Who all will be nominated for the 2014 Oscars on January 16.
The day has come. Everyone’s had their say, and the Oscar nominations are only days away. In one corner we have strong consensus on some absolute great movies, movies that could sit on any year’s Best Picture list and be stronger contenders than they are here. And in the other corner you have controversy, bitching, stewing and whining that maybe just about all of these are overrated to some degree. I mean, we knew “Spring Breakers” wasn’t about to be nominated, but does the Academy really think there are 10 better movies this year than “Before Midnight”?
It’s easy to get exhausted by all the bickering, but then that’s criticism, and that’s the Oscar race. It isn’t every year that we get three, maybe four plausible winners in such a vast field.
I tend to enjoy Oscar nomination morning even more so than Oscar night itself. There are more chances for surprise, for curveballs, snubs and the opportunity to pick the winner. Maybe not everyone is aware that Cate Blanchett’s Oscar win this year will be a foregone conclusion (watch me eat those words), but there’s a lot less certainty when it’s so close to being over.
This year my predictions have gone back and forth, but not as much as you might think. Movies like “Rush,” “August: Osage County” and “Fruitvale Station” have been pushed to the margins as the months have passed, and “Her” and “American Hustle” have emerged as more than gems. But this crop of films that we started with back in October has stayed mostly constant because all of them have been as good, if not better than expected. No amount of prognosticating, statistics and snubs can take all that away.
Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
American Hustle
Her
Captain Phillips
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
Nebraska
Inside Llewyn Davis
This remains a race between “12 Years a Slave,” “Gravity,” “American Hustle” and to a lesser degree “Her,” and it’s most exciting to know that not one is the runaway favorite. “12 Years” may be in the lead, but “American Hustle” pulled the hat trick of being recognized by all three guilds, the DGA, PGA and WGA.
“Captain Phillips” and “Saving Mr. Banks” seem like safe fifth and sixth bets, both studio films but one with an edgy action pulse and the other a family friendly affair full of Old Hollywood nostalgia.
A bigger question mark however hangs over “The Wolf of Wall Street,” the most controversial of all the contenders, and “Inside Llewyn Davis,” which has been hit or miss. Opposite “American Hustle,” it pulled the hat trick of being snubbed by all three guilds, and yet it swept the National Society of Film Critics’ Awards.
The reason I feel both are getting in is the little movie no one is talking about, “Nebraska.” This movie has quietly remained in the hunt despite only mild notices for its actors. Alexander Payne missed with the DGA, and no critics have really come to bat for it. But is there a fear that it can’t scrape together a measly 300 1st place votes? Both “Inside Llewyn Davis” and “Wolf” have that kind of love, despite the hate, and this will be a nine horse race for the third year running. Continue reading “2014 Oscars Final Predictions”
Here’s hoping Fall 2013 is a lot better than the summer.
This summer movie season was so ho-hum that the films that were so hyped mere months ago will fade into oblivion as soon as September gets going. Yes, gems like “Frances Ha” and “The Spectacular Now” may be revived by critics come Top Ten list time, but as a stacked fall continues to impress, movies like “Blue Jasmine,” “Before Midnight” and “Fruitvale Station” seem less certain to make appearances come Oscar night.
As I’ve done in seasons past, I’ve made clever groupings for the huge batch of films coming our way, and since my excitement ranges from pretty solid to thrilled for most of them, they’re now grouped by “type” instead.
Keep in mind that some of these movies will have tentative release dates, some have not yet picked up a date or distribution in America, some will only get extremely limited Oscar qualifying runs at the end of the year, and some might not end up coming out this year at all.
Destined for Awesomeness
Gravity – October 4
Not all films can be described as jaw-droppingly good looking by a trailer alone, but the fascinating POV, 3-D effects in Alfonso Cuaron’s “Gravity” certainly can. Will the narrative be sustaining enough with just Sandra Bullock floating through space? Early reviews say hell yes.
Captain Phillips – October 11
“Green Zone” was too much Bourne in Iraq, so it’s refreshing to see Paul Greengrass take on another real-event inspired story with a new actor. Tom Hanks could earn an Oscar nod for his hybrid action star turn.
12 Years a Slave – October 18
Last year Leo played the Southern slave owner, and this year Michael Fassbender gets that juicy role. Just about anything would be more Oscar friendly than “Shame,” but Steve McQueen should bring some much needed darkness to this story.
The Wolf of Wall Street – November 15
The trailer that produced the most mesmerizing gif of the year looks no less enticing. Scored to Kanye’s “Black Skinheads,” Scorsese’s Leo-led drama with Matthew McConaughey and Jonah Hill looks to be a mad romp set to cap a year full of “have-more” movies.
Inside Llewyn Davis – December 6
Though considered a more modest Coen Brothers film, Oscar Isaac and “Inside Llewyn Davis” took Cannes by storm with its ‘60s folk rock charm. I hope to see it as the closing night film in the Chicago International Film Festival.
