I just finished watching a Katie Couric special edition of “20/20” in which they talked about everything that makes the Oscars iconic, but none of the reasons why I actually care about the awards. Hearing about Bjork’s swan dress is cute, but I’m in this for the movies.
Every year I come up with elaborate reasons why this year’s winner will mean something. For “The Artist” it was that even a silent, foreign, black and white comedy could win Best Picture and make people interested in a great form of movie history for just a little while. For “The King’s Speech” it was that the love for Old Hollywood was alive and well, even if I was pulling for the generational landmark that would’ve been a victory for “The Social Network.” And for “The Hurt Locker,” it signified a turning point in our view of the campaign in the Middle East, as well as a long denied achievement for women everywhere, which really is something to cheer about.
And yet just as I study every nominee and understand every nuance of the race, all of that is forgotten as quickly as the next year, and the only things that are left are the great movies themselves.
I think this year’s Oscars matter because above all, they will honor a lot of great movies, more than in most years. I may not think “Argo” is the best movie of the year, nor is my pick even nominated, but I think that whatever wins, it will be a victory for quality (except for “Les Miz” obviously).
Here then are my final predictions for what will take home gold on Oscar night. This year has been so exciting, so tumultuous, so long and so controversial that if I have to make one correct prediction, it’s that I will be wrong… possibly a lot.
Best Picture
Argo
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty
Amour
Les Miserables
Beasts of the Southern Wild
I don’t think I ever wanted to admit that there was going to be a sure fire winner for Best Picture, and I don’t think I ever could. The “Argo” freight train of success is still relatively fresh news. A lot has happened since it premiered at Telluride back in September, and there was a time just six weeks ago when nominations were announced that it looked to be a dead and gone afterthought. Now it has swept every major guild prize and award in sight, and it is poised to make history no matter what happens. All the comparisons that have been made to explain its victory in the context of past winners will be erased because its victory (or loss) will be completely unprecedented. Pundits will now point to it as the example.
If it wins, it will be because it is a great film, but also because it is an agreeable film that was able to weather the storm of controversy and barrier to entry better than any other.
“Lincoln” hardly seems formidable, and in fact “Life of Pi” or “Silver Linings Playbook” look even stronger with more recent wins in the bag, but it remains an even greater film in my view and is still, on paper, the predictable Oscar winner.
Brian’s Pick: Argo
Dark Horse: Lincoln, followed by Silver Linings Playbook, then Life of Pi
Hopefully this is the last week that the Oscar race sees a real lull, because ballots are sent to voters this week, so maybe there will be something to talk about then.
“Argo” wins DGA
I wrote in a column just yesterday how ridiculous the discussion over “Argo” is getting, but there’s no denying that the movie looks mighty strong. On Saturday it won the coveted Directors Guild prize, an award that usually predicts the Best Director Oscar winner and consequently Best Picture. Obviously though, Ben Affleck is without a nomination on Oscar night, so I think the uncertainty factor for what will finally happen is more uncertain than most Oscar pundits care to admit. One theory is that the super amount of praise for “Argo” will now turn into backlash as the ballots go out.
“Or you could just give all the pundits bicycles and meet them at the Oscars with Gatorade.”
Now that “Argo” has won the Directors Guild prize, it’s time again to ask the question that every Oscar pundit has been asking for the last two weeks: Is “Argo” more like “Apollo 13” or “Driving Miss Daisy?”
Wait, what?
Oscar pundits have one job, and that’s to make sense of the Oscar race, how the Academy thinks and use statistics combined with unscientific intuition to predict who will actually win.
But this year a curious thing happened in that we actually have a race on our hands. The factors that have led up to where we are now, still three weeks away from the Oscars themselves and even days away from the ballots even being mailed out, have been so numerous and unprecedented that no real front runner has ever really been established.
And because of this, analysts have been wrapping themselves into pretzels desperate to find one. Within minutes of the nominations being announced, I could find you tweets of Sasha Stone claiming this was all sewn up for “Lincoln,” no question. Now just two weeks later, the Oscar race is over yet again with a new contender up front, “Argo.” Continue reading “'Argo' and the pretzel logic of Oscar pundits”
Last year when the Oscar nominations were announced, I couldn’t stop myself from yelling at the TV when “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” got nominated for Best Picture.
This year, there were a lot of snubs and a lot of surprises, but I held my tongue.
That’s because last year, I was more or less certain going in that not only would “The Artist” be nominated, it would probably win. The news was what else would share its spotlight in history, not the actual awards.
2012 is different. I didn’t know for sure what would be nominated, and noting how many predictions I got wrong, I can safely say I still don’t know what might win. In ANY category. We still have a real race on our hands.
No, we didn’t see a real surprise nominee like “Skyfall,” “The Master” or something completely out of left field like “The Intouchables” or “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” to round out a top 10, but you tell me who’s going to win Best Picture.
