oscar nomination morning even more so than Oscar night itself. There are more chances for surprise, for curveballs, snubs and the opportunity to pick the winner. Maybe not everyone is aware that Cate Blanchett’s Oscar win this year will be a foregone conclusion (watch me eat those words), but there’s a lot less certainty when it’s so close to being over.
This year my predictions have gone back and forth, but not as much as you might think. Movies like “Rush,” “August: Osage County” and “Fruitvale Station” have been pushed to the margins as the months have passed, and “Her” and “American Hustle” have emerged as more than gems. But this crop of films that we started with back in October has stayed mostly constant because all of them have been as good, if not better than expected. No amount of prognosticating, statistics and snubs can take all that away.
Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
American Hustle
Her
Captain Phillips
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
Nebraska
Inside Llewyn Davis
This remains a race between “12 Years a Slave,” “Gravity,” “American Hustle” and to a lesser degree “Her,” and it’s most exciting to know that not one is the runaway favorite. “12 Years” may be in the lead, but “American Hustle” pulled the hat trick of being recognized by all three guilds, the DGA, PGA and WGA.
“Captain Phillips” and “Saving Mr. Banks” seem like safe fifth and sixth bets, both studio films but one with an edgy action pulse and the other a family friendly affair full of Old Hollywood nostalgia.
A bigger question mark however hangs over “The Wolf of Wall Street,” the most controversial of all the contenders, and “Inside Llewyn Davis,” which has been hit or miss. Opposite “American Hustle,” it pulled the hat trick of being snubbed by all three guilds, and yet it swept the National Society of Film Critics’ Awards.
The reason I feel both are getting in is the little movie no one is talking about, “Nebraska.” This movie has quietly remained in the hunt despite only mild notices for its actors. Alexander Payne missed with the DGA, and no critics have really come to bat for it. But is there a fear that it can’t scrape together a measly 300 1st place votes? Both “Inside Llewyn Davis” and “Wolf” have that kind of love, despite the hate, and this will be a nine horse race for the third year running. Continue reading “2014 Oscars Final Predictions”
The movies are no longer the pinnacle of pop culture. How do we make them matter again?
When “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” came out in November, it accomplished something no other movie in 2013 has: it made an impact.
Prior to its release, I saw genuine excitement in my friends and in my social media feeds. Jennifer Lawrence began appearing on just about every late night talk show and proceeded to be generally awesome and meme worthy.
When it finally did come out, lo and behold, it was really good – better than the original by far and fully matching the hype. It even made more money than the original and set records for the November box office. Critics discussed it like it was important, and people talked about and saw it multiple times like it mattered. And it does matter.
Each year a few moments in popular culture seem to define the entire year. They set the world on fire for moments at a time and anyone who’s anyone knows about it and is talking about it.
Pinning down just how they define the year is a bit more intangible, and it’s up to the media to write year-end lists, columns and mashups that weave our culture together when box office receipts and viewership numbers don’t paint the whole picture.
2013 has been an exciting year, as are most years when we look back each December. This year gave us the finale to “Breaking Bad,” one that garnered as many parodies as it did live viewers. It gave us the hilarious and even groundbreaking antics of Kanye West and Miley Cyrus. “Homeland,” “The Walking Dead” and “Dexter” made waves with polarizing new seasons. Arcade Fire and Daft Punk turned heads with critically acclaimed smash hits and tour and marketing choices that were talked about as much as the music. “Grand Theft Auto V” and “Call of Duty: Ghosts” were blockbuster video games that made “Thor” look like an independent film. Jimmy Kimmel pranked the Internet. We learned what the Fox says.
And a few movies came out too.
In terms of quality alone, 2013 turned out to be a pretty great year for movies. You can read my Top 15 list here. Many were moving, original and game changers, and some felt like they could be all time classics.
And for the most part, these movies made money, they got good reviews, and they’ll be here to stay through Oscar season and beyond. People continue to see them, buy them, stream them, steal them, whatever.
But increasingly, they matter less.
No longer is film the pinnacle of pop culture. TV offers more opportunities for experimentation and narrative complexity, music continues to pose discussions about race, femininity and more beyond the music itself, video games demonstrate the greatest chance for growth as a blossoming art form, and all three continue to be infinitely accessible and open to critical discourse.