American Hustle – December 13
Oscar pundits are saying third time’s a charm for David O. Russell, who is reuniting his casts from “The Fighter” and “Silver Linings Playbook” (and throwing in Louis C.K. for good measure) for a con artist drama. If you thought the hair styles looked silly in “Argo,” wait till you see this.
Her – December 20
Spike Jonze’s return to feature length films since 2009’s “Where the Wild Things Are” features Joaquin Phoenix in a rare sympathetic and vulnerable role in which he’s falling in love with his Siri-esque computer voiced by Scarlett Johansson. It looks lovely.
The Wind Rises – N/A
New Miyazaki movie? Yes please! This story about a Japanese fighter plane designer during World War II reminds of the early Studio Ghibli film “Grave of the Fireflies” and looks to be Miyazaki’s most adult movie yet. Continue reading “Fall Movie Preview 2013”
You should know that I don’t really consider the year over until all four and half hours of the Oscars have aired, so I have no reason to do a 2013 movie preview just yet. There are more than enough blogs with lists that’ll tell you there’s a new “Star Trek” movie coming out or that there are a half dozen superhero sequels and reboots set to clog up the summer.
Frankly I’m more interested in the movies that absolutely no one’s heard of yet, but suffice it to say there are a few already that have piqued my interest. So these are just the movie guy movies that don’t have established fan bases nor require plot speculation. I can be comprehensive next season.
Inside Llewyn Davis – Coen Brothers (TBD)
If you’ve called yourself a film buff in the last 10 years, how could a new Coen brothers movie not by at the top of your most anticipated list? Their new film is a dramatic foray into the world of 60’s folk rock. Oscar Isaac, who you might recognize as Carey Mulligan’s (also starring here along with Justin Timberlake) husband in “Drive,” plays the title character, a New York based producer modeled off the life of Dave Van Ronk.
“Prisoners” is the first English language film from the French Canadian director Denis Villeneuve, who brought us the excellent Oscar nominated drama “Incendies.” “Prisoners” has an absolutely terrific cast including Hugh Jackman, Jake Gyllenhaal, Paul Dano, Maria Bello, Terrence Howard, Viola Davis. The screenplay, however, by the writer of the unfortunate “Contraband” has been on the shelf awhile as it changed casts and directors.
Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron (October 18)
Alfonso Cuaron is supposedly attempting an unbroken take that lasts for 30 minutes in his new sci-fi “Gravity” (who does he think he is, Bela Tarr?) starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. If he pulls it off, it’ll be mighty impressive considering that it’s being shot in 3-D.
To the Wonder – Terrence Malick (April 12)
“To the Wonder” was almost universally hated when it premiered at the Venice Film Festival last year and was pushed back to 2013, and frankly, the trailer was edited in such a way that if you were to make a parody trailer of what a Terrence Malick movie looked and felt like, this would be it. If there’s less buzz surrounding it than Malick’s untitled Austin, Texas music scene movie that apparently stars everyone, that’s because “To the Wonder” is a companion piece to “The Tree of Life,” even going as far as to use some of the same footage. Granted, it could still be a masterpiece.
The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese (TBD)
Yes, Scorsese pictures with Leo in them are great and all, and this one about a crooked NY stock broker seems to be more up Marty’s ally than “Hugo” or “Shutter Island,” but the big buzz is that the screenplay comes from “Sopranos” and “Boardwalk Empire” creator Terence Winter. It also stars Jonah Hill (could we soon be saying TWO-TIME Oscar nominee Jonah Hill?) and Matthew McConaughey, who is no doubt on a roll.
Labor Day – Jason Reitman (TBD)
Thankfully not another idiotic incarnation of the “New Years Eve” and “Valentine’s Day” movies, “Labor Day” is Jason Reitman’s first real foray into drama. The screenplay is his own from Joyce Maynard’s novel about a depressed woman (Kate Winslet) who offers a ride to an escaped convict (Josh Brolin).
Side Effects – Steven Soderbergh (February 8)
“In some instances, DEATH may occur,” i.e. the best tagline ever. You know Soderbergh, no one is going to believe that you’re retiring if you keep putting out a movie every six months. “Side Effects” is a romance and thriller surrounding a depressed woman (Rooney Mara) and the doctor (Jude Law) providing her prescription medication. It should make for a good thriller, as Soderbergh is working with the same screenwriter behind “Contagion.”
Before Midnight – Richard Linklater (Sundance first, then TBD)
In “Before Midnight,” Richard Linklater is revisiting Jesse and Celine again another nine years after “Before Sunset,” which of course was the sequel to “Before Sunrise” from 1995. Both Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy are now credited writers in what is sure to be another intelligent and improvised character study.