“Lincoln” got 12 nominations, which is a lot. That’s as many as “Ben-Hur” got. But is the movie so universally loved that it can make a clean sweep? It’s hardly Spielberg’s best movie, even if it is his best in a decade, but some people have viewed it as homework.
I have more questions about “Life of Pi’s” chances. “Life of Pi” got 11 nominations, none of them from acting, but it did get a surprise Adapted Screenplay nod and Best Director nod. “Life of Pi” did well at the box office, but how big was this movie’s Oscar campaign? Not as big as “Silver Linings Playbook,” and certainly not as big as “Lincoln.” This movie is practically under the radar, a movie that was probably in the five or six slot for nomination is now looking like the front runner.
As early as yesterday, I would’ve said “Argo” or “Zero Dark Thirty” would be the front runners to win. “Argo” is the most well-liked movie of the year. Very few people have a bad word to say about it, and just about everyone has seen it, both of which are things that none of the other nominees can claim. “Zero Dark Thirty” has a lot of controversy behind it, but it is by far the critical darling of the year. Now however, neither Ben Affleck nor former winner Kathryn Bigelow have been nominated for Best Director. Movies have won Best Picture without winning Best Director before, but only three times in the 85 year history has a movie won Best Picture without even being nominated, those being in 1927, 1931 and 1989 when “Driving Miss Daisy” had a surprise victory.
“Silver Linings” isn’t that weak either. With Jacki Weaver getting in, it’s the first movie since “Reds” to be nominated in every acting category. That gives it eight nominations, which is nothing to scoff at.
Could “Amour” or “Beasts of the Southern Wild” pull off a surprise win? Michael Haneke was on a short list for possible director nominees, but almost no one had first-timer Benh Zeitlin on their lists. Both movies are riding the waves of having the youngest and oldest Best Actress nominees of all time in Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva.
Even “Django Unchained” doesn’t look too weak. I predicted it would get seven nominations, but it’s got five, and Christoph Waltz taking Leo’s or even Javier Bardem’s spot says something.
That’s already a lot to mull over, but can you honestly make a prediction in any of the other races?
Daniel Day-Lewis seems perfectly plausible to win Best Actor. He’s playing Abraham Lincoln for God sakes. But he would be making history as the only actor to have won three Oscars. Are we prepared to call Daniel Day-Lewis the BEST actor of all time if he wins? Perhaps Joaquin Phoenix is stronger than we think, or maybe “Silver Linings” can ride an acting wave for an Oscar for Bradley Cooper.
Best Actress? Who knows. Jennifer Lawrence is the real movie star of the bunch, but Wallis can light up a room, Jessica Chastain is being called a female powerhouse in “Zero Dark Thirty,” Riva has the support of an older branch who remembers her in French New Wave classics, and Naomi Watts has the British voting block in her largely tearjerker of a movie.
Maybe Robert De Niro will end up being the three time Oscar winner, not Day-Lewis. But consider that everyone else in the Best Supporting category has already won. That’s just unprecedented.
The only conceivable prediction thus far is Anne Hathaway in “Les Miserables.” She steals the show in her three minute song, and there’s no telling that she’s one of the biggest movie stars right now who arguably deserves one. But just how good are Sally Field, Helen Hunt and Amy Adams in their movies? This is not a weak category, as I previously assumed.
No, I’m not quite ready to make any prediction. And that’s a good thing. For years the Academy has been trying desperately to get more people to actually watch the Oscars, be it through trendy hosts, more Best Picture nominees, an earlier schedule and a different presentation format. But now the Oscars have added one element that the show hasn’t had in years: surprise.
Correction: In a previous version, it was incorrectly stated that “Lincoln” received the most nominations of all time, tied with “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “LOTR: The Return of the King.” In actuality, 14 nominations is the record held by “All About Eve” and “Titanic.” The record for most wins is 11.
“Lincoln” leads the 2012 Oscar nominees with 12 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director Steven Spielberg and Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis.
Emma Stone and Seth MacFarlane announced Thursday morning from the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences that there would be nine nominees for Best Picture this year in the 85th Academy Awards.
Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” led the pack with 12 nominations, followed by Ang Lee’s “Life of Pi” with 11. Including “Lincoln” and “Life of Pi,” the nine nominees for Best Picture are “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Argo,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Django Unchained,” “Amour” and “Les Miserables.”
The morning lacked a surprise, almost trolling nomination like “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” last year, but there were plenty of unexpected snubs.
In the directing category, both “Argo” and “Zero Dark Thirty” were thought to be something of front runners in the Oscar race, but both Ben Affleck and former winner Kathryn Bigelow were left out, leaving room for Michael Haneke of “Amour” and Benh Zeitlin of “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” The remaining nominees were David O. Russell, Spielberg and Lee. Both Affleck and Bigelow were just nominated for the Directors Guild Award, which has the best track record in predicting the ultimate Oscar winner.
