All the Oscar surprises that really weren’t surprises after all
The Oscar nominees rarely satisfy, only surprise and enrage, although never in the way people expect, which I guess is its own surprise.
It was expected that Amy Adams could “surprise” by breaking into the field of Best Actress nominees, but did anyone suspect that it would be at Emma Thompson’s expense? There were predictions that Christian Bale or Leonardo DiCaprio could get into an even tighter race, but both of them? Sally Hawkins was less expected behind perhaps Octavia Spencer and others, but was Oprah really the weak link?
These are the kinds of revelations that both delight and frustrate Oscar pundits. In a way, they were right that the Academy after all did not love “Inside Llewyn Davis” or “Saving Mr. Banks,” but then those prediction tallies never seem to match up.
The fact that there are surprises each year really shouldn’t be a surprise at all. If the Oscar nominations were as easy to predict as picking all the top ranked favorites, then what would be the fun of waking up at 7:38 in the morning to watch them? For instance, why was there doubt that David O. Russell couldn’t lead yet another cast to a sweep of the acting categories like he did with “Silver Linings Playbook” and nearly did with “The Fighter”? That’s one of those “surprises” that people should’ve seen coming a mile away, but no one did.
I guess it’s less of a surprise that Oscar pundits will now all turn around and rationalize the nominations in the way I’ve just done, as though it made sense or was expected all along, but no one “knew” that Thompson would be out, or no one “knew” that “Philomena” was a sure thing thanks to Harvey Weinstein after all. (I did however bet Hanks would get nothing) Continue reading “Oscar Nominations 2014 Analysis: Full of Surprises and None”
Who all will be nominated for the 2014 Oscars on January 16.
The day has come. Everyone’s had their say, and the Oscar nominations are only days away. In one corner we have strong consensus on some absolute great movies, movies that could sit on any year’s Best Picture list and be stronger contenders than they are here. And in the other corner you have controversy, bitching, stewing and whining that maybe just about all of these are overrated to some degree. I mean, we knew “Spring Breakers” wasn’t about to be nominated, but does the Academy really think there are 10 better movies this year than “Before Midnight”?
It’s easy to get exhausted by all the bickering, but then that’s criticism, and that’s the Oscar race. It isn’t every year that we get three, maybe four plausible winners in such a vast field.
I tend to enjoy Oscar nomination morning even more so than Oscar night itself. There are more chances for surprise, for curveballs, snubs and the opportunity to pick the winner. Maybe not everyone is aware that Cate Blanchett’s Oscar win this year will be a foregone conclusion (watch me eat those words), but there’s a lot less certainty when it’s so close to being over.
This year my predictions have gone back and forth, but not as much as you might think. Movies like “Rush,” “August: Osage County” and “Fruitvale Station” have been pushed to the margins as the months have passed, and “Her” and “American Hustle” have emerged as more than gems. But this crop of films that we started with back in October has stayed mostly constant because all of them have been as good, if not better than expected. No amount of prognosticating, statistics and snubs can take all that away.
Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
American Hustle
Her
Captain Phillips
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
Nebraska
Inside Llewyn Davis
This remains a race between “12 Years a Slave,” “Gravity,” “American Hustle” and to a lesser degree “Her,” and it’s most exciting to know that not one is the runaway favorite. “12 Years” may be in the lead, but “American Hustle” pulled the hat trick of being recognized by all three guilds, the DGA, PGA and WGA.
“Captain Phillips” and “Saving Mr. Banks” seem like safe fifth and sixth bets, both studio films but one with an edgy action pulse and the other a family friendly affair full of Old Hollywood nostalgia.
A bigger question mark however hangs over “The Wolf of Wall Street,” the most controversial of all the contenders, and “Inside Llewyn Davis,” which has been hit or miss. Opposite “American Hustle,” it pulled the hat trick of being snubbed by all three guilds, and yet it swept the National Society of Film Critics’ Awards.
The reason I feel both are getting in is the little movie no one is talking about, “Nebraska.” This movie has quietly remained in the hunt despite only mild notices for its actors. Alexander Payne missed with the DGA, and no critics have really come to bat for it. But is there a fear that it can’t scrape together a measly 300 1st place votes? Both “Inside Llewyn Davis” and “Wolf” have that kind of love, despite the hate, and this will be a nine horse race for the third year running. Continue reading “2014 Oscars Final Predictions”
Championing a year in cinema and the stories only it can tell
The major theme across the intros to most of this year’s Best Film lists has been that the movies matter. Critics have championed the movies that could only be movies, ones that feel cinematic not because they’re big but because they can be small, because they can avoid “complex narrative” as championed by TV and use imagery and style above all to conveya different sort of complexity.
