2013 Oscars: Final Predictions

I just finished watching a Katie Couric special edition of “20/20” in which they talked about everything that makes the Oscars iconic, but none of the reasons why I actually care about the awards. Hearing about Bjork’s swan dress is cute, but I’m in this for the movies.

Every year I come up with elaborate reasons why this year’s winner will mean something. For “The Artist” it was that even a silent, foreign, black and white comedy could win Best Picture and make people interested in a great form of movie history for just a little while. For “The King’s Speech” it was that the love for Old Hollywood was alive and well, even if I was pulling for the generational landmark that would’ve been a victory for “The Social Network.” And for “The Hurt Locker,” it signified a turning point in our view of the campaign in the Middle East, as well as a long denied achievement for women everywhere, which really is something to cheer about.

And yet just as I study every nominee and understand every nuance of the race, all of that is forgotten as quickly as the next year, and the only things that are left are the great movies themselves.

I think this year’s Oscars matter because above all, they will honor a lot of great movies, more than in most years. I may not think “Argo” is the best movie of the year, nor is my pick even nominated, but I think that whatever wins, it will be a victory for quality (except for “Les Miz” obviously).

Here then are my final predictions for what will take home gold on Oscar night. This year has been so exciting, so tumultuous, so long and so controversial that if I have to make one correct prediction, it’s that I will be wrong… possibly a lot.

Argo Ben Affleck

Best Picture

  • Argo
  • Lincoln
  • Silver Linings Playbook
  • Life of Pi
  • Django Unchained
  • Zero Dark Thirty
  • Amour
  • Les Miserables
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild

I don’t think I ever wanted to admit that there was going to be a sure fire winner for Best Picture, and I don’t think I ever could. The “Argo” freight train of success is still relatively fresh news. A lot has happened since it premiered at Telluride back in September, and there was a time just six weeks ago when nominations were announced that it looked to be a dead and gone afterthought. Now it has swept every major guild prize and award in sight, and it is poised to make history no matter what happens. All the comparisons that have been made to explain its victory in the context of past winners will be erased because its victory (or loss) will be completely unprecedented. Pundits will now point to it as the example.

If it wins, it will be because it is a great film, but also because it is an agreeable film that was able to weather the storm of controversy and barrier to entry better than any other.

“Lincoln” hardly seems formidable, and in fact “Life of Pi” or “Silver Linings Playbook” look even stronger with more recent wins in the bag, but it remains an even greater film in my view and is still, on paper, the predictable Oscar winner.

Brian’s Pick: Argo

Dark Horse: Lincoln, followed by Silver Linings Playbook, then Life of Pi

Should Win: Life of Pi Continue reading “2013 Oscars: Final Predictions”

Amour

Michael Haneke’s “Amour” is a film that requires no sentiment or tears shed on its behalf. That’s because for films about mortality, few are as quiet, observant, simple and without incident as “Amour.” And yet Haneke, known for his solemn, chilling art films like “Cache” and “The White Ribbon,” has made a bleak masterpiece that does away with big, philosophical ideas and focuses in on the beautiful love story at its core.

“Your concern is no use to me.” That’s Georges’s (Jean-Louis Trintignant) message to his daughter Eva (Isabelle Huppert) as his wife Anne (Emmanuelle Riva) lies on her deathbed. What use does it serve, he asks his daughter, for Eva to worry when her only solutions are more unsuccessful surgeries, more time under life support in a nursing home and more pain?

Haneke’s film skillfully observes that death is a part of life, but it’s the general agony that disturbs the most, not the absence of transparency into this woman’s suffering, and not the lack of drama. “Amour” is a love story, one about the sheer burden of keeping a love or marriage together, but it’s a far stretch from the sappy tearjerkers of the world. This art film unsympathetically challenges this romance and remains a distant observer to their tireless passion. Continue reading “Amour”

85th Oscar Nominations Announced, Lincoln leads with 12

“Lincoln” leads the 2012 Oscar nominees with 12 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director Steven Spielberg and Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis.

Emma Stone and Seth MacFarlane announced Thursday morning from the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences that there would be nine nominees for Best Picture this year in the 85th Academy Awards.

Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” led the pack with 12 nominations, followed by Ang Lee’s “Life of Pi” with 11. Including “Lincoln” and “Life of Pi,” the nine nominees for Best Picture are “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Argo,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Django Unchained,” “Amour” and “Les Miserables.”

The morning lacked a surprise, almost trolling nomination like “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” last year, but there were plenty of unexpected snubs.

In the directing category, both “Argo” and “Zero Dark Thirty” were thought to be something of front runners in the Oscar race, but both Ben Affleck and former winner Kathryn Bigelow were left out, leaving room for Michael Haneke of “Amour” and Benh Zeitlin of “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” The remaining nominees were David O. Russell, Spielberg and Lee. Both Affleck and Bigelow were just nominated for the Directors Guild Award, which has the best track record in predicting the ultimate Oscar winner.