For Best Actress, the Academy created history twice by nominating the youngest and oldest actresses in the race. Emmanuelle Riva, 85, and Quvenzhane Wallis, 9, were both nominated for “Amour” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild” alongside Jennifer Lawrence, Naomi Watts and Jessica Chastain.
The Best Supporting Actor category also made history too, nominating five former Oscar winners. Robert De Niro, Alan Arkin, Christoph Waltz, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Tommy Lee Jones have all previously won.
The remaining Best Actor nominees were Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Denzel Washington and Joaquin Phoenix, who many thought would be out of the race after he made some polarizing comments about awards season. This line-up ended up snubbing John Hawkes of “The Sessions,” who was also nominated for the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild and Critics’ Choice Award.
The only nomination for “The Sessions” came in the Best Supporting Actress race, where Helen Hunt is up against a field that includes Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, Jacki Weaver and Amy Adams.
Some of the more pleasant surprises of the morning came in the Best Original Song announcement, which nominated Adele for “Skyfall” and Oscar host MacFarlane for the song “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from his film “Ted.”
“Cool, I get to go to the Oscars now,” MacFarlane said.
A full list of the nominees can be found on the Academy website, here.
What an Oscar race it’s been. I simply don’t know what’s going to happen Thursday morning when nominations are finally announced for the Academy Awards on February 24th. It’s because there have been more great movies, less time to see them and even greater shakeups in the form of controversy, voting problems, new rules and a field that simply refuses to reveal a frontrunner.
In my past On the Red Carpet columns, I’ve made predictions each week, and that list has almost never stayed consistent. These then are my final predictions, when all the buzz that’s come and gone doesn’t matter except for right now.
I’d like to think I’ve studied the tea leaves enough that I don’t have to take a shot in the dark, yet I may be as wrong about these nominees as I’ve ever been. And the way this race has been shaking up, I’ll be perfectly all right with that.
Best Picture
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdrom
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Skyfall
Dark Horse: The Master, Amour
If you’re gonna toy with us with the number of nominees, can’t there just be 12? The rules from last year stands in which there will be anywhere from five to 10 nominees, and to be eligible for a nomination, a film must get at least one first place vote.
All of these titles have their passionate supporters, and most are both box office successes and universally admired. With that logic, at least six of these are fairly certain nominees, those being “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Lincoln,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Argo,” “Les Miserables” and “Life of Pi.”
“Django Unchained” is next on the list. At first, pundits were quick to call it dead when the movie simply had not been seen, and I was the confident one. Now that’s reversed because the movie is very loved, but I’m not fully on board. The Academy does love Tarantino however, and as a movie that’s a fun, accessible studio picture and a stylish cinephile movie, it’ll find a lot of love.
Then there’s the question of the “indie spot.” Ever since the expanded Best Picture field, there’s always been room for some Sundance or Fox Searchlight darling, maybe two spaces. So will “Moonrise Kingdom” or “Beasts of the Southern Wild” get in? Will neither? My vote is a daring plea for both. Neither has gotten the critic or guild love it has really needed. SAG snubbed both, but both found room with the Producers Guild, American Film Institute and National Board of Review. Even the Golden Globes had some love for “Moonrise.” What’s more, the narrative behind “Moonrise” is that this is Wes Anderson’s best film, the film in which he grew up without sacrificing his childlike instincts. As for “Beasts,” here’s a film that has gone the distance since Sundance, and Benh Zeitlin and Quvenzhane Wallis have earned Breakthrough awards left and right.
That makes for one last spot, if we really do have 10. Logic serves that if last year could find nine nominees, surely this year can do one better. But what gets it? “The Master” was that early contender, the divisive yet awe-inspiring movie that shared the same narrative as “The Tree of Life.” “Amour” is for the older generation of Academy voters, the love story that haunts and enchants, and one that celebrates two legendary actors of old. “Skyfall” too has a powerful narrative. Not only is it a box office smash, it might just be the best Bond yet. A recent PGA nod and plenty of acting buzz has been important, despite missing all the other guilds. It’s picked up steam where a month ago it would’ve been a wish.
As of very recently, I have the inkling suspicion that the last Best Picture slot will go to “Skyfall.” It will fall in the mainstream action movie slot that in past years belonged to “District 9,” “Inception” and would’ve belonged to “The Dark Knight” in 2008. And what sets it apart is that it’s not just “another Bond movie.” Sam Mendes has given the film institutional clout that every film before it has lacked, and “Skyfall” takes Bond’s story seriously in a way never before attempted. “The Master” did not have the cultural impact “The Tree of Life” did, and in three years of an expanded Best Picture field, we still have not had a legitimate foreign film be nominated (“The Artist” doesn’t count because it’s silent), so why should “Amour” change that?
For 50 years, a Bond movie has not been nominated for Best Picture, probably for good reason, but there is no better time than now for the Academy to mend that injustice to the most durable movie institution of all time.