“The ever-increasing prominence of television is, in turn, sparking a renewed reflection on the part of filmmakers about what cinema is, and what it can be. The conflict between the dependent image and the essential image, between the transparent and the conspicuous, is real and serious…The best movies this year are films of combative cinema, audacious inventions in vision. The specificity and originality of their moment-to-moment creation of images offers new ways for viewers to confront the notion of what “narrative” might be.”
“It is easy to conclude that movies have surrendered that long-held vanguard position. The creative flowering of television has exposed the complacency and conservatism that rules big-money filmmaking at the studio level… But within this landscape of bloat and desolation, there is quite a lot worth caring about. More important, there are filmmakers determined to refine and reinvigorate the medium, to recapture its newness and uniqueness and to figure out, in a post-film, platform-agnostic, digital-everything era, what the art of cinema might be.”
They seem to say in blunter terms, “Yeah, TV’s good, but fuck that.”
This is cinema. You can hurl around “golden age of TV” all you want, but I can’t imagine any of these stories, some of them with minimal plot, some with no discernable plot at all, being transplanted to TV.
That doesn’t mean they aren’t deeply moving works of art, experiences with beginnings, middles and ends that carry emotions, characters and visceral sensations through their durations.
These are the things you can’t find anywhere else. I don’t know if the movies are blooming or dying (the consensus seems to be both), but they continue to be groundbreaking and frankly amazing.
I’m aware there’s five seasons of “Breaking Bad” on Netflix, but these 25 movies, 15 ranked, eight unranked and two Honorable Mentions, are the stuff that will blow your mind if you gave it the time of day.
“Inside Llewyn Davis” is the Coen Brothers’ searingly intimate folk ballad.
Folk music is that most honest of all music genres. It’s often just a man, his words and his guitar, and through simple song structure and intimacy of the performance, it hits searing individual truths. And yet when folk music is done poorly, it can be the most hammy and phony of all, a parody of itself and hardly a solid piece of music.
The only American directors capable of handling that dichotomy are the Coen Brothers. The two are masters of characterization and tone, bordering on satire and sincerity with each of their characters. “Inside Llewyn Davis” is their folk ballad, and it’s a searing portrait of an unlikeable and sullen artist, one that feels warm and honest without ever trying to fake folksy charm.
“Inside Llewyn Davis” could not be possible without the lead performance of its title character by Oscar Isaac. In this film full of cartoonish supporting players coloring a strange, tough-to-crack world, Isaac plays Llewyn with every ounce of attitude and truth. Llewyn is completely unlikeable, stuck-up, lazy, pretentious, snarky and never cool, and Isaac turns him into a tragic figure befitting a travelling folk song. Continue reading “Inside Llewyn Davis”
2014 Oscar Predictions near the end of the year and just before critics groups weigh in.
A month after my first batch of Oscar predictions, my sentiments about this season are summed up in this paragraph from just one of Mark Harris’s brilliant Oscar posts on Grantland:
In September, I got some ribbing from colleagues for saying it was too early to make predictions. I hope I don’t cause any of them to have an aneurysm by ever so gently saying it again two months later. At the very least, can we stipulate that Variety‘s pronouncementthat 2013 offers “more terrific awards possibilities than ever” feels slightly out of sync with the fare at your local multiplex, which is playing Free Birds, Last Vegas, Ender’s Game, and Bad Grandpa?
Right now I can go out and recommend a half dozen great movies that are playing in places outside New York and L.A.. But the disconnect between “Oscar talk and real-world moviegoers,” as Harris also mentions, is built not just on hyperbole. As Oscar world has hit its lull between the time when “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” come out, pundits have grown tired discussing “12 Years a Slave,” “Gravity” and “Captain Phillips” right as these movies need it most.
Movies like “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “Nebraska” and “All is Lost” are encountering the same problem because everyone who matters saw these movies MONTHS ago at Cannes. I mean honestly, who hasn’t seen “Inside Llewyn Davis” yet? Oh, everyone.
My latest set of predictions doesn’t have much in ways of changes, and that’s more of the reason why it’s easy to become bored of all this. But I was able to see a few more films like “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Blue is the Warmest Color” and “All is Lost” to confirm what the pundits already knew or suspected.