For Best Actress, the Academy created history twice by nominating the youngest and oldest actresses in the race. Emmanuelle Riva, 85, and Quvenzhane Wallis, 9, were both nominated for “Amour” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild” alongside Jennifer Lawrence, Naomi Watts and Jessica Chastain.

The Best Supporting Actor category also made history too, nominating five former Oscar winners. Robert De Niro, Alan Arkin, Christoph Waltz, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Tommy Lee Jones have all previously won.

The remaining Best Actor nominees were Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Denzel Washington and Joaquin Phoenix, who many thought would be out of the race after he made some polarizing comments about awards season. This line-up ended up snubbing John Hawkes of “The Sessions,” who was also nominated for the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild and Critics’ Choice Award.

The only nomination for “The Sessions” came in the Best Supporting Actress race, where Helen Hunt is up against a field that includes Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, Jacki Weaver and Amy Adams.

Some of the more pleasant surprises of the morning came in the Best Original Song announcement, which nominated Adele for “Skyfall” and Oscar host MacFarlane for the song “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from his film “Ted.”

“Cool, I get to go to the Oscars now,” MacFarlane said.

A full list of the nominees can be found on the Academy website, here.

Off The Red Carpet: Week of 11/28 – 12/5

I was tempted to just post this article on Tuesday, because this week has been HUGE for Oscar news. Three categories shortlisted and the first of the critics’ awards dropped; that’s a lot to cover.

New York Film Critics Circle Announce 2012 Awards

I wrote more on the Oscar chances for all of these movies now that the NYFCC has had their say at a new blog called The Artifice. Just know that “Zero Dark Thirty” is now the movie to beat, McConaughey and Weisz have earned a new life, and “The Master” is facing an increasingly uphill battle at a nomination. (via nyfcc.com) UPDATE: Turns out the movies that do not appear on this list didn’t do as badly as everyone expected. The NYFCC has a complicated ballot voting system to determine winners in each category, and this year just about every category was taken to multiple rounds of voting to determine a consensus, proving that 2012 has a wide array of great movies with supporters in every camp. In fact, “Lincoln,” which performed so handsomely here, actually placed fourth on the overall ballot for Best Picture, behind “The Master” and “Moonrise Kingdom.” (via J. Hoberman)

Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty

Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner – Lincoln

Best Actress: Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress: Sally Field – Lincoln

Best Supporting Actor: Matthew McConaughey – Bernie, Magic Mike

Best Cinematographer: Greig Fraser – Zero Dark Thirty

Best Animated Film: Frankenweenie

Best Non-Fiction Film: The Central Park Five

Best Foreign Film: Amour

Best First Film: David France – How to Survive a Plague

searching-for-sugar-man-main

Documentary Feature category shortlisted

Maybe normal people think it’s crazy that documentaries, of all things, could make some movie buffs so up in arms. And yet that is the case every year when the Documentary Branch of the Academy announces their shortlist. Now granted, last year these people snubbed Werner Herzog, Errol Morris and Steve James, so it was unlikely there was going to be even greater fervor this year. But, despite me having seen only a handful, the number of films I’ve heard of on this list of 15 and the number still absent speak to how great a year it’s been for documentaries. All this despite the branch’s head Michael Moore instating new rules, such as the requirement to get your movie screened in New York and L.A. and reviewed by The New York Times. Here’s the list: (via Oscars.com)

“Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry”

“Bully”

“Chasing Ice”

“Detropia”

“Ethel”

“5 Broken Cameras”

“The Gatekeepers”

“The House I Live In”

“How to Survive a Plague”

“The Imposter”

“The Invisible War”

“Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”

“Searching for Sugar Man”

“This is Not a Film”

“The Waiting Room”

So missing from this list is “The Central Park Five,” which if you were paying attention above just won the NYFCC honors, “West of Memphis,” “The Queen of Versailles,” “Paul Williams Still Alive,” “Marley,” “Jiro Dreams of Sushi,” “Samsara” and “Marina Ambrovic: The Artist is Present,” which, admittedly, could be a short list all its own. This list of 15 could be a lot worse than it is, and the few that have been snubbed won’t have any trouble getting seen. This is me trying to not get too angry.

SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN

Visual Effects category shortlisted

The Academy announced on Thursday the list of 10 potential nominees in the Visual Effects category. The full list is below: (via Oscars.com)

“The Amazing Spider-Man”
“Cloud Atlas”
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“John Carter”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
“Prometheus”
“Skyfall”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”

You’ll immediately notice the snub of “The Impossible,” which has an unbelievably lifelike depiction of a tsunami hitting Thailand. My guess is that “The Impossible’s” sequence, while dazzling, is just a small part of an otherwise effects free movie, thus paving the way instead for these 10 gargantuan Hollywood blockbusters. “Snow White,” “John Carter” and “Spider-Man” may all be surprises, but more pleasant surprises would’ve been something like “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “The Grey,” “The Cabin in the Woods,” “Looper,” “Flight” or even “Chronicle” from way back in February.