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington – Flight
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Dark Horse: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master, Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Performances that have been collectively nominated by the Screen Actors Guild, the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards have never failed to get an Oscar nomination. Daniel Day-Lewis, John Hawkes, Bradley Cooper, Denzel Washington and Hugh Jackman have all managed to receive all three.
So where does that leave Joaquin Phoenix? It leaves him out, officially rejected by the institution he bashed earlier this year. His performance is undeniably brilliant, but his surly attitude in this sadly political game will likely cost him the nomination he deserves.
Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Dark Horse: Naomi Watts – The Impossible, Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea, Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain are probably the only two contenders in this category who are a sure thing. “Rust and Bone” and Marion Cotillard have been losing steam. Quvenzhane Wallis has earned every Breakthrough Actress performer in sight, but little else. Naomi Watts has the weight of a nod from SAG, the Globes and the Critics’ Choice, but I attest that she is not the center of “The Impossible.”
That leaves Emmanuelle Riva and Helen Mirren. These are both seasoned veterans, but this is not Mirren’s best work. Riva picked up the coveted LA Film Critics’ prize, the National Film Critics Association award, a second runner up spot with the New York critics and still nabbed a Critics’s Choice nod. And the Academy knows she will not get this chance again.
The only other dark horse is Rachel Weisz. How many Academy voters have actually seen “The Deep Blue Sea?” It’s hard to say, and the NYFCC acclaim feels like ages ago now. Her Golden Globe nomination is the only thing keeping her kicking.
Best Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Javier Bardem – Skyfall
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained, Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
If I am in the camp that “Skyfall” will receive a nomination, then surely Javier Bardem will get one too. He is electric in the role, and the film would not be the same without him. By earning a SAG nomination, he got the boost that the critics would not give him and instead lauded on Matthew McConaughey and Leonardo DiCaprio.
But both Leo and McConaughey are already facing an uphill battle. The vote for “Django” may well be split between former winner Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson. The same can be said about McConaughey, who is likely vying for “Magic Mike,” but then the NYFCC also recognized him for “Bernie.”
This is still a vast field with a lot of contenders, but you can feel very certain about the remaining four.
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Amy Adams – The Master
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Dark Horse: Ann Dowd – Compliance, Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy, Samantha Barks – Les Miserables, Judi Dench – Skyfall
Did I ever say this was a weak field? I don’t know how I could’ve said that if I have literally four dark horse contenders. Sally Field and Anne Hathaway are locks, and Helen Hunt certainly deserves it. If “The Master” is weak, there’s a possibility that so is Amy Adams, but I’m having a hard enough time filling that fifth slot.
Ann Dowd would be the first surprise nominee in a little seen film, as she was nominated by the Critics’ Choice, the Indie Spirits and the NBR. Nicole Kidman would be the other, picking up a SAG and Globe nod, despite her film being almost universally reviled. Samantha Barks is probably as deserving for her minimal screen time in “Les Miz” as Anne Hathaway is, but the vote is bound to be split. Judi Dench has a very important role in “Skyfall,” but I’m not sure the work is as gripping as Bardem’s.
That leaves Maggie Smith, who is adored by the Academy. She has two Oscars and is on a new streak of greatness in “Downton Abbey.” There’s also a small camp of people who want to throw “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” a bone. She’s my fifth.
From left to right, Bradley Cooper, David O’Russell and Jennifer Lawrence. Image courtesy of NY Daily News
Directing
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck – Argo
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Dark Horse: Tom Hooper – Les Miserables, Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master, Michael Haneke – Amour
Save for predicting what the Best Picture nominees would be if there were only five, directors have more of a narrative behind them and their films than anyone else. This year’s crop is ripe with stories.
Spielberg is in for sure. He’s the legendary American director taking on an American legend even greater than he is. Affleck is also in for sure. People feel “The Town” and “Gone Baby Gone” have been underrated, and with “Argo,” Ben Affleck has now been cemented as a serious American filmmaker for a new generation. Not only that, as a director he’s mounted his “comeback” to the A-list. And Bigelow is surely in. Winning Best Director before was previously seen as an accolade long overdue. Now Kathryn Bigelow is a Hollywood woman with a lot of power, and it’s scaring some people.
If logic serves, “Silver Linings and Les Miz” would round out the top five, but my money is on Ang Lee to steal Tom Hooper’s spot, not O. Russell’s. Lee was working on the visionary 3-D landscape in “Life of Pi” long before people had any clue what “Avatar” was. In doing so, he took an “unfilmable” novel on the silver screen, arguably advancing what cinema is capable of. “Les Miz” is well liked, but did Hooper go above and beyond the Broadway musical? The Directors’ Guild just spoke today by snubbing O. Russell and including Hooper, but O. Russell is a big part of that film’s style and dry humor. And you know what? “Silver Linings” is just the better film.