Now in just a few days, the critics will weigh in and nominations from the Indie Spirits and Golden Globes will begin rolling in and dictating the shape of the season all over again. Until then, here’s going with the flow:
* Designates a movie I’ve seen
Bulleted entries are Dark Horse candidates ranked in likelihood of getting in
Best Picture
Inside Llewyn Davis – CBS Films
Gravity*
12 Years a Slave*
Captain Phillips*
Saving Mr. Banks
Inside Llewyn Davis*
Nebraska*
August: Osage County*
Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
The Wolf of Wall Street
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club*
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Philomena*
All is Lost*
Blue Jasmine*
Before Midnight*
Her
Rush*
Fruitvale Station*
A month ago I worried that “Inside Llewyn Davis” might be ignored by the Academy, a slight Coen entry that would be overlooked by big Oscar bait like “12 Years,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “The Butler” and “August: Osage County.” Now before the critics have even had their say, “Inside Llewyn Davis” is riding a small wave of anticipation as “August” and “The Butler” buckle under the weight of their casts and their reviews. It seems like a lock compared to the question marks that are “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.”
The other strong entry of course is “Nebraska,” which I feared would have the same fate. That film however, also a Cannes entry, has now reminded everyone that it is a genuine crowd pleaser that will scratch just the right itch in this Academy demographic.
Unfortunately for “All is Lost,” “Blue Jasmine,” “Before Midnight” or “Her,” those two movies in my mind take up the “indie” spots that the Academy now reserves. And if any were to bump out “The Butler” or “August” it would be “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Philomena” or a real Academy shocker in “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty,” movies that are more Oscar friendly and could use the help.
A preview of 35 films showing at the 49th Chicago International Film Festival (CIFF) between October 10-24
Toronto, Sundance, New York and now Telluride get all the love.
Those North American festivals have been covered to death in this Oscar season that’s come (and been declared finished) all too early, and the focus moves so fast that the media neglects to appeal to the millions in the Midwest and elsewhere who never get to see those buzzy movies with that tiny fraction of the film loving community.
But I call Chicago home, and so do thousands of other film lovers. Our Chicago International Film Festival is in its 49th year, and although Harvey Weinstein didn’t think to premiere his awards bait movies here, we get a diverse line-up of films and crave guidance, recommendations and coverage just like anyone else.
This year’s lineup, which runs October 10-24, is now available for sale to the general public and can be viewed in full here, seems especially strong, and my lineup is fairly stacked with a handful of near schedule conflicts. So if you’ve got a Festival Pass, here’s a little who’s who of 35 of this year’s CIFF movies.
Here’s hoping Fall 2013 is a lot better than the summer.
This summer movie season was so ho-hum that the films that were so hyped mere months ago will fade into oblivion as soon as September gets going. Yes, gems like “Frances Ha” and “The Spectacular Now” may be revived by critics come Top Ten list time, but as a stacked fall continues to impress, movies like “Blue Jasmine,” “Before Midnight” and “Fruitvale Station” seem less certain to make appearances come Oscar night.
As I’ve done in seasons past, I’ve made clever groupings for the huge batch of films coming our way, and since my excitement ranges from pretty solid to thrilled for most of them, they’re now grouped by “type” instead.
Keep in mind that some of these movies will have tentative release dates, some have not yet picked up a date or distribution in America, some will only get extremely limited Oscar qualifying runs at the end of the year, and some might not end up coming out this year at all.
Destined for Awesomeness
Gravity – October 4
Not all films can be described as jaw-droppingly good looking by a trailer alone, but the fascinating POV, 3-D effects in Alfonso Cuaron’s “Gravity” certainly can. Will the narrative be sustaining enough with just Sandra Bullock floating through space? Early reviews say hell yes.
Captain Phillips – October 11
“Green Zone” was too much Bourne in Iraq, so it’s refreshing to see Paul Greengrass take on another real-event inspired story with a new actor. Tom Hanks could earn an Oscar nod for his hybrid action star turn.
12 Years a Slave – October 18
Last year Leo played the Southern slave owner, and this year Michael Fassbender gets that juicy role. Just about anything would be more Oscar friendly than “Shame,” but Steve McQueen should bring some much needed darkness to this story.
The Wolf of Wall Street – November 15
The trailer that produced the most mesmerizing gif of the year looks no less enticing. Scored to Kanye’s “Black Skinheads,” Scorsese’s Leo-led drama with Matthew McConaughey and Jonah Hill looks to be a mad romp set to cap a year full of “have-more” movies.
Inside Llewyn Davis – December 6
Though considered a more modest Coen Brothers film, Oscar Isaac and “Inside Llewyn Davis” took Cannes by storm with its ‘60s folk rock charm. I hope to see it as the closing night film in the Chicago International Film Festival.
American Hustle – December 13
Oscar pundits are saying third time’s a charm for David O. Russell, who is reuniting his casts from “The Fighter” and “Silver Linings Playbook” (and throwing in Louis C.K. for good measure) for a con artist drama. If you thought the hair styles looked silly in “Argo,” wait till you see this.
