What an Oscar race it’s been. I simply don’t know what’s going to happen Thursday morning when nominations are finally announced for the Academy Awards on February 24th. It’s because there have been more great movies, less time to see them and even greater shakeups in the form of controversy, voting problems, new rules and a field that simply refuses to reveal a frontrunner.
In my past On the Red Carpet columns, I’ve made predictions each week, and that list has almost never stayed consistent. These then are my final predictions, when all the buzz that’s come and gone doesn’t matter except for right now.
I’d like to think I’ve studied the tea leaves enough that I don’t have to take a shot in the dark, yet I may be as wrong about these nominees as I’ve ever been. And the way this race has been shaking up, I’ll be perfectly all right with that.
Best Picture
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdrom
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Skyfall
Dark Horse: The Master, Amour
If you’re gonna toy with us with the number of nominees, can’t there just be 12? The rules from last year stands in which there will be anywhere from five to 10 nominees, and to be eligible for a nomination, a film must get at least one first place vote.
All of these titles have their passionate supporters, and most are both box office successes and universally admired. With that logic, at least six of these are fairly certain nominees, those being “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Lincoln,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Argo,” “Les Miserables” and “Life of Pi.”
“Django Unchained” is next on the list. At first, pundits were quick to call it dead when the movie simply had not been seen, and I was the confident one. Now that’s reversed because the movie is very loved, but I’m not fully on board. The Academy does love Tarantino however, and as a movie that’s a fun, accessible studio picture and a stylish cinephile movie, it’ll find a lot of love.
Then there’s the question of the “indie spot.” Ever since the expanded Best Picture field, there’s always been room for some Sundance or Fox Searchlight darling, maybe two spaces. So will “Moonrise Kingdom” or “Beasts of the Southern Wild” get in? Will neither? My vote is a daring plea for both. Neither has gotten the critic or guild love it has really needed. SAG snubbed both, but both found room with the Producers Guild, American Film Institute and National Board of Review. Even the Golden Globes had some love for “Moonrise.” What’s more, the narrative behind “Moonrise” is that this is Wes Anderson’s best film, the film in which he grew up without sacrificing his childlike instincts. As for “Beasts,” here’s a film that has gone the distance since Sundance, and Benh Zeitlin and Quvenzhane Wallis have earned Breakthrough awards left and right.
That makes for one last spot, if we really do have 10. Logic serves that if last year could find nine nominees, surely this year can do one better. But what gets it? “The Master” was that early contender, the divisive yet awe-inspiring movie that shared the same narrative as “The Tree of Life.” “Amour” is for the older generation of Academy voters, the love story that haunts and enchants, and one that celebrates two legendary actors of old. “Skyfall” too has a powerful narrative. Not only is it a box office smash, it might just be the best Bond yet. A recent PGA nod and plenty of acting buzz has been important, despite missing all the other guilds. It’s picked up steam where a month ago it would’ve been a wish.
As of very recently, I have the inkling suspicion that the last Best Picture slot will go to “Skyfall.” It will fall in the mainstream action movie slot that in past years belonged to “District 9,” “Inception” and would’ve belonged to “The Dark Knight” in 2008. And what sets it apart is that it’s not just “another Bond movie.” Sam Mendes has given the film institutional clout that every film before it has lacked, and “Skyfall” takes Bond’s story seriously in a way never before attempted. “The Master” did not have the cultural impact “The Tree of Life” did, and in three years of an expanded Best Picture field, we still have not had a legitimate foreign film be nominated (“The Artist” doesn’t count because it’s silent), so why should “Amour” change that?
For 50 years, a Bond movie has not been nominated for Best Picture, probably for good reason, but there is no better time than now for the Academy to mend that injustice to the most durable movie institution of all time.
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington – Flight
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Dark Horse: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master, Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Performances that have been collectively nominated by the Screen Actors Guild, the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards have never failed to get an Oscar nomination. Daniel Day-Lewis, John Hawkes, Bradley Cooper, Denzel Washington and Hugh Jackman have all managed to receive all three.
So where does that leave Joaquin Phoenix? It leaves him out, officially rejected by the institution he bashed earlier this year. His performance is undeniably brilliant, but his surly attitude in this sadly political game will likely cost him the nomination he deserves.
Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Dark Horse: Naomi Watts – The Impossible, Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea, Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain are probably the only two contenders in this category who are a sure thing. “Rust and Bone” and Marion Cotillard have been losing steam. Quvenzhane Wallis has earned every Breakthrough Actress performer in sight, but little else. Naomi Watts has the weight of a nod from SAG, the Globes and the Critics’ Choice, but I attest that she is not the center of “The Impossible.”
That leaves Emmanuelle Riva and Helen Mirren. These are both seasoned veterans, but this is not Mirren’s best work. Riva picked up the coveted LA Film Critics’ prize, the National Film Critics Association award, a second runner up spot with the New York critics and still nabbed a Critics’s Choice nod. And the Academy knows she will not get this chance again.
The only other dark horse is Rachel Weisz. How many Academy voters have actually seen “The Deep Blue Sea?” It’s hard to say, and the NYFCC acclaim feels like ages ago now. Her Golden Globe nomination is the only thing keeping her kicking.
Best Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Javier Bardem – Skyfall
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained, Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
If I am in the camp that “Skyfall” will receive a nomination, then surely Javier Bardem will get one too. He is electric in the role, and the film would not be the same without him. By earning a SAG nomination, he got the boost that the critics would not give him and instead lauded on Matthew McConaughey and Leonardo DiCaprio.