The last two dark horses I have listed are Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Haneke. No one would question that the two are the auteurs behind their respected films, and nominating one of them would be the conciliatory way of overlooking either “The Master” or “Amour” for Best Picture. Terrence Malick got a nomination last year after all.
Best Original Screenplay
Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Amour – Michael Haneke
Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal
Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
The Master – Paul Thomas Anderson
Dark Horse: Looper – Rian Johnson, The Intouchables – Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano, Flight – John Gatins, Seven Psychopaths – Martin McDonagh
The screenplay categories are where the Academy can cover their bases in case something gets snubbed or in case they want to honor something that really doesn’t have a chance elsewhere.
That’s why “Looper” is a very powerful dark horse. It would be Rian Johnson’s first Oscar nomination, but he’s got some stiff competition from PTA, who the Academy may not respect as a director, but certainly do as a writer. “The Master” would be his fourth screenplay nomination.
The same can also be said for “The Intouchables,” “Flight” and “Seven Psychopaths,” which is specifically about the writing process.
Confusing the whole issue is the Writers’ Guild. If “Amour” and “Django” were eligible for that prize, they’d far and away be seen as strong contenders and not underdogs.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo – Chris Terrio
Lincoln – Tony Kushner, John Logan, Paul Webb
Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell
Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeithlin
The Perks of Being a Wallflower – Stephen Chbosky
Dark Horse: Les Miserables – William Nicholson, The Sessions – Ben Lewin, Life of Pi – David Magee
I said in my previous column that “Life of Pi” is not remembered for it’s dialogue, and it’s that very reason why I think it’ll be overlooked in place of the slightly more poetic “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” a film that captures the beauty of the world and the rugged dialect of the bayou.
My fifth pick then is “The Perks of Being a Wallflower.” Remember when “Precious” won because it had “based on the novel by Sapphire” in the title? Well what do you think The Academy thinks about an author adapting and directing his own cult novel? “Perks” has performed very well with the critics groups and even got a WGA nod. It’s got a much better shot than something like “Les Miz,” a story pretty faithfully adapted from a play. Such devotion prevented the nominations of “Rabbit Hole” and “Carnage” in previous years.
Additional Categories
Below the jump I look at the technical categories in the race, which I’m not fully equipped to predict, but play ball with me here. Maybe I’ll have a good prediction streak.
If all serves from these tech categories, here’s my overall count for Oscar nominations per film.
Didn’t anyone get the memo that cinema is dead? 2012 came into greatness notoriously late in the year (if not trickling into next year), but the amount of quality that came out of big budget blockbusters, prestigious Oscar bait and critical darlings is too convincing to say that TV continued to dominate the cultural conversation this year. I can be cynical, but I’d rather just celebrate the movies with a generous round up of everything I hope you’re talking about and just waiting to discover.
Paul Thomas Anderson has me in his control. “The Master” is elegant, ambiguous, malleable and powerful. With Scientology as only the setting, it’s a difficult, dream-like film open to interpretation, but its strongest themes are the power and reach of the human mind and the capabilities of man. Joaquin Phoenix and Phillip Seymour Hoffman in the two best performances of the year are titans at war, one filled with unpredictable rage, repressed sexuality and energy, the other a deafening force of eloquence and conviction. Mihai Malaimare Jr.’s 70mm photography ripples with color and fantasy. Jonny Greenwood’s score pulses with animalistic alacrity. Watching “The Master” and assigning it meaning is a testament to the richness and complexity of mankind.
If “Life of Pi” cannot make you believe in God, it at the very least can provide the faith that there is beauty and excitement in the world. Ang Lee’s innovative use of 3-D places us on an infinite plain of existence, one that has stunning natural beauty, visceral thrills, comedic charms, emotional poignancy and none of the Disney-fied cuteness. Pi’s sea voyage is pure visual poetry that resonates with you on a deeply spiritual level.
Perhaps no director today has a more distinct visual and tonal style than Wes Anderson, but “Moonrise Kingdom” is his most personal and close to the heart by far. Anderson funnels his love of classical music, the French New Wave and low rent spectacle into a magical film about kids living beyond their age. It finds the beauty of young love in a joyous, colorful and hilarious art house movie that anyone can relate to.
“Benh Zeitlin’s “Beasts of the Southern Wild” is a wondrous, poetic, beautiful film about all the things humans can do when we stop acting like people afraid of nature and start living like brave beasts that become one with the world. It’s about color, light and discovery. It’s about being loved by the world, loving it back and understanding how to truly live. It’s about facing the other beasts of the world, and doing it head on.” (Excerpt from my review)
When a boy is abandoned by his father at an orphanage, he spends months blindly fighting to get back to him while rejecting the love and affection of others. The French film “The Kid With a Bike” is about the attachments we place on the things we love and the unexpected consequences that come of them. The Dardenne brothers’ simple and rugged film digs deep in its grainy and grizzled surface to find the sentimentality within.