Her – December 20
Spike Jonze’s return to feature length films since 2009’s “Where the Wild Things Are” features Joaquin Phoenix in a rare sympathetic and vulnerable role in which he’s falling in love with his Siri-esque computer voiced by Scarlett Johansson. It looks lovely.
The Wind Rises – N/A
New Miyazaki movie? Yes please! This story about a Japanese fighter plane designer during World War II reminds of the early Studio Ghibli film “Grave of the Fireflies” and looks to be Miyazaki’s most adult movie yet. Continue reading “Fall Movie Preview 2013”
You should know that I don’t really consider the year over until all four and half hours of the Oscars have aired, so I have no reason to do a 2013 movie preview just yet. There are more than enough blogs with lists that’ll tell you there’s a new “Star Trek” movie coming out or that there are a half dozen superhero sequels and reboots set to clog up the summer.
Frankly I’m more interested in the movies that absolutely no one’s heard of yet, but suffice it to say there are a few already that have piqued my interest. So these are just the movie guy movies that don’t have established fan bases nor require plot speculation. I can be comprehensive next season.
Inside Llewyn Davis – Coen Brothers (TBD)
If you’ve called yourself a film buff in the last 10 years, how could a new Coen brothers movie not by at the top of your most anticipated list? Their new film is a dramatic foray into the world of 60’s folk rock. Oscar Isaac, who you might recognize as Carey Mulligan’s (also starring here along with Justin Timberlake) husband in “Drive,” plays the title character, a New York based producer modeled off the life of Dave Van Ronk.
“Prisoners” is the first English language film from the French Canadian director Denis Villeneuve, who brought us the excellent Oscar nominated drama “Incendies.” “Prisoners” has an absolutely terrific cast including Hugh Jackman, Jake Gyllenhaal, Paul Dano, Maria Bello, Terrence Howard, Viola Davis. The screenplay, however, by the writer of the unfortunate “Contraband” has been on the shelf awhile as it changed casts and directors.
Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron (October 18)
Alfonso Cuaron is supposedly attempting an unbroken take that lasts for 30 minutes in his new sci-fi “Gravity” (who does he think he is, Bela Tarr?) starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. If he pulls it off, it’ll be mighty impressive considering that it’s being shot in 3-D.
To the Wonder – Terrence Malick (April 12)
“To the Wonder” was almost universally hated when it premiered at the Venice Film Festival last year and was pushed back to 2013, and frankly, the trailer was edited in such a way that if you were to make a parody trailer of what a Terrence Malick movie looked and felt like, this would be it. If there’s less buzz surrounding it than Malick’s untitled Austin, Texas music scene movie that apparently stars everyone, that’s because “To the Wonder” is a companion piece to “The Tree of Life,” even going as far as to use some of the same footage. Granted, it could still be a masterpiece.
The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese (TBD)
Yes, Scorsese pictures with Leo in them are great and all, and this one about a crooked NY stock broker seems to be more up Marty’s ally than “Hugo” or “Shutter Island,” but the big buzz is that the screenplay comes from “Sopranos” and “Boardwalk Empire” creator Terence Winter. It also stars Jonah Hill (could we soon be saying TWO-TIME Oscar nominee Jonah Hill?) and Matthew McConaughey, who is no doubt on a roll.
Labor Day – Jason Reitman (TBD)
Thankfully not another idiotic incarnation of the “New Years Eve” and “Valentine’s Day” movies, “Labor Day” is Jason Reitman’s first real foray into drama. The screenplay is his own from Joyce Maynard’s novel about a depressed woman (Kate Winslet) who offers a ride to an escaped convict (Josh Brolin).
Side Effects – Steven Soderbergh (February 8)
“In some instances, DEATH may occur,” i.e. the best tagline ever. You know Soderbergh, no one is going to believe that you’re retiring if you keep putting out a movie every six months. “Side Effects” is a romance and thriller surrounding a depressed woman (Rooney Mara) and the doctor (Jude Law) providing her prescription medication. It should make for a good thriller, as Soderbergh is working with the same screenwriter behind “Contagion.”
Before Midnight – Richard Linklater (Sundance first, then TBD)
In “Before Midnight,” Richard Linklater is revisiting Jesse and Celine again another nine years after “Before Sunset,” which of course was the sequel to “Before Sunrise” from 1995. Both Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy are now credited writers in what is sure to be another intelligent and improvised character study.
This is the End – Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg (June 14)
I’m always wondering how some comedians today can make an outrageous and even groundbreaking web series or video and yet can continually make boring and cliché Hollywood comedies. Well, my prayers have been answered with “This is the End,” a movie that throws a bunch of celebrities together and lets them play off their own perceived screen personas in a madcap comedy about the end of the world. The Red Band trailer is hysterical.