But both Leo and McConaughey are already facing an uphill battle. The vote for “Django” may well be split between former winner Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson. The same can be said about McConaughey, who is likely vying for “Magic Mike,” but then the NYFCC also recognized him for “Bernie.”
This is still a vast field with a lot of contenders, but you can feel very certain about the remaining four.
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Amy Adams – The Master
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Dark Horse: Ann Dowd – Compliance, Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy, Samantha Barks – Les Miserables, Judi Dench – Skyfall
Did I ever say this was a weak field? I don’t know how I could’ve said that if I have literally four dark horse contenders. Sally Field and Anne Hathaway are locks, and Helen Hunt certainly deserves it. If “The Master” is weak, there’s a possibility that so is Amy Adams, but I’m having a hard enough time filling that fifth slot.
Ann Dowd would be the first surprise nominee in a little seen film, as she was nominated by the Critics’ Choice, the Indie Spirits and the NBR. Nicole Kidman would be the other, picking up a SAG and Globe nod, despite her film being almost universally reviled. Samantha Barks is probably as deserving for her minimal screen time in “Les Miz” as Anne Hathaway is, but the vote is bound to be split. Judi Dench has a very important role in “Skyfall,” but I’m not sure the work is as gripping as Bardem’s.
That leaves Maggie Smith, who is adored by the Academy. She has two Oscars and is on a new streak of greatness in “Downton Abbey.” There’s also a small camp of people who want to throw “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” a bone. She’s my fifth.
Directing
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck – Argo
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Dark Horse: Tom Hooper – Les Miserables, Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master, Michael Haneke – Amour
Save for predicting what the Best Picture nominees would be if there were only five, directors have more of a narrative behind them and their films than anyone else. This year’s crop is ripe with stories.
Spielberg is in for sure. He’s the legendary American director taking on an American legend even greater than he is. Affleck is also in for sure. People feel “The Town” and “Gone Baby Gone” have been underrated, and with “Argo,” Ben Affleck has now been cemented as a serious American filmmaker for a new generation. Not only that, as a director he’s mounted his “comeback” to the A-list. And Bigelow is surely in. Winning Best Director before was previously seen as an accolade long overdue. Now Kathryn Bigelow is a Hollywood woman with a lot of power, and it’s scaring some people.
If logic serves, “Silver Linings and Les Miz” would round out the top five, but my money is on Ang Lee to steal Tom Hooper’s spot, not O. Russell’s. Lee was working on the visionary 3-D landscape in “Life of Pi” long before people had any clue what “Avatar” was. In doing so, he took an “unfilmable” novel on the silver screen, arguably advancing what cinema is capable of. “Les Miz” is well liked, but did Hooper go above and beyond the Broadway musical? The Directors’ Guild just spoke today by snubbing O. Russell and including Hooper, but O. Russell is a big part of that film’s style and dry humor. And you know what? “Silver Linings” is just the better film.
The last two dark horses I have listed are Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Haneke. No one would question that the two are the auteurs behind their respected films, and nominating one of them would be the conciliatory way of overlooking either “The Master” or “Amour” for Best Picture. Terrence Malick got a nomination last year after all.
Best Original Screenplay
Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Amour – Michael Haneke
Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal
Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
The Master – Paul Thomas Anderson
Dark Horse: Looper – Rian Johnson, The Intouchables – Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano, Flight – John Gatins, Seven Psychopaths – Martin McDonagh
The screenplay categories are where the Academy can cover their bases in case something gets snubbed or in case they want to honor something that really doesn’t have a chance elsewhere.
That’s why “Looper” is a very powerful dark horse. It would be Rian Johnson’s first Oscar nomination, but he’s got some stiff competition from PTA, who the Academy may not respect as a director, but certainly do as a writer. “The Master” would be his fourth screenplay nomination.
The same can also be said for “The Intouchables,” “Flight” and “Seven Psychopaths,” which is specifically about the writing process.
Confusing the whole issue is the Writers’ Guild. If “Amour” and “Django” were eligible for that prize, they’d far and away be seen as strong contenders and not underdogs.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo – Chris Terrio
Lincoln – Tony Kushner, John Logan, Paul Webb
Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell
Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeithlin
The Perks of Being a Wallflower – Stephen Chbosky
Dark Horse: Les Miserables – William Nicholson, The Sessions – Ben Lewin, Life of Pi – David Magee
I said in my previous column that “Life of Pi” is not remembered for it’s dialogue, and it’s that very reason why I think it’ll be overlooked in place of the slightly more poetic “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” a film that captures the beauty of the world and the rugged dialect of the bayou.
My fifth pick then is “The Perks of Being a Wallflower.” Remember when “Precious” won because it had “based on the novel by Sapphire” in the title? Well what do you think The Academy thinks about an author adapting and directing his own cult novel? “Perks” has performed very well with the critics groups and even got a WGA nod. It’s got a much better shot than something like “Les Miz,” a story pretty faithfully adapted from a play. Such devotion prevented the nominations of “Rabbit Hole” and “Carnage” in previous years.
Additional Categories
Below the jump I look at the technical categories in the race, which I’m not fully equipped to predict, but play ball with me here. Maybe I’ll have a good prediction streak.
If all serves from these tech categories, here’s my overall count for Oscar nominations per film.
Les Miserables – 10
Lincoln – 10
Skyfall – 8 (That sounds high)
Django Unchained – 7
Zero Dark Thirty – 6
Silver Linings Playbook – 6
Life of Pi – 6
Argo – 5 (That sounds low)
The Master – 5 (That sounds high too)
Beasts of the Southern Wild – 3
Amour – 3
Anna Karenina – 3
Cloud Atlas – 3
Moonrise Kingdom – 3