At 50 years old, James Bond has never looked better. “Skyfall” marks the first time we’ve asked about Bond’s past and questioned his future, but we do so in by far the most exciting and stylish action movie of the year. Roger Deakins’s digital cinematography turns Bond’s fist fights into elegant shadow ballets, and Javier Bardem’s snake-like sexuality and compulsions make for some of the finest screen villainy this century.
Nearly 20 percent of all women who have served in the armed forces are sexually assaulted during their line of duty. That’s the horrifying truth at the heart of “The Invisible War,” a documentary that for that statistic alone is essential viewing for anyone in the military. But more so, Kirby Dick’s film is moving in its unification of women (and men!) who once all considered themselves an army of one. What sacrifices are we really asking our soldiers to make for our country?
Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” is the stirring American vision we deserve. A remarkably authentic account of the effort to abolish slavery, the story of “Lincoln” is a war of words, not worlds, yet remains as intense and rousing as any action movie this year. Daniel Day-Lewis melts into the visage of our 16th President while making the role all his own, and the monumental performances of Tommy Lee Jones and Sally Field anchor the best screen ensemble of the year.
Destined to be an action sci-fi classic, “Looper” accomplishes the impossible by being cool and accessible while staying dark and emotional. Director Rian Johnson makes the time travel conceit something other than an exercise in futility, devoting more attention to the film’s cocky, narcissistic heroes (Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Bruce Willis, his best dramatic work since “The Sixth Sense”), who are really both the same person. “Looper” is even a powerful forewarning of our civilization’s decline into more and more crime and violence, a nuance that along with its lens flares, canted angles and impressive visual effects, make it refreshingly modern.
10. Rust and Bone
“Rust and Bone” is a powerful and aggressively emotional film about people who are incomplete. A French romance of imperfect characters who are mending physically but damaged emotionally, Marion Cotillard and Matthias Schoenaerts give tough, often unsentimental performances that are not without humor and heart. Director Jacques Audiard (“A Prophet”) finds a mix between moments and visuals that feel stark and lonely, such as a lengthy wide shot of Cotillard lying in a hospital bed, and those between Cotillard and a whale, that are elegant statements of forming a bond.
Honorable Mention – The Turin Horse
Looking and feeling the way “The Turin Horse” does, one would believe it is a tortured, yet essential classic belonging to another time. But it came out in 2012 and may be the last film from the elderly Hungarian master Bela Tarr. It is bleak and draining beyond belief. In black and white and with only 30 shots, it is an excruciating sit. It is almost completely empty of activity, plot or dialogue. It will make you sick at the sight of baked potatoes. And by the end of it, you will feel as if the world is ending. Yet to call it anything other than spellbinding is a gross understatement.
I was tempted to just post this article on Tuesday, because this week has been HUGE for Oscar news. Three categories shortlisted and the first of the critics’ awards dropped; that’s a lot to cover.
New York Film Critics Circle Announce 2012 Awards
I wrote more on the Oscar chances for all of these movies now that the NYFCC has had their say at a new blog called The Artifice. Just know that “Zero Dark Thirty” is now the movie to beat, McConaughey and Weisz have earned a new life, and “The Master” is facing an increasingly uphill battle at a nomination. (via nyfcc.com) UPDATE: Turns out the movies that do not appear on this list didn’t do as badly as everyone expected. The NYFCC has a complicated ballot voting system to determine winners in each category, and this year just about every category was taken to multiple rounds of voting to determine a consensus, proving that 2012 has a wide array of great movies with supporters in every camp. In fact, “Lincoln,” which performed so handsomely here, actually placed fourth on the overall ballot for Best Picture, behind “The Master” and “Moonrise Kingdom.” (via J. Hoberman)
Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner – Lincoln
Best Actress: Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress: Sally Field – Lincoln
Best Supporting Actor: Matthew McConaughey – Bernie, Magic Mike
Best Cinematographer: Greig Fraser – Zero Dark Thirty
Best Animated Film: Frankenweenie
Best Non-Fiction Film: The Central Park Five
Best Foreign Film: Amour
Best First Film: David France – How to Survive a Plague
Documentary Feature category shortlisted
Maybe normal people think it’s crazy that documentaries, of all things, could make some movie buffs so up in arms. And yet that is the case every year when the Documentary Branch of the Academy announces their shortlist. Now granted, last year these people snubbed Werner Herzog, Errol Morris and Steve James, so it was unlikely there was going to be even greater fervor this year. But, despite me having seen only a handful, the number of films I’ve heard of on this list of 15 and the number still absent speak to how great a year it’s been for documentaries. All this despite the branch’s head Michael Moore instating new rules, such as the requirement to get your movie screened in New York and L.A. and reviewed by The New York Times. Here’s the list: (via Oscars.com)
“Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry”
“Bully”
“Chasing Ice”
“Detropia”
“Ethel”
“5 Broken Cameras”
“The Gatekeepers”
“The House I Live In”
“How to Survive a Plague”
“The Imposter”
“The Invisible War”
“Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”
“Searching for Sugar Man”
“This is Not a Film”
“The Waiting Room”
So missing from this list is “The Central Park Five,” which if you were paying attention above just won the NYFCC honors, “West of Memphis,” “The Queen of Versailles,” “Paul Williams Still Alive,” “Marley,” “Jiro Dreams of Sushi,” “Samsara” and “Marina Ambrovic: The Artist is Present,” which, admittedly, could be a short list all its own. This list of 15 could be a lot worse than it is, and the few that have been snubbed won’t have any trouble getting seen. This is me trying to not get too angry.