Film on the other hand can seem to be more selective, more homogenized and harder to access. Filmmakers like Steven Soderbergh and others are jumping ship to TV, the mass marketed movies are losing their zest, the important and groundbreaking films are not available nationwide or in the Netflix canon, and film’s innovations to the medium, namely digital and 3D cinematography, look gimmicky and defensive at worst.
No one is dismissing the work of great artists because there is other entertainment to be found elsewhere, but when everything is to some degree competing for attention, the ability to discuss films and share them widely is waning.
Championing a year in cinema and the stories only it can tell
The major theme across the intros to most of this year’s Best Film lists has been that the movies matter. Critics have championed the movies that could only be movies, ones that feel cinematic not because they’re big but because they can be small, because they can avoid “complex narrative” as championed by TV and use imagery and style above all to conveya different sort of complexity.
“The ever-increasing prominence of television is, in turn, sparking a renewed reflection on the part of filmmakers about what cinema is, and what it can be. The conflict between the dependent image and the essential image, between the transparent and the conspicuous, is real and serious…The best movies this year are films of combative cinema, audacious inventions in vision. The specificity and originality of their moment-to-moment creation of images offers new ways for viewers to confront the notion of what “narrative” might be.”
“It is easy to conclude that movies have surrendered that long-held vanguard position. The creative flowering of television has exposed the complacency and conservatism that rules big-money filmmaking at the studio level… But within this landscape of bloat and desolation, there is quite a lot worth caring about. More important, there are filmmakers determined to refine and reinvigorate the medium, to recapture its newness and uniqueness and to figure out, in a post-film, platform-agnostic, digital-everything era, what the art of cinema might be.”
They seem to say in blunter terms, “Yeah, TV’s good, but fuck that.”
This is cinema. You can hurl around “golden age of TV” all you want, but I can’t imagine any of these stories, some of them with minimal plot, some with no discernable plot at all, being transplanted to TV.
That doesn’t mean they aren’t deeply moving works of art, experiences with beginnings, middles and ends that carry emotions, characters and visceral sensations through their durations.
These are the things you can’t find anywhere else. I don’t know if the movies are blooming or dying (the consensus seems to be both), but they continue to be groundbreaking and frankly amazing.
I’m aware there’s five seasons of “Breaking Bad” on Netflix, but these 25 movies, 15 ranked, eight unranked and two Honorable Mentions, are the stuff that will blow your mind if you gave it the time of day.
2014 Oscar Predictions near the end of the year and just before critics groups weigh in.
A month after my first batch of Oscar predictions, my sentiments about this season are summed up in this paragraph from just one of Mark Harris’s brilliant Oscar posts on Grantland:
In September, I got some ribbing from colleagues for saying it was too early to make predictions. I hope I don’t cause any of them to have an aneurysm by ever so gently saying it again two months later. At the very least, can we stipulate that Variety‘s pronouncementthat 2013 offers “more terrific awards possibilities than ever” feels slightly out of sync with the fare at your local multiplex, which is playing Free Birds, Last Vegas, Ender’s Game, and Bad Grandpa?
Right now I can go out and recommend a half dozen great movies that are playing in places outside New York and L.A.. But the disconnect between “Oscar talk and real-world moviegoers,” as Harris also mentions, is built not just on hyperbole. As Oscar world has hit its lull between the time when “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” come out, pundits have grown tired discussing “12 Years a Slave,” “Gravity” and “Captain Phillips” right as these movies need it most.
Movies like “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “Nebraska” and “All is Lost” are encountering the same problem because everyone who matters saw these movies MONTHS ago at Cannes. I mean honestly, who hasn’t seen “Inside Llewyn Davis” yet? Oh, everyone.
My latest set of predictions doesn’t have much in ways of changes, and that’s more of the reason why it’s easy to become bored of all this. But I was able to see a few more films like “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Blue is the Warmest Color” and “All is Lost” to confirm what the pundits already knew or suspected.