Best Live Action Short Film Category shortlisted

This may come as a shock, but the Live Action short category is actually news! The news here is that the shortlist has a record 11 films on it due to a tie in the voting. That won’t mean any more or less nominees, still anywhere from three to five, but it’s something. The only names you’ll recognize however are Ron and Bryce Dallas Howard for their short film “when you find me.” Good luck seeing any of these. (via Oscars.com)

“A Fábrica (The Factory),” Aly Muritiba, director (Grafo Audiovisual)

“Asad,” Bryan Buckley, director, and Mino Jarjoura, producer (Hungry Man)

“Buzkashi Boys,” Sam French, director, and Ariel Nasr, producer (Afghan Film Project)

“Curfew,” Shawn Christensen, director (Fuzzy Logic Pictures)

“Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw),” Tom Van Avermaet, director, and Ellen De Waele, producer (Serendipity Films)

“Henry,” Yan England, director (Yan England)

“Kiruna-Kigali,” Goran Kapetanovic, director (Hepp Film AB)

“The Night Shift Belongs to the Stars,” Silvia Bizio and Paola Porrini Bisson, producers (Oh! Pen LLC)

“9meter,” Anders Walther, director, and Tivi Magnusson, producer (M & M Productions A/S)

“Salar,” Nicholas Greene, director, and Julie Buck, producer (Nicholas Greene)

“when you find me,” Ron Howard, executive producer, and Bryce Dallas Howard, director (Freestyle Picture Company)

“Amour” sweeps European Film Awards

It isn’t so often a Palme D’Or winner can actually devour every other award its up for. “Amour” won Best European Picture, Director for Michael Haneke, Actor for Jean-Louis Trintignant and Actress for Emmanuelle Riva. That’s why this is increasingly looking like an even bigger Oscar contender than some are predicting. For what it’s worth, Haneke has already won Best Director for both “The White Ribbon” and “Cache.” (via Indiewire)

Week 7 Predictions Continue reading “Off The Red Carpet: Week of 11/28 – 12/5”

The White Ribbon

Rebellion can be as large as a barn being set on fire or as small as a toddler pushing a bowl off a dinner table. Michael Haneke’s “The White Ribbon” views rebellion at its conception in a small, rural town in Germany just before the dawn of World War I. His film is a dark parable for how evil can be the precursor to an even greater evil. Sometimes, it’s just human nature.

The slow ripple effects of silent unrest begin to simmer when a doctor (Rainer Bock) riding his horse topples over an unseen wire. It looks to be an accident, and there are no suspects, but this wire did not get there on its own. Nothing this serious or mysterious has ever happened here before, and everyone begins to ask questions. The doctor’s son is the first to learn the blunt truths of life. He asks his sister what “dead” is, and she can’t bring herself to lie that she, his father and he will eventually die. She also confesses their mother didn’t just go on a long trip. When he pushes that bowl off the table, such an act never meant so much.

This is not the only incident. A mother falls through a decrepit roof while on the job, and the family believes that the Baron who runs the town is responsible. One of the sons retaliates by vandalizing the Baron’s (Ulrich Tukur) private harvest of crops, but there’s even more suspicion when the Baron’s son turns up tortured.

This is a patriarchal society, as was common in the early 1910s, and it’s a society of quiet, bleak obedience to elders and to the Lord. Thus everyone is on edge when the town is stricken with equally quiet mysteries.

To keep everyone in line, one father and the town’s Pastor (Burghart Klaussner) ties a white ribbon on his children’s sleeve to remind them to stay pure and good. His guilt and mistrust of his children is worse than any abusive father. There’s one devastating scene in which he punishes his children by paddling them with a cane. It’s not enough that the child’s siblings must watch, but the boy must bring his father his tool of destruction. The moment takes place behind a closed door to us because we must know how confined and repressed this society is.

Many critics have said “The White Ribbon” is a film about the start of fascism, but Haneke is content with the truth that the small acts of rebellion and assertions to authority are the start of something. The Whodunnit is not as intriguing as the slow burn to something bigger.

That’s because Haneke’s film is wonderfully atmospheric It’s been converted to black and white from color film stock, and the effect is starkly monochrome. There is no color in this antiquated society. No one shoots a funeral the way Haneke does here, with the camera as distant and centered as can be to the mourners, and it’s just one of the many stunning landscapes Haneke creates with his camera.

And yet for all its subdued pacing, “The White Ribbon” is a film of immense gravity. The Doctor’s blunt disgust with his mistress is as heartless a thing to say to a woman as anything I’ve ever heard. The Pastor’s constructed judgments about his son’s masturbation is as surprising and tough to hear as any other parental scolding. The standards of this town are grave, and the performances by Bock and Klaussner equal the film’s severity.

“The White Ribbon” won the Palme D’Or at Cannes back in 2009, and now Haneke has done it again with his follow-up film “Amour.” It beat some powerhouse films including “Inglourious Basterds,” “Fish Tank,” A Prophet” and “Gomorrah.” It likely resounded with the Cannes crowd because it connects on a primal level. It’s a dark film with a scary truth, and it’s mesmerizing to watch.