I’m So Excited – Pedro Almodovar (March in Spain, then hopefully US before long)
It’s been nearly two decades since Pedro Almodovar has made a comedy, and he’s never made one with his two muses, Penelope Cruz and Antonio Banderas, both together. The trailer features three very gay flight attendants in very flamboyant colors singing the Pointer Sisters, so yes, I’m very excited.
The Place Beyond the Pines – Derek Cianfrance (March 29)
I have to keep telling myself this is not “Blue Valentine” meets “Drive.” It stars Ryan Gosling as a motorcycle stunt driver on the run from a cop (Bradley Cooper) in Derek Cianfrance’s follow-up to his indie darling. Both characters however are strong father figures, and this thriller uses that as a powerful theme throughout.
“The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His” and “Hers” (TBD)
“The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby” is actually two films, although I’m not sure what either has to do with The Beatles, if anything. One is told from the perspective of the husband in a troubled relationship (James McAvoy) and the other is from the wife’s (Jessica Chastain).
Oldboy – Spike Lee (October 11)
Yes, this is a remake of the IMDB Top 250 darling “Oldboy” by Chan-wook Park, who is ironically also releasing a movie this year, “Stoker.” It stars Samuel L. Jackson, Josh Brolin, “Martha Marcy May Marlene’s” Elizabeth Olsen and “District 9’s” Sharlto Copley.
Captain Phillips – Paul Greengrass (October 11)
I was disappointed with Paul Greengrass’s last film “Green Zone,” so I’m hoping for a return to form in “Captain Phillips.” He’s cast Tom Hanks in the title role as a captain dealing with the first of the Somali pirate hijackings that took place in 2009. The screenplay comes from Billy Ray, director of “Breach” and co-screenwriter of “The Hunger Games.”
“The Monuments Men” – George Clooney (December 20)
“The Monuments Men” will be George Clooney’s fifth film behind the camera. It’s a World War II story about art historians trying to retrieve artwork stolen by the Nazis. It’s rumored to star Daniel Craig, Matt Damon, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman and “The Artist’s” Jean Dujardin. Could be Oscar gold.
Ender’s Game – Gavin Hood (December 1)
“Ender’s Game” is one of my favorite childhood books I have no recollection of, a “Hunger Games” esque story in which kids are trained for intergalactic battle by participating in war games. Author Orson Scott Card was for a very long time hesitant to release the rights to the film, fearing that the movie would have to be very different from the book to be successful. Well, supposedly now it is, and he feels confident about the script. “Ender’s Game” is directed by Gavin Hood and stars Asa Butterfield, Abigail Breslin and Harrison Ford.
The World’s End – Edgar Wright (October 25)
Edgar Wright is returning to his collaboration with Simon Pegg and Nick Frost to create the third film in what’s known as “The Blood and Ice Cream Trilogy.” Despite being yet another comedy about the apocalypse this year, these guys are a tried and true pairing.
Sound City – Dave Grohl (February 1)
Foo Fighters front man Dave Grohl, in his quest to be everywhere at once, has now taken up documentary filmmaking with his debut movie “Sound City.” He’s gathered a huge flock of his rock star friends to discuss the joys of recording at a long forgotten studio called Sound City. The film will premiere at Sundance (and Grohl will be on hand with a performance by the newly formed Sound City Players) but will be available for download shortly thereafter.
A Glimpse Inside the Mind of Charles Swan III – Roman Coppola (February 15)
Roman Coppola’s (frequent Wes Anderson collaborator) second film could just be the most bananas comedy of the year, and not just because the movie poster is just one giant banana. Charlie Sheen plays Charles Swan III in this bizarre, surreal comedy starring Jason Schwartzman and Bill Murray.
Dead Man Down – Niels Arden Oplev (March 8)
The trailer looked pretty ho-hum, but Niels Arden Oplev gave me the biggest surprise of the year in his Swedish version of “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.” This English language film actually reunites him with Noomi Rapace in a crime thriller about a woman who seduces a mobster to seek revenge.
Movies you might think I’d be more excited for, but no
“The Great Gatsby,” “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire,” “Oblivion,” “Star Trek Into Darkness,” “Elysium,” “Pacific Rim,” “Sin City: A Dame to Kill For,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “Oz the Great and Powerful,” “Man of Steel,” “The Wolverine,” “Anchorman: The Legend Continues,” “Iron Man 3,” “Kick-Ass 2,” “Thor: The Dark World,” “The Lone Ranger”