Now in just a few days, the critics will weigh in and nominations from the Indie Spirits and Golden Globes will begin rolling in and dictating the shape of the season all over again. Until then, here’s going with the flow:
* Designates a movie I’ve seen
Bulleted entries are Dark Horse candidates ranked in likelihood of getting in
Best Picture
Inside Llewyn Davis – CBS Films
Gravity*
12 Years a Slave*
Captain Phillips*
Saving Mr. Banks
Inside Llewyn Davis*
Nebraska*
August: Osage County*
Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
The Wolf of Wall Street
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club*
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Philomena*
All is Lost*
Blue Jasmine*
Before Midnight*
Her
Rush*
Fruitvale Station*
A month ago I worried that “Inside Llewyn Davis” might be ignored by the Academy, a slight Coen entry that would be overlooked by big Oscar bait like “12 Years,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “The Butler” and “August: Osage County.” Now before the critics have even had their say, “Inside Llewyn Davis” is riding a small wave of anticipation as “August” and “The Butler” buckle under the weight of their casts and their reviews. It seems like a lock compared to the question marks that are “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.”
The other strong entry of course is “Nebraska,” which I feared would have the same fate. That film however, also a Cannes entry, has now reminded everyone that it is a genuine crowd pleaser that will scratch just the right itch in this Academy demographic.
Unfortunately for “All is Lost,” “Blue Jasmine,” “Before Midnight” or “Her,” those two movies in my mind take up the “indie” spots that the Academy now reserves. And if any were to bump out “The Butler” or “August” it would be “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Philomena” or a real Academy shocker in “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty,” movies that are more Oscar friendly and could use the help.
“12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity” weigh heavily in an Oscar season loaded with buzz and hyperbole.
Last year I got absolutely embroiled in the Oscar race. Such is the case when you have inordinate amounts of time on your hands. I wrote weekly round up columns of all the news and shake-ups in the race, and it was a blast.
This year, contenders have come and gone, with some setting the world on fire (“Gravity”, “12 Years a Slave”), some fizzling out fast (“The Fifth Estate”, “The Counselor”) and others getting pushed to 2014 and out of the race all together (“The Monuments Men”, “Foxcatcher”).
But whereas last year was remarkably unpredictable, this year’s race started early and shows little sign of relenting. The media quickly took over and has aimed to influence the outcome in anyway they can.
Why am I even bothering then to enter my voice into the fray? I chimed in with a controversial piece on why “Gravity” won’t win Best Picture just the other day, and I may yet change my mind, but I was originally going to resume my column and do so as a video.
Now to do so seems futile, and if I’m going to make picks at all, I’d like for them to add something to the conversation. I’d like for them to be pieces that involve me actually having seen the movies in question and not just responding to the media buzz. Hopefully I can call bullshit when need be too.
The smarter pundits out there do no different, and they’ve already been more than critical of the hyperbole that in late October has already made this race exhausting.
I’ll at least make clear now these articles will be less frequent. I can’t promise that they’ll be vastly different than what you might read anywhere else, but they’ll serve as sanity checks in an awards circuit run wild.
* Designates a movie I’ve seen
Bulleted entries are Dark Horse candidates ranked in likelihood of getting in
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave*
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
Josh Brolin – Labor Day
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Daniel Bruhl – Rush*
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips*
Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners*
John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis*
Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
David Oyelowo – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
Andrew Dice Clay – Blue Jasmine*
Matthew McConaughey – Mud*
Geoffrey Rush – The Book Thief
James Franco – Spring Breakers*
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
So the first thing you’re wondering is, why is James Franco so low? After having just revisited “Spring Breakers,” Franco’s reptilian, corn-rowed, drug addled performance is something special. It’s dark and twisted but as much vulnerable and affecting as it is iconic and outrageous. Distributor A24 is taking his campaign somewhat seriously, as they’ve put out two “Consider This Shit” ads. Sadly, honoring a performance like that is simply not how the Academy works.
But to look at the field more practically, Tom Hanks is being argued by some as capable of winning a third Oscar. He seems to also be a lock for Lead Actor, but this is the one where he puts on his classic charm and shows why he’s a real movie star, but a likable one too. Having seen Michael Fassbender’s work in “12 Years a Slave,” it’s monumental. Physical, animalistic, and yet also sickly compassionate and reserved. He won’t be ignored like he was for Steve McQueen’s last film “Shame.” Whether or not the Academy will recognize another villainous turn in this role is another question. Jared Leto has earned a lot of buzz for his cross dressing role in “Dallas Buyers Club,” so he seems likely and could steal a win if the movie is liked enough.