Visual Effects category shortlisted
The Academy announced on Thursday the list of 10 potential nominees in the Visual Effects category. The full list is below: (via Oscars.com)
“The Amazing Spider-Man”
“Cloud Atlas”
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“John Carter”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
“Prometheus”
“Skyfall”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
You’ll immediately notice the snub of “The Impossible,” which has an unbelievably lifelike depiction of a tsunami hitting Thailand. My guess is that “The Impossible’s” sequence, while dazzling, is just a small part of an otherwise effects free movie, thus paving the way instead for these 10 gargantuan Hollywood blockbusters. “Snow White,” “John Carter” and “Spider-Man” may all be surprises, but more pleasant surprises would’ve been something like “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “The Grey,” “The Cabin in the Woods,” “Looper,” “Flight” or even “Chronicle” from way back in February.
Best Live Action Short Film Category shortlisted
This may come as a shock, but the Live Action short category is actually news! The news here is that the shortlist has a record 11 films on it due to a tie in the voting. That won’t mean any more or less nominees, still anywhere from three to five, but it’s something. The only names you’ll recognize however are Ron and Bryce Dallas Howard for their short film “when you find me.” Good luck seeing any of these. (via Oscars.com)
“A Fábrica (The Factory),” Aly Muritiba, director (Grafo Audiovisual)
“Asad,” Bryan Buckley, director, and Mino Jarjoura, producer (Hungry Man)
“Buzkashi Boys,” Sam French, director, and Ariel Nasr, producer (Afghan Film Project)
“Curfew,” Shawn Christensen, director (Fuzzy Logic Pictures)
“Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw),” Tom Van Avermaet, director, and Ellen De Waele, producer (Serendipity Films)
“Henry,” Yan England, director (Yan England)
“Kiruna-Kigali,” Goran Kapetanovic, director (Hepp Film AB)
“The Night Shift Belongs to the Stars,” Silvia Bizio and Paola Porrini Bisson, producers (Oh! Pen LLC)
“9meter,” Anders Walther, director, and Tivi Magnusson, producer (M & M Productions A/S)
“Salar,” Nicholas Greene, director, and Julie Buck, producer (Nicholas Greene)
“when you find me,” Ron Howard, executive producer, and Bryce Dallas Howard, director (Freestyle Picture Company)
“Amour” sweeps European Film Awards
It isn’t so often a Palme D’Or winner can actually devour every other award its up for. “Amour” won Best European Picture, Director for Michael Haneke, Actor for Jean-Louis Trintignant and Actress for Emmanuelle Riva. That’s why this is increasingly looking like an even bigger Oscar contender than some are predicting. For what it’s worth, Haneke has already won Best Director for both “The White Ribbon” and “Cache.” (via Indiewire)
The photography in Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” often paints our country’s 16th President in stylized obscurity, the beautiful backlighting casting Honest Abe in shadows of his own history. It’s a movie that fully embraces our American virtues, and yet for all we thought we knew about Lincoln suggests there is more to the man than the icon.
The Lincoln we see here is not the towering man with the deep, resounding voice that can carry across a battlefield. This is a Lincoln suffering from nightmares, giving piggyback rides to his youngest son, wrapping himself in an old blanket, telling cute stories with his soothing, high-pitched whisper of a voice and furrowing his brow as he deals with the impasse of war and the effort to abolish slavery. This is perhaps not the man we imagined in preschool but the man that was and the man who still portrayed an immense presence.
When screenwriter Tony Kushner (“Munich,” “Angels in America”) approached Spielberg with an adaptation of Doris Kearns Goodwin’s biography, it was a sprawling 500-page script on Lincoln’s life. Spielberg focuses in on the short period between April of 1864 and January 1865 when the Civil War is coming to a close, the Senate has already approved the 13th Constitutional Amendment and the Democrats in the House threaten to vote it down.
Lincoln’s battle is a powerful paradox. End the war and readmit the Confederacy and they will certainly block the law to end slavery. Fail to pursue peace and the swing votes in Congress may turn against him. And yet if slavery is abolished and done so before fighting resumes in the spring, the war is over, as the South has nothing more to fight for. Their fight to get it passed is a war of words, not of worlds, and “Lincoln” is approached as a stately performance piece, not a war epic.