This is the End – Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg (June 14)
I’m always wondering how some comedians today can make an outrageous and even groundbreaking web series or video and yet can continually make boring and cliché Hollywood comedies. Well, my prayers have been answered with “This is the End,” a movie that throws a bunch of celebrities together and lets them play off their own perceived screen personas in a madcap comedy about the end of the world. The Red Band trailer is hysterical.
I’m So Excited – Pedro Almodovar (March in Spain, then hopefully US before long)
It’s been nearly two decades since Pedro Almodovar has made a comedy, and he’s never made one with his two muses, Penelope Cruz and Antonio Banderas, both together. The trailer features three very gay flight attendants in very flamboyant colors singing the Pointer Sisters, so yes, I’m very excited.
The Place Beyond the Pines – Derek Cianfrance (March 29)
I have to keep telling myself this is not “Blue Valentine” meets “Drive.” It stars Ryan Gosling as a motorcycle stunt driver on the run from a cop (Bradley Cooper) in Derek Cianfrance’s follow-up to his indie darling. Both characters however are strong father figures, and this thriller uses that as a powerful theme throughout.
“The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His” and “Hers” (TBD)
“The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby” is actually two films, although I’m not sure what either has to do with The Beatles, if anything. One is told from the perspective of the husband in a troubled relationship (James McAvoy) and the other is from the wife’s (Jessica Chastain).
Oldboy – Spike Lee (October 11)
Yes, this is a remake of the IMDB Top 250 darling “Oldboy” by Chan-wook Park, who is ironically also releasing a movie this year, “Stoker.” It stars Samuel L. Jackson, Josh Brolin, “Martha Marcy May Marlene’s” Elizabeth Olsen and “District 9’s” Sharlto Copley.
Captain Phillips – Paul Greengrass (October 11)
I was disappointed with Paul Greengrass’s last film “Green Zone,” so I’m hoping for a return to form in “Captain Phillips.” He’s cast Tom Hanks in the title role as a captain dealing with the first of the Somali pirate hijackings that took place in 2009. The screenplay comes from Billy Ray, director of “Breach” and co-screenwriter of “The Hunger Games.”
“The Monuments Men” – George Clooney (December 20)
“The Monuments Men” will be George Clooney’s fifth film behind the camera. It’s a World War II story about art historians trying to retrieve artwork stolen by the Nazis. It’s rumored to star Daniel Craig, Matt Damon, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman and “The Artist’s” Jean Dujardin. Could be Oscar gold.
Ender’s Game – Gavin Hood (December 1)
“Ender’s Game” is one of my favorite childhood books I have no recollection of, a “Hunger Games” esque story in which kids are trained for intergalactic battle by participating in war games. Author Orson Scott Card was for a very long time hesitant to release the rights to the film, fearing that the movie would have to be very different from the book to be successful. Well, supposedly now it is, and he feels confident about the script. “Ender’s Game” is directed by Gavin Hood and stars Asa Butterfield, Abigail Breslin and Harrison Ford.
The World’s End – Edgar Wright (October 25)
Edgar Wright is returning to his collaboration with Simon Pegg and Nick Frost to create the third film in what’s known as “The Blood and Ice Cream Trilogy.” Despite being yet another comedy about the apocalypse this year, these guys are a tried and true pairing.
Sound City – Dave Grohl (February 1)
Foo Fighters front man Dave Grohl, in his quest to be everywhere at once, has now taken up documentary filmmaking with his debut movie “Sound City.” He’s gathered a huge flock of his rock star friends to discuss the joys of recording at a long forgotten studio called Sound City. The film will premiere at Sundance (and Grohl will be on hand with a performance by the newly formed Sound City Players) but will be available for download shortly thereafter.
A Glimpse Inside the Mind of Charles Swan III – Roman Coppola (February 15)
Roman Coppola’s (frequent Wes Anderson collaborator) second film could just be the most bananas comedy of the year, and not just because the movie poster is just one giant banana. Charlie Sheen plays Charles Swan III in this bizarre, surreal comedy starring Jason Schwartzman and Bill Murray.
Dead Man Down – Niels Arden Oplev (March 8)
The trailer looked pretty ho-hum, but Niels Arden Oplev gave me the biggest surprise of the year in his Swedish version of “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.” This English language film actually reunites him with Noomi Rapace in a crime thriller about a woman who seduces a mobster to seek revenge.
Movies you might think I’d be more excited for, but no
“The Great Gatsby,” “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire,” “Oblivion,” “Star Trek Into Darkness,” “Elysium,” “Pacific Rim,” “Sin City: A Dame to Kill For,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “Oz the Great and Powerful,” “Man of Steel,” “The Wolverine,” “Anchorman: The Legend Continues,” “Iron Man 3,” “Kick-Ass 2,” “Thor: The Dark World,” “The Lone Ranger”