More pundits however are arguing for Daniel Bruhl in “Rush.” To me the performance strikes me as mostly one-dimensional, a calculated job for which Bruhl may very quickly be typecast. Barkhad Abdi seems most likely to be the most worthy snub from a not quite stacked bunch, but a good group of nominees when I think how much I’d love to see Matthew McConaughey, Andrew Dice Clay, John Goodman or Jake Gyllenhaal all break into the mix.
Best Supporting Actress
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station*
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave*
June Squibb – Nebraska*
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County*
Margo Martindale – August: Osage County*
Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave*
Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine*
Amy Adams – Her
Kristen Wiig – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Naomie Harris – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Scarlett Johansson – Her
The supporting actress category is especially strong this year, and it’s amazing to me to see three African American actresses as near locks for this category. Oprah has star power on her side for this nomination, but she’s more than serviceable in “The Butler.” It’s a nuanced performance that never goes overboard. Octavia Spencer may be the only nomination “Fruitvale Station” gets this year. June Squibb is outrageous in “Nebraska,” and she has more than a few show-stopping moments that could win her an Oscar. But my money is on Lupita Nyong’o, a remarkably brave performance among many in “12 Years a Slave,” but she holds her own against titans of cinema.
The reason however I’ve included Jennifer Lawrence in my fifth spot is because I am beyond confused about “August: Osage County’s” role in this race. It was originally rumored that Meryl Streep might be campaigned for Supporting Actress, as the movie is really Julia Roberts’ story. Now where Julia will be campaigned seems uncertain. It might mean bad news for Margo Martindale splitting the vote and coming up short.
Also an interesting footnote is Scarlett Johansson’s bid for “Her.” Keep in mind that Johansson does only voice work for the role, and although it’s a long shot, a nomination would be the first time voice acting alone managed to land an Oscar nod. Also, go Sally Hawkins! Easily the most underrated part of “Blue Jasmine.”
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine*
Sandra Bullock – Gravity*
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County*
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
Judi Dench – Philomena*
Kate Winslet – Labor Day
Amy Adams – American Hustle
Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue is the Warmest Color
Julie Delpy – Before Midnight*
Berenice Bejo – The Past
Perhaps more than any race, Best Actress is especially tight. Months ago this seemed to be Blanchett’s Oscar to lose. Now all five candidates stand to be former winners, with Kate Winslet or Judi Dench acting as the fifth spot contenders, and anyone could give them a run for their money. Blanchett, with the help of Woody Allen and his reputation for championing women to Oscar wins, delivers a convincingly dignified nervous breakdown. Sandra Bullock shows depth and naturalism under the worst of acting conditions. And Streep chews as much scenery as you may have imagined. Streep’s spitfire performance is a thousand times better than her work in “The Iron Lady,” one that has as much pathos and depth as it does firecrackers, so I’m finding it hard to say she couldn’t win a FOURTH Oscar.
If there’s a reason I don’t like Dench in the fifth spot, it’s because Philomena Lee is an awkward character that Dench doing what she does best doesn’t fully earn. Just how big is Amy Adams’s role in “American Hustle” is a looming question mark, but on the outskirts are Exarchopoulos, coming off a big controversy with her director and film, and Delpy, who needs to strike while the iron is hot if she is to convince the Academy that her Celine is a character 18 years in the making.
Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave*
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips*
Robert Redford – All is Lost
Bruce Dern – Nebraska*
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyer’s Club
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis*
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Christian Bale – American Hustle
Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
Joaquin Phoenix – Her
Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station*
Best Actor always seems to be a packed race, so it smacks of hyperbole to say that this year is more or less so than in years past. But what is unique about this year is that given this deep field in which more than a few worthy candidates will be left out, there does not seem to be a notable frontrunner.
Ejiofor will earn his spot because his movie more than anything validates it. It’s a magnificently brave performance with any number of stunning displays of talent to point to as evidence. Hanks, Redford, Dern and McConaughey however have more of the buzz. While McConaughey’s time is due, Hanks, Dern and Redford have all used their performances as something of comebacks, proof to the Academy and the world that they are deserving of the titles of some of America’s great actors.