It is more theatrical than cinematic, but Spielberg does the job of emblazoning these big ideas onto the silver screen. For all its talking, “Lincoln” is a movie of action. Their Congress gets more done in two and half hours than ours did in two and a half years, and the scenes of debate and voting are invigorating moments of politics, racism, boastfulness and insight.
And because all these historical figures are in their own way larger than life, Spielberg has assembled a cast that is just as impressive. Daniel Day-Lewis is remarkable as Lincoln. At times, Lincoln is calm and without words for all the harried politicians in his cabinet. Day-Lewis seems almost detached from the scene, but he slowly builds and shows why Lincoln was so arresting. Sometimes the end to his story is a punch line, like about how a man loathed the image of George Washington, and at others he unleashes philosophical truths of equality and common sense with the greatest of ease. Unlike some Day-Lewis performances, he melds into this role and never proclaims he is acting. Sometimes he finds the best notes when he’s just being a father, child on his knee in a rocking chair and revealing his deep humanity.
Then there’s Sally Field as Lincoln’s wife Mary Todd, a frazzled, fiery woman of great hidden power. Field above all is the one who sets the film’s stakes, heaping the burden of passing the amendment with the threat of the death of their oldest son (Joseph Gordon-Levitt) and her admitting herself to a mental institution. Watch Field as she greets guests at their White House party, holding up a long line to speak more candidly with some of the key Congressmen. She appears at once absent minded and in full control, figuratively shaking hands with a powerful grip but really not exerting any pressure at all.
But best of all is perhaps Tommy Lee Jones as Thaddeus Stevens, the Republican representative from Pennsylvania. In one pivotal Congressional scene, he goes against his belief that all men are literally created equal and proclaims that all men should be equal under the law, regardless of race or, as he says to his vocal Democratic opponent, character. The beauty of Jones’s performance is that although his dialogue is eloquent and verbose language of the times, Jones can still deliver such lines with the same blunt force he does in all of his roles.
Spielberg and Kushner have put a great deal of effort into recreating every period detail as historically accurate. We get a movie of remarkable production design in stunningly authentic and old-fashioned clarity. But “Lincoln” does still feel like a movie for the modern day. He jokingly asks, “Since when has the Republican Party unanimously supported anything,” and draws startling parallels between Obama and Lincoln by observing that many Democrats viewed Lincoln as something of a tyrant.
By ending on its bittersweet note, it leaves us with the idea that some ideas and possibilities must be withheld now to achieve prosperity in the future. There may be some wet eyes as the visage of Lincoln burns powerfully in a gas lamp during a closing shot.
“Lincoln” may not always be the rousingly patriotic portrait of Lincoln we imagined, but it’s the American vision we deserve.
I needed to find a way to write about the Oscars. I’m constantly seeing news and updates in everything I read and everyone I follow on Twitter, so I know what’s happening almost as soon as they do.
But I don’t live in New York or LA. I don’t have press access to early film screenings. I can’t do more than follow distributors on Facebook and Twitter to get the same updates the pros do.
I’m viewing all this second hand, from just off the red carpet.
But that doesn’t mean I can’t share everything I’ve heard, and that doesn’t mean I don’t have my own take on all that’s going on.
So what I’ve decided to do is start a weekly column where I round up all the Oscar news I’ve found relevant in the past week and share it with my own spin. It’s the least I can do.
Up Till Now
Since this is my first “Off the Red Carpet” column, I feel it’s necessary to catch everyone up on all that’s happened in the race so far.
“Amour” won the Palme D’Or at Cannes, making it only the second time a director has won with two consecutive films. Director Michael Haneke won with his previous film, “The White Ribbon,” back in 2008. That film was nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, but came home empty handed. This one on the other hand is a contender for Picture, Actor, Actress, Director, Foreign Film and possibly more. It’s the story of an elderly couple of music teachers who is torn apart when one of them suffers a stroke.
The Oscar nominations have been moved up to the early date of Thursday, January 10, 2013, meaning that the nominations are in fact before the Golden Globes. This could prove troublesome for movies being released late in the year, but it’ll keep buzzy movies in the conversation just when they need to be.
David O. Russell’s “Silver Linings Playbook” won the People’s Choice Prize at the Toronto International Film Festival, making it the new front-runner for Best Picture.
It’s pronounced “que-ven-zha-ne.” Get to know the name.
Seth McFarlane of “Family Guy” and “Ted” was selected as this year’s Oscar host. Yes yes yes, younger demo, he was good on SNL, Hollywood insider, blah de blah. Just please no racist “Beasts of the Southern Wild” jokes from a talking blender. Continue reading “Off the Red Carpet – Week of 10/3 – 10/10”