And yet who is the most vulnerable in such a category when there are so many other possibilities? Hanks could be out if he’s the front-runner for Supporting. Dern may be too modest and simple in Alexander Payne’s lightweight (but brilliant) film. And it may NOT be McConaughey’s time. Maybe it’s Leo’s time, or Joaquin Phoenix’s time, who shows a sentimental side in “Her” the Academy didn’t know he had. Oscar Isaac is as deserving as all these actors, but his deeply lived in, realistic performance is made to feel unlikeable, not in the juicy, good way, and it may hurt him.
Best Director
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave*
Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity*
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips*
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Joel and Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis*
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
Spike Jonze – Her
Alexander Payne – Nebraska*
J.C. Chandor – All is Lost
John Lee Hancock – Saving Mr. Banks
Denis Villeneuve – Prisoners*
Best Director, as evidenced by every year except last one, is a good barometer for the Best Picture front runners and vice versa. So it seems as though McQueen and Cuaron are sure-fire locks. Not only are their films magnificent, there’s no question that their vision is integral to their success.
Greengrass helms the next big frontrunner, and this movie is directly up his alley. “Saving Mr. Banks” is the fourth biggest contender, but John Lee Hancock will not be the face or name people remember after seeing that film.
So that leaves O. Russell to clean up a “third time’s a charm” nomination, and the fifth will be a surprise. Scorsese has been snubbed here before, but Chandor and Villeneuve could be compelling dark horses if their movies don’t make the final Best Picture cut.
Best Picture
Gravity*
12 Years a Slave*
Captain Phillips*
Saving Mr. Banks
American Hustle
August: Osage County*
Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
The Wolf of Wall Street
Inside Llewyn Davis*
10. Rush*
Nebraska*
All is Lost
Blue Jasmine*
Before Midnight*
Her
Dallas Buyers Club
Whew. That’s quite a field. I can speak with certainty to the top three at the very least. In fact, this is a two, if not one horse race as far as many are concerned.
“Saving Mr. Banks” is currently very strong after its very first premiere, so it seems next likely. “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” will have a lot of hype to live up to, and if they fail, then this could be a very different field. Otherwise, they seem to be confident contenders. “August: Osage County” will soon look very strong, and “The Butler” is looking increasingly weak, but each have big casts and Academy friendly ambitions, and it’d be tough to bet against them too.
What’s left are two spots, one I’ve reserved for the “indie” spot and the other for the “populist, sports movie” spot. Unfortunately there’s only one film that meets the latter criteria, and that’s the mediocre “Rush.” In the other category, just about a half dozen things could fill that single void, and currently “All is Lost” looks the strongest. My money will be on “Inside Llewyn Davis” to nab that indie spot, but it will depend on which movies critics and guilds come back for at the end of the year and how some of these movies perform with the public.
Some reasons why “Gravity” stands a tough shot at winning the Oscar for Best Picture.
“Gravity” may just be the finest movie of 2013. It’s a game-changer, as cliché as it is to say that, and there’s only one other film so far this year that may yet go down as an all-time Hollywood classic.
But it will not win the Oscar for Best Picture.
This may just be a controversial, trolling argument fanning the flame that is the media hype surrounding this year’s barely begun Oscar race (and even as I write this I’m a bit hesitant to say its chances are already over, especially when people already disagree with me), but ask any pundit, and they’ll tell you that the front runner status is not a desirable one to have this early in the game.
What happens is this: there’s a “spin” machine that goes into action, hurling negative press at the wall until something sticks. Before long a “narrative” forms that can overcome quality, dollars or buzz.
“The Hurt Locker” and “The Artist” each survived attacks of plagiarism, but when time passed and reactions settled, movies that were first hailed as generation defining masterpieces like “The Social Network” and “Up in the Air” lost steam fast when people decided they were just “pretty good.”
“12 Years a Slave” may be the “official” front-runner, it also being debuted at the Toronto Film Festival and being the only film to get an article as hyperbolic as this, but the public has drawn first blood on “Gravity” with three straight weeks as the number one box office draw, and the arguments hurled against “Gravity” may outweigh those for Steve McQueen’s film. Here’s what it’s up against over the next few months: Continue reading “Gravity will NOT Win Best Picture… Probably”
“Gravity” is a jaw-dropping sci-fi that rewrites the rules of cinema.
For all of the innovative, jaw-dropping, never before seen CGI wonder in Alfonso Cuaron’s “Gravity,” the impossibly balletic movement of Emmanuel Lubezki’s camera and the impeccably seamless 3-D effects, one of the film’s most impressive and memorable things is something Cuaron has withheld.
In space, there is nothing to carry sound. Satellites collide and rupture into millions of pieces, jetpacks soar and glide through the stars and astronauts dangle from floating space stations, clinging with their last ounce of strength to avoid floating into the distance, and nothing is to be heard.
Although the swell of an orchestra will remind you this is a Hollywood film, “Gravity” shatters the mold of what it is to be epic. Today’s tentpole movies are all noise and bombast; the multi-million dollar visual effects are par for the course. Unlike “Avatar,” “Life of Pi” and “Hugo” before it, 3-D and CGI are not here to enhance. Working through technology that needed to be invented, Cuaron has invented something breathtakingly original.
His focus on sights, not sound, story nor style, has nearly taken cinema back to its silent day roots and helped to imagine a future vision for what cinema can be. Continue reading “Gravity”
Here’s hoping Fall 2013 is a lot better than the summer.
This summer movie season was so ho-hum that the films that were so hyped mere months ago will fade into oblivion as soon as September gets going. Yes, gems like “Frances Ha” and “The Spectacular Now” may be revived by critics come Top Ten list time, but as a stacked fall continues to impress, movies like “Blue Jasmine,” “Before Midnight” and “Fruitvale Station” seem less certain to make appearances come Oscar night.
As I’ve done in seasons past, I’ve made clever groupings for the huge batch of films coming our way, and since my excitement ranges from pretty solid to thrilled for most of them, they’re now grouped by “type” instead.
Keep in mind that some of these movies will have tentative release dates, some have not yet picked up a date or distribution in America, some will only get extremely limited Oscar qualifying runs at the end of the year, and some might not end up coming out this year at all.
Destined for Awesomeness
Gravity – October 4
Not all films can be described as jaw-droppingly good looking by a trailer alone, but the fascinating POV, 3-D effects in Alfonso Cuaron’s “Gravity” certainly can. Will the narrative be sustaining enough with just Sandra Bullock floating through space? Early reviews say hell yes.
Captain Phillips – October 11
“Green Zone” was too much Bourne in Iraq, so it’s refreshing to see Paul Greengrass take on another real-event inspired story with a new actor. Tom Hanks could earn an Oscar nod for his hybrid action star turn.
12 Years a Slave – October 18
Last year Leo played the Southern slave owner, and this year Michael Fassbender gets that juicy role. Just about anything would be more Oscar friendly than “Shame,” but Steve McQueen should bring some much needed darkness to this story.
The Wolf of Wall Street – November 15
The trailer that produced the most mesmerizing gif of the year looks no less enticing. Scored to Kanye’s “Black Skinheads,” Scorsese’s Leo-led drama with Matthew McConaughey and Jonah Hill looks to be a mad romp set to cap a year full of “have-more” movies.
Inside Llewyn Davis – December 6
Though considered a more modest Coen Brothers film, Oscar Isaac and “Inside Llewyn Davis” took Cannes by storm with its ‘60s folk rock charm. I hope to see it as the closing night film in the Chicago International Film Festival.
American Hustle – December 13
Oscar pundits are saying third time’s a charm for David O. Russell, who is reuniting his casts from “The Fighter” and “Silver Linings Playbook” (and throwing in Louis C.K. for good measure) for a con artist drama. If you thought the hair styles looked silly in “Argo,” wait till you see this.
Her – December 20
Spike Jonze’s return to feature length films since 2009’s “Where the Wild Things Are” features Joaquin Phoenix in a rare sympathetic and vulnerable role in which he’s falling in love with his Siri-esque computer voiced by Scarlett Johansson. It looks lovely.
The Wind Rises – N/A
New Miyazaki movie? Yes please! This story about a Japanese fighter plane designer during World War II reminds of the early Studio Ghibli film “Grave of the Fireflies” and looks to be Miyazaki’s most adult movie yet. Continue reading “Fall Movie Preview 2013”
You should know that I don’t really consider the year over until all four and half hours of the Oscars have aired, so I have no reason to do a 2013 movie preview just yet. There are more than enough blogs with lists that’ll tell you there’s a new “Star Trek” movie coming out or that there are a half dozen superhero sequels and reboots set to clog up the summer.
Frankly I’m more interested in the movies that absolutely no one’s heard of yet, but suffice it to say there are a few already that have piqued my interest. So these are just the movie guy movies that don’t have established fan bases nor require plot speculation. I can be comprehensive next season.
Inside Llewyn Davis – Coen Brothers (TBD)
If you’ve called yourself a film buff in the last 10 years, how could a new Coen brothers movie not by at the top of your most anticipated list? Their new film is a dramatic foray into the world of 60’s folk rock. Oscar Isaac, who you might recognize as Carey Mulligan’s (also starring here along with Justin Timberlake) husband in “Drive,” plays the title character, a New York based producer modeled off the life of Dave Van Ronk.
“Prisoners” is the first English language film from the French Canadian director Denis Villeneuve, who brought us the excellent Oscar nominated drama “Incendies.” “Prisoners” has an absolutely terrific cast including Hugh Jackman, Jake Gyllenhaal, Paul Dano, Maria Bello, Terrence Howard, Viola Davis. The screenplay, however, by the writer of the unfortunate “Contraband” has been on the shelf awhile as it changed casts and directors.
Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron (October 18)
Alfonso Cuaron is supposedly attempting an unbroken take that lasts for 30 minutes in his new sci-fi “Gravity” (who does he think he is, Bela Tarr?) starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. If he pulls it off, it’ll be mighty impressive considering that it’s being shot in 3-D.
To the Wonder – Terrence Malick (April 12)
“To the Wonder” was almost universally hated when it premiered at the Venice Film Festival last year and was pushed back to 2013, and frankly, the trailer was edited in such a way that if you were to make a parody trailer of what a Terrence Malick movie looked and felt like, this would be it. If there’s less buzz surrounding it than Malick’s untitled Austin, Texas music scene movie that apparently stars everyone, that’s because “To the Wonder” is a companion piece to “The Tree of Life,” even going as far as to use some of the same footage. Granted, it could still be a masterpiece.
The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese (TBD)
Yes, Scorsese pictures with Leo in them are great and all, and this one about a crooked NY stock broker seems to be more up Marty’s ally than “Hugo” or “Shutter Island,” but the big buzz is that the screenplay comes from “Sopranos” and “Boardwalk Empire” creator Terence Winter. It also stars Jonah Hill (could we soon be saying TWO-TIME Oscar nominee Jonah Hill?) and Matthew McConaughey, who is no doubt on a roll.
Labor Day – Jason Reitman (TBD)
Thankfully not another idiotic incarnation of the “New Years Eve” and “Valentine’s Day” movies, “Labor Day” is Jason Reitman’s first real foray into drama. The screenplay is his own from Joyce Maynard’s novel about a depressed woman (Kate Winslet) who offers a ride to an escaped convict (Josh Brolin).
Side Effects – Steven Soderbergh (February 8)
“In some instances, DEATH may occur,” i.e. the best tagline ever. You know Soderbergh, no one is going to believe that you’re retiring if you keep putting out a movie every six months. “Side Effects” is a romance and thriller surrounding a depressed woman (Rooney Mara) and the doctor (Jude Law) providing her prescription medication. It should make for a good thriller, as Soderbergh is working with the same screenwriter behind “Contagion.”
Before Midnight – Richard Linklater (Sundance first, then TBD)
In “Before Midnight,” Richard Linklater is revisiting Jesse and Celine again another nine years after “Before Sunset,” which of course was the sequel to “Before Sunrise” from 1995. Both Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy are now credited writers in what is sure to be another intelligent and improvised character study.
This is the End – Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg (June 14)
I’m always wondering how some comedians today can make an outrageous and even groundbreaking web series or video and yet can continually make boring and cliché Hollywood comedies. Well, my prayers have been answered with “This is the End,” a movie that throws a bunch of celebrities together and lets them play off their own perceived screen personas in a madcap comedy about the end of the world. The Red Band trailer is hysterical.
I’m So Excited – Pedro Almodovar (March in Spain, then hopefully US before long)
It’s been nearly two decades since Pedro Almodovar has made a comedy, and he’s never made one with his two muses, Penelope Cruz and Antonio Banderas, both together. The trailer features three very gay flight attendants in very flamboyant colors singing the Pointer Sisters, so yes, I’m very excited.
The Place Beyond the Pines – Derek Cianfrance (March 29)
I have to keep telling myself this is not “Blue Valentine” meets “Drive.” It stars Ryan Gosling as a motorcycle stunt driver on the run from a cop (Bradley Cooper) in Derek Cianfrance’s follow-up to his indie darling. Both characters however are strong father figures, and this thriller uses that as a powerful theme throughout.
“The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His” and “Hers” (TBD)
“The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby” is actually two films, although I’m not sure what either has to do with The Beatles, if anything. One is told from the perspective of the husband in a troubled relationship (James McAvoy) and the other is from the wife’s (Jessica Chastain).
Oldboy – Spike Lee (October 11)
Yes, this is a remake of the IMDB Top 250 darling “Oldboy” by Chan-wook Park, who is ironically also releasing a movie this year, “Stoker.” It stars Samuel L. Jackson, Josh Brolin, “Martha Marcy May Marlene’s” Elizabeth Olsen and “District 9’s” Sharlto Copley.
Captain Phillips – Paul Greengrass (October 11)
I was disappointed with Paul Greengrass’s last film “Green Zone,” so I’m hoping for a return to form in “Captain Phillips.” He’s cast Tom Hanks in the title role as a captain dealing with the first of the Somali pirate hijackings that took place in 2009. The screenplay comes from Billy Ray, director of “Breach” and co-screenwriter of “The Hunger Games.”
“The Monuments Men” – George Clooney (December 20)
“The Monuments Men” will be George Clooney’s fifth film behind the camera. It’s a World War II story about art historians trying to retrieve artwork stolen by the Nazis. It’s rumored to star Daniel Craig, Matt Damon, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman and “The Artist’s” Jean Dujardin. Could be Oscar gold.
Ender’s Game – Gavin Hood (December 1)
“Ender’s Game” is one of my favorite childhood books I have no recollection of, a “Hunger Games” esque story in which kids are trained for intergalactic battle by participating in war games. Author Orson Scott Card was for a very long time hesitant to release the rights to the film, fearing that the movie would have to be very different from the book to be successful. Well, supposedly now it is, and he feels confident about the script. “Ender’s Game” is directed by Gavin Hood and stars Asa Butterfield, Abigail Breslin and Harrison Ford.
The World’s End – Edgar Wright (October 25)
Edgar Wright is returning to his collaboration with Simon Pegg and Nick Frost to create the third film in what’s known as “The Blood and Ice Cream Trilogy.” Despite being yet another comedy about the apocalypse this year, these guys are a tried and true pairing.
Sound City – Dave Grohl (February 1)
Foo Fighters front man Dave Grohl, in his quest to be everywhere at once, has now taken up documentary filmmaking with his debut movie “Sound City.” He’s gathered a huge flock of his rock star friends to discuss the joys of recording at a long forgotten studio called Sound City. The film will premiere at Sundance (and Grohl will be on hand with a performance by the newly formed Sound City Players) but will be available for download shortly thereafter.
A Glimpse Inside the Mind of Charles Swan III – Roman Coppola (February 15)
Roman Coppola’s (frequent Wes Anderson collaborator) second film could just be the most bananas comedy of the year, and not just because the movie poster is just one giant banana. Charlie Sheen plays Charles Swan III in this bizarre, surreal comedy starring Jason Schwartzman and Bill Murray.
Dead Man Down – Niels Arden Oplev (March 8)
The trailer looked pretty ho-hum, but Niels Arden Oplev gave me the biggest surprise of the year in his Swedish version of “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.” This English language film actually reunites him with Noomi Rapace in a crime thriller about a woman who seduces a mobster to seek revenge.
Movies you might think I’d be more excited for, but no
“The Great Gatsby,” “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire,” “Oblivion,” “Star Trek Into Darkness,” “Elysium,” “Pacific Rim,” “Sin City: A Dame to Kill For,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “Oz the Great and Powerful,” “Man of Steel,” “The Wolverine,” “Anchorman: The Legend Continues,” “Iron Man 3,” “Kick-Ass 2,” “Thor: The Dark World,” “The Lone Ranger